Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
While Apathy reigns in the three parliamentary by elections, with a turnout ranging from 24% to 33%, Labour has won all three seats, while UKIP has come second in Rotherham and Middlesbrough, and third in Croydon North (where the Conservative party came second).
The Tories came fifth in Rotherham, preceded by BNP and Respect.
The LibDems ... couldn't find them, but clearly the game is over for the Tory-LibDem Coalition.
In the case of UKIP, their support is rising rapidly, and the electorate will realise that a Tory vote is a lost vote, while a LibDem vote is lost anyway. So the next General Election could see Labour vs UKIP
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Fantasy Alexander. Typical by-election pattern that's all, we have seen it all before. UKIP will disappear back down the drain at a General Election.
Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
The Libdems actually lost their deposit again twice last night Alex as i understand it, fairly dreadful for them yet again. Labour had stonking wins in all three seats..Middlesborough, Croydon North and Rotherham. Their majority was down a tad since the last election in Rotherham only, but this was possibly more to do with the last Labour incumbent cheating on his expenses. Their majority increased in Middlesborough and in Croydon Nth.
" The Conservatives do not exist in the north of England any more " said Nigel Farage on a buoyant night where his party UKIP finished second in two of the votes. However a very optimistic headline there Alex claiming them to be the second party. They are nowhere near it. Until they start winning seats they cannot even be regarded as the third party. They have no MPs and I believe have no councillors either.
However where they do score is in robbing the Conservatives of a considerable bulk of their traditional voters...which led to the Michael Fabricant interjection last weekend. Whether these good results are anything more than just a protest vote as BarryW alludes to there is hard to say. They really need to start winning seats, when they do that they could get a solid momentum going, but they need to make that breakthrough fairly soon before the new found enthusiasm fizzles out with the voters.
Guest 698- Registered: 28 May 2010
- Posts: 8,664
It is ironic that UKIP's success in drawing away Tory voters would most likely to lead to Labour winning more seats than they otherwise would, resulting in a pro-EU government at the next election. We have already seen this phenomenon occur in Dover, when Gordon Cowan only squeaked in to the County seat because Vic stood against the Tories.
I'm an optimist. But I'm an optimist who takes my raincoat - Harold Wilson
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
ukip are the red's dream just as the traditional third party handing seats to the blues.
the scandal of the foster children doesn't seem to have affected the vote that much.
Guest 716- Registered: 9 Jun 2011
- Posts: 4,010
# 4 .....is that `closet` speak..................?
Guest 716- Registered: 9 Jun 2011
- Posts: 4,010
# 3.........yes indeed.....Rotherham......Conservatives ..........in fifth place behind BNP and Respect........
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Even I would have voted UKIP in that Labour cesspit on Thursday to give two fingers to their social services. You can do things like that in by-elections.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
the local reds distanced themselves totally to the council decision as you know barry, the electors seem to have reached the conclusion that it was not a political decision from the council but just a bad one.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Actually it would be nothing to do with the colour of the Council Howard. The matter was a decision by jumped up incompetent social worker p.c. addicts. It would have been a two fingered salute to the p.c. brigade regardless of political allegiance. If you look at the figures for that very low turn-out there may well have been many who thought the same.
Guest 745- Registered: 27 Mar 2012
- Posts: 3,370
Barry
the conservative party never won the last election out right
This was after the biggest bunch of w...... in history
The north is ready for the plucking, they don't like the conservative party because Thatcher and the party treated them with contempt, as a bunch of northern monkeys ,as they demolished the industrial north, On the alter of monetarism in favour of service industries and cheep Foreign imports.
Whether true or not , this is the way they see it and your parties going no where with out there votes.
You parties is to posh and rich serving for the voters.
Ok in London and surrey, but no-good in 2012 Briton.
The Scottish don't like you, the welsh would Bern you , and the north detests you .
You dismiss ukip and there commonsense blue labour polices at your peril.
Guest 693- Registered: 12 Nov 2009
- Posts: 1,266
I quite agree with Keith's last sentence in #11 - the Tories dismiss UKIP at their peril. The number of defectors from the Conservatives to UKIP must be alarming the Whips, otherwise we wouldn't be hearing talk of deals between UKIP & the Conservatives. Simply put, either Cameron addresses the growing apathy towards Europe within his own party or else he faces losing support to the one party who are committed to a referendum on Europe, rather than one with vague hints of one at some stage in the future.
True friends stab you in the front.
Guest 716- Registered: 9 Jun 2011
- Posts: 4,010
Conservative Party has been UKIP`ed.......how long will they be in the shadow..again...after the next GE ?.....
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
i doubt if dave really knows the depth of feeling on the europe issue by his m.p.'s, activists and core votes due to surrounding himself with yes men.
the impression i get is that he thinks it will all blow over if he ignores it.
nigel farage is slavering over the current situation, he knows his party have the upper hand and is refusing to do any deals.
Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
UKIP do have councillors, Paul. Both voted in as UKIP, and Tory councillors who have crossed over to them later.
In May 2010, UKIP scored 3.5% of the vote, their support has since trebled on average.
Yet, there are constituencies, such as we saw last night, where UKIP is the clear challenger to Labour.
For the Conservatives to stand with a candidate in such areas would mean wasting votes and assuring a Labour victory.
As many would-be and former Tory voters see this fact, they will inevitably abandon the blues, in particular as that party has an official stance on the EU which is to remain part thereof and expand it to other countries.
Or, they have a complete change of leadership, but that would only appeal to the Tory electorate if it came about before the next G.E., and with no more constant u-turns in their policy. Of-course this would mean quitting with the LibDems as Coalition partners.
One more thing, so long as our Joker (the Chancellor) keeps promissing us Austerity for years to come, the Tory party is as good as done and over with!
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
this piece does not put ukip as likely to become the second party but suggests that they could take over from the yellows as a stick to beat the others with.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-20554311Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
Yes I heard Nigel Farage on the steam radio last night saying the very thing..claiming the third position in British politics. Alex has jumped the gun a bit there claiming second position, but third position would seem to be up for grabs when you consider that the Libbdems are continually losing their deposits all over the shop. Even getting whipped ( ermm not physically ) by homely vicars at the polls. The two likeable Libdem geezers... Vince Cable and Simon Hughes... have been on TV spinning warmly about it being mid term in an unpopular government...you know the thing, the usual blarney..but really they are seen as untrustworthy beyond the pale, in an era of noted untrustworthiness they stand out.
The real test though for UKIP will come in the general election, I think I remember us saying this before while waiting for the previous general election. The time came and went and the UKIP still muffed it with no seats...they must make that breakthrough. Seats dear boy !..seats !
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
ukip have 2 problems come general election time as i see it.
a) europe is not the big issue when putting an "x" on the slip, william hague found that out to his cost with his countdown to the end of the pound.
b) voters under 40/50 have never known life before the eec.
Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
You're right Howard in as much as the EU is not the only major issue.
Whether or not UKIP have any policy on social equality changes when it comes to financial aspects is unknown to me.
For me the most important issue in this respect is a Wealth redistribution, or as Labour calls it, pre-distribution.
Minimum wages are too low, apprentice wages are too low for people under 24, the Public Debt needs addressing in a radical manner. House-prices need seeing to, speculation in the economy is a Plague. Private debts at horrendous interest rates are one of Britain's worst things on offer....
Unless a Party addresses these themes, and with a convincing programme, and that means a social one, that party will not make it to Parliament. This is also why the Coalition is on its way out.
Preaching Austerity Present and Future as the Tories do, they are doomed to failure.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
very intriguing as to who will be the blue to defect, the smart money would be on one of the new intake from last time.
