Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
barry,no chance of cleaver tatics from the tories,they would only do a u -turn and cock it up.
Ross Miller
- Location: London Road, Dover
- Registered: 17 Sep 2008
- Posts: 3,706
Again I find myself agreeing with Barry
If a referendum on leaving the EU is lost anytime soon we are tied in for a generation at minimum (same as the electoral reform one - we wont get another chance for 20 odd years)/
What we need to do, whether we are pro or anti the EU is renegotiate the terms of our membership to protect our economy and interests whilst the anti's await much more benign conditions in which to stage a "get out" referendum.
Whilst I am pro the intellectual concept of the EU, even I am concerned at the way the French and German political elite are pushing for greater integration and greater central control
"Dream as if you'll live forever. Live as if you'll die today." - James Dean
"Being deeply loved by someone gives you strength,
While loving someone deeply gives you courage" - Laozi
Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
Ross, I understand where your point is coming from, but to renegotiate membership of the EU would be unacceptable for the EU Commission and EU Parliament, because it would open a can of worms, and 26 other countries would follow suite, each trying to renogiate something.
It would be the end of the EU, so, for this reason, the EU Commissars and Parliament would prefer that our Country simply had a referendum and left, and so-by hold on to the remaining 26 member states.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
What a relief someone actually understand what I am saying. Thanks Ross
The electoral reform campaign had a big lead at the start of that referendum and look what happened (thankfully)
Make no mistake, an in/out vote will fall and the status quo will win.
One point, Ross - if we manage to get an agreement to a Swiss style arrangement we will effectively be out and there will not be any need for an in/out referendum, just to put the results of renegotiation to the public. If renegotiation fails then we can have a go at the in/out vote with a better chance of winning.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Alexander - I think that you just might be starting to see the tactics if you just think a bit more about it. I suspect though that the EU, already in difficulty, can be cohersed into a fundamental renegotiation.
Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
Barry, the EU Commission would never sign their own dismissal. They will never renegotiate. They'd rather hang on to 26 countries and see us out.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
ross,in my mind all 26 or is it 27 countrys have an input,somthing as large as the eu has to have some central control.this dose not mean loseing sovrinty to the eu,each country has its own goverment,contitusion and law making capeabilatys.the only way to move forward is all goverments to work together through debate.
Ross Miller- Location: London Road, Dover
- Registered: 17 Sep 2008
- Posts: 3,706
One option would be for similar arrangements as the Swiss or Norwegians - which would take us back to the original EFTA scenario that was envisaged as the successor to the Coal & Steel Community - sadly the political elite of France and Germany took it over and look where we are; with all the fall out from that (Greece anyone?)
there are of course other options that might start the sort of discussions Alexander rightly believes the EU political elites do not want, however the Council of Ministers sets the "strategic agenda" and more and more countries are moving away from centralism as envisaged by the EU Officials and French ruling classes; so it is not a foregone conclusion that a broader renegotiation would not stem from action by the UK.
"Dream as if you'll live forever. Live as if you'll die today." - James Dean
"Being deeply loved by someone gives you strength,
While loving someone deeply gives you courage" - Laozi
Guest 698- Registered: 28 May 2010
- Posts: 8,664
It's been brought forward because the leadership are terrified of a major backbench revolt. The backbenchers on the Tory side are particularly cross about the 3 line whip threatened by Cameron and many are likely to rebel.
I'm an optimist. But I'm an optimist who takes my raincoat - Harold Wilson
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
It is an issue that causes much passion and strong feeling in the Conservative Party, more and more so the Parliamentary Party reflect the ant-EU grass roots. Any aspiring candidate will kill their chances by claiming pro-EU credentials. We have to hope that calmer thought, reason and sense rules against that instinct which I certainly share that wants to force the issue sooner rather than later by way of an in/out vote.
Guest 698- Registered: 28 May 2010
- Posts: 8,664
That's all well and good Barry but the electorate are starting to want to see signs of renegotiation or an exit strategy. There's a danger they will see any such caution as procrastination and punish the Tories badly at future elections.
I'm an optimist. But I'm an optimist who takes my raincoat - Harold Wilson
Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
Barry, it doesn't make sense: you say there should be a renegotiation of EU membership.
The referendum that is being proposed in the Commons would have three questions put over to the electorate:
1 To remain in the EU
2 renegotiation of membership
3 To leave the EU
The PM Camers has said that there must be no referendum at all, and that the UK must remain committed to the EU.
This means that Camers will not renegotiate EU membership in any way whatsoever, and has no intention of doing so in the future.
His only declared commitment is that, if the EU seeks further "significant" absorption of British powers into the EU, then there would be a referendum on that particualr question, but not a renegotiation, let alone a referendum, of existing membership status.
D. Camers is totally committed to the EU as it is now. This is the crude reality.
As I've stated recently, I believe there will be a split in the Tory Party, as Camers is an outright leftwinger with Labour policies. Monday will see whether the Tory MPs who are in favour of either leaving the EU OR renegotiating present membership will have the courage to stand up and defy the PM.
If they do, many Tory supporters will follow them, if they don't, there will be a grass-roots defection from the Conservative Party.
From UKIP there is no wishy washy approach. It's in or out.
Barry, I have understood fully what you are saying, but you should read carefully what the PM is saying, as you do not seem to realise that you are kidding yourself if you think he will ever change the present EU membership status even by a iota.
Guest 725- Registered: 7 Oct 2011
- Posts: 1,418
So, erm, when exactly is the right time for a referendum? Next year? Five years time? When the economic outlook looks less bleak?
I think the simple solution is to ban voting in all general elections and let the three main parties decide what happens to everything. Everything!
As a high court judge decided some years ago when this issue came to a head under the bar stewardship of Gordon Brownnose a manifesto is not legally binding or words to that effect. Therefore, it seems to me, that whatever is promised before an election is worthless regardless of the party making promises and statements of policy.
Look these guys are the experts right? They know alot. They mix with famous people, rich people, bankers, pop stars, soap stars, Richard Branson and royalty don't you know.
If David Cameron thinks that a three line whip is necessary to put paid to a few right wing members of parliament even though he professes to put Britain's interests first then we should trust him. On this and every issue.
I mean he's been on the telly hasn't he? He must be right.
Guest 698- Registered: 28 May 2010
- Posts: 8,664
I think there will be a few surprises before the debate on Monday is over.
I'm an optimist. But I'm an optimist who takes my raincoat - Harold Wilson
Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
A surprise! Camers is sent to St. Hellens. But he is allowed to keep the title of "Emperor".
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Alexander - the government should whip against this motion and push strongly only for renegotiation, this is Conservative policy. It can then be that renegotiation which will end up with us effectively outside of the EU.
A referendum such as the one proposed will be a problem and will be divisive and could weaken the government's hand in negotiation. The LibDems will do all they can to oppose that one, for them renegotiation is the worse option of all three. They would prefer an in/out vote to scare people into staying in and to kill any chance we have of getting out for a generation or even forever.
Guest 649- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 14,118
If you did not know,telling you now ,that that the vote at Westminster has been forward to Monday 24Oct,but UKIP will still be outside.
Guest 698- Registered: 28 May 2010
- Posts: 8,664
I would like to see an amendment to emerge, calling on the government to start renegotiating our position ASAP with a view to a binding referendum at the end of this parliament. Then the details of the renegotiated position would be known and can be voted on. I think all sides except the libdems could swallow that.
I'm an optimist. But I'm an optimist who takes my raincoat - Harold Wilson
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
That is pretty much what we need Peter. The timescale though is a little optimistic as the LibDems will hinder that so I suspect that the result and binding referendum would then be put into the Conservative manifesto. Good political move as well. Grass roots and backbench hostility to the EU is increasing in leaps and bounds and a Conservative win at the next election will bring in a lot more ardent Eurosceptics and the out lobby will be far stronger.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
barry,cant see that happening what with all the pro/anti supporters nit picking and having there admendments put in.
