Keith Sansum1
- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,942
Back in the real world Alexander, and I stand by prediction
ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS
Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
Before it's news:
In a poll for the Independent out tomorrow, it can now be confirmed that ComRes has given UKIP 17%, +3% on last month's ComRes poll.
Conservatives are at 28%, -3%.
Labour is at 37%, +1%.
LibDems at 9%, +1%
Last week, Opinium also placed UKIP at 17% in a poll for the Observer.
While officially still the third party, UKIP is gradually creeping up on the Conservatives, many of whom are going over to the UK Independence Party. In fact, it appears now that millions of Tory supporters are preparing to throw in the glove and change to UKIP.
Spectacular announcements are in the air for the coming weeks as UKIP has reached the point of tipping the balance, when a Tory vote would appear a wasted vote.
Keith Sansum1- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,942
Im sure alexander you will come back to the real world soon
ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS
Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
Keith, the Tory party is expected to face oblivion at the next GE at this rate.
Before that happens, there will be a mass-exodus of support from the Blues.
It's already happening.
But Labour is also going down.
Actually I predict a rift within the Labour party, with a shift to the extreme Left on one side and a rupture towards the LibDems on the other. It's already happened once, in the 70s.
Ed Miliband hasn't got a majority among the population, and counting the no-voters, Labour at present could possibly count on less than 20% of the support of the electorate.
But UKIP is an ascending party.
Keith Sansum1- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,942
like i say alexander
you will wake up soon
ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS
Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
So I take it, Keith, you are a Tory supporter.
This has become quite clear from the sum of your posts in reference to UKIP.
By the way, at the last by-election, Labour came fourth. Have you jumped flagship to the Tories then?
Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
no the zippy do dah party.
Keith Sansum1- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,942
Alexander;
In the reaL World it isn't going to happen.
The only way UKIP could be a force to be reckoned with would be to actually win!!!!!
Eastleigh with lib dems at there worst still won!!!
yes labour did badly but it wasnt a seat labour expected to do well in
and yes the tories were humiliated
but UKIP still didnt win
still seen as a protest party thats all.
As I say alexander its about winning, anything else means nothing until they do
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howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
alex
things have changed since the 70's the yellows are more left wing than the reds.
Guest 715- Registered: 9 Jun 2011
- Posts: 2,438
You would not think so Howard when you see Clegg doing his nodding dog impression next to Cameron at Westminster.
Audere est facere.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
the grass roots of the party are seething martin, cleggy will do and say anything to keep his job as deputy prime minister.
Guest 715- Registered: 9 Jun 2011
- Posts: 2,438
As they should be Howard, Clegg and his henchmen achieving their dreams at the expense of the party beliefs.
Audere est facere.
Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
Keith, the swing of the balance from Tories to UKIP is still in process, and until there is a general election, it is quite impossible for any party to win seats in Parliament.
The exception being the by-elections, in which the UK Independence Party have a general tendency, in the English constituencies, of becoming second or third.
So if you are in reality a Labour supporter, then the last thing you'd want to see is Conservative and UKIP supporters uniting in significant - and sufficient - numbers around the UKIP banner.
By downplaying UKIP, and giving the impression the Tory party are "second", after Labour, you're only hoping that Labour will win, by banking on a split vote that would open the doors to your party at the next GE.
But most supporters of the Blues know full well that, in order to prevent a Labour victory, they would have to either vote one party (Conservative) or the other party (UKIP).
Incidentally, Keith, David Cameron has announced officially, two days ago, that the main priority of the Tories is to oppose Labour and prevent them getting in again.
That probably - and almost certainly - means the Conservatives are about to announce some pact with UKIP.
Once this happens, Keith, you will know for sure that Labour have lost, because the coming campaign will be against the Labour party, and both Tories and UKIP will put their strength together - probably in an electoral coalition.
DC has given up the idea of opposing UKIP, so a pact is on the horizon!
Keith Sansum1- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,942
Alexander
I will try to get you in the real world rather than you be disappointed in the future.
You admit that UKIP only comes 2nd or 3rd in bye elections so then why should anyone bother to vote UKIP in any future bye election(your words)
Without doubt UKIP is a second rate tory party, there is no doubt there, and no one would be surprized to see a future pact between UKIP and the mouse.
My comments haave been to try to help.
Without doubt a pact would probably see a returned tory largest party, but theres a lot of work to be done before that could be considered, The mouse has said UKIP is just a protest party and a lot of name calling, and that voters will return to the flock at the general election.
And Farage has been heard to rule out pacts.
As for cleggy, he knows he's on borrowed time
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howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Keith Sansum1- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,942
Not looking good for a pact then
ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS
Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
Keith:
"You admit that UKIP only comes 2nd or 3rd in bye elections so then why should anyone bother to vote UKIP in any future bye election (your words)"
These are not my words.
I have never launched a campaign against UKIP. and never suggested people should not vote for them.
My declared position on all this, also made known to the new UKIP chairman Dover and Deal a month or so ago, is that UKIP and the Conservatives need to make an agreement to prevent Labour getting in.
So DC's latest speech, that Labour is the Conservative's main challenge now, appears to be along the same lines.
DC's decision for an in/out EU referendum shows that the Conservative party is prepared to make major adjustments, and this could well become manifest in respect to their relations with UKIP too.
While not a member of UKIP, I've made known I'm prepared to take part in any UKIP campaign for leaving the EU, and will support them on issues I agree with.
So what you describe as "my words" above, are definitely not.
You're more than likely worried that ever more people will vote for an anti-Labour electoral alliance, and so are constructing speeches you wish to place in the mouth of anti-Labour campaigners.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
calm down alex its only a forum.