Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Leading Eurosceptic Christopher Booker writing in the Telegraph.
Ever since January last year, this column has had one persistent theme. When would the British people finally wake up to the potentially catastrophic consequences of the dramatic shift in Theresa May’s Brexit strategy revealed in her Lancaster House speech? Until then, it was reasonable to believe her repeated insistence that she wanted Britain, on leaving the EU, to continue enjoying “frictionless” trade “within” our largest export market. And the only practical way to do this would have been to join the European Free Trade Association (Efta) and thus remain in the European Economic Area (EEA).
But as soon as Mrs May slammed the door on this, it became clear that neither she nor her ministers had any real understanding of what it would mean for Britain to shut itself out entirely from the EU’s trading system, to become what it terms a “third country”. They clearly had no idea of how enmeshed our economy had become with that of the EU or how complex it would be to disengage from it. All we saw instead was our Government completely out of its depth, lost in one bubble of wishful thinking after another, of which Mrs May’s absurd “Chequers plan” is merely the latest.
Only now, after 16 months of talking ineffectually around the subject, has our Government come out with the first tranche of 80-odd papers to explain how we should prepare for the consequences of leaving the EU without a deal.
These tell us nothing more than what should have been obvious back in the days when Mrs May was still claiming “no deal is better than a bad deal”; and for detail and clarity they are not a patch on the 68 “Notices to Stakeholders” already issued by the European Commission to spell out the consequences of Britain choosing to become a “third country”. Yet even now, so poorly understood on this side of the Channel have been the implications of our leaving without a deal that this ragbag of papers has widely come as quite a shock, despite being airily brushed aside by the Brexiteers as another instalment of “Project Fear”. The ultimate irony is that what we are facing is not so much a “no deal” as the need for dozens of “side deals”, to be hastily scrambled together in the few months remaining, to keep sizeable parts of our economic activity functioning. And many of the most serious issues have not yet been addressed, such as how legally we are going to be able to keep our airports open and our aircraft flying outside UK airspace (let alone that intractable riddle of how to keep an open border in Northern Ireland).
The bottom line is that we are putting at risk a substantial chunk of our export trade with the EU worth £270 billion a year, or 14 per cent of our GDP, with all the implications for lost jobs, businesses and tax revenue that carries with it. Yet, tragically, without Mrs May’s fateful wrong turning in January last year, so much of this chaos could easily have been avoided.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
With so many Government ministers visiting the area it does show that they are aware of the devastating consequences of a no deal scenario.
https://www.kentlive.news/news/kent-news/spent-15-minutes-brexit-minister-1936722ray hutstone- Registered: 1 Apr 2018
- Posts: 2,158
Do you really think so, Howard? It read like the usual mixture of bland reassurances, unsubstantiated platitudes and, more often than not, vacuous PR guff to me.
I was amused by his admission that the had only ever experienced the cross-channel business as a passenger and had no knowledge of the technical aspects behind the operations. Just the man for the job of exiting the EU with special responsibility for borders!
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howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
The trouble is Ray that few ministers have little or no business experience at all otherwise they would know that there were no vast warehousing complexes standing empty so that goods could be stock piled. It seems clear to me that representatives from the shipping and haulage industries plus DHB and Eurotunnel should be consulted every step of the way instead of them voicing grave concerns and being fobbed off with "it will be alright on the night".
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howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Courtesy of the Sunday Times - confirming what many of us have been saying all along.
Customs brokers are bracing themselves for a surge in business after Brexit amid warnings that it will be almost impossible to meet demand if Britain crashes out of the European Union without a deal.
Trade specialists believe a hard Brexit would generate “far more business than we could ever handle” after Britain’s first official guidance urged companies to turn to brokers and freight forwarders.
“We’re going to be rather like a guy selling ice cream in a park with 10,000 people,” George Baker, chairman of a Felixstowe-based brokerage of the same name, said. “It’s going to be almost impossible to satisfy the demand.” Technical papers published on Thursday recommend that companies trading with the EU consider renegotiating contracts, investing in warehousing and buying customs software in the event of a no-deal Brexit. To help reduce disruption, businesses have also been advised to consult brokers, which help navigate much of the red tape that comes with trade, and forwarders, which receive and ship goods on their behalf.
Ministers were accused of issuing “rather patronising” advice to industry, however, after encouraging companies to recruit specialists which already handle much of Britain’s trade. Bryn Ward, managing director of UK Customs Solutions, said: “If it transpires that there is a virtual wall put up with the EU, then potentially I’m going to need a load more staff in order to deal with the extra declarations.”
He thinks it is unlikely that companies will be able to find enough suitable staff. “To be officially recognised as trained in this industry, it’s three years of on-the-job experience,” he said.
Describing the level of technical knowledge required, Paul Burness, managing director of HICS Worldwide, compared starting out with “working on your Ford on a Sunday morning and then going to a Formula One car”. Unlike markets such as the United States, customs brokers in the UK and across the EU are not required to hold an operating licence. Mr Ward will decide whether to hire more people later this year, but he said that even with more staff “there will be a line for us when you physically can’t take on the next customer”.
As business awaits confirmation of what Brexit will mean for British trade, specialists are doing all they can to build capacity come what may. Brokers dismissed advice for traders to buy customs software and arrange authorisations themselves, insisting this would be unaffordable and complex for all but Britain’s largest businesses. “It’s almost irresponsible to suggest the guy who brings in a handful of containers a month does this by him or herself,” Mr Baker said. Industry leaders also criticised a lack of detail in last week’s papers, with the British International Freight Association, which represents forwarders, highlighting questions over additional costs and government resources.
Robert Keen, its director-general, said that most visible trade between Britain and the EU is handled by freight forwarders and logistics professionals, who are aware of the concerns. “What members actually need is clarity on the arrangements that will be in place in the event of a no-deal scenario,” he said.
ray hutstone- Registered: 1 Apr 2018
- Posts: 2,158
All the freight forwarders of my generation have long since either retired altogether or simply moved on to other things, Howard. One of the things most forgotten in this whole worsening debate is just how much our supply chains and business processes have changed as a result of frictionless trade. We want our "just in time" economy but most have no understanding of the vast changes that have enabled it and are still needed if we are to protect it.
John Buckley- Registered: 6 Oct 2013
- Posts: 615
If you have half an hour or so to spare, this quality video of Daniel Hannan being interviewed for primarily an American audience is quite interesting ( well it will be for some ).
Jan Higgins- Location: Dover
- Registered: 5 Jul 2010
- Posts: 13,664
Sorry John not even a minute.
I have lost interest until we know what has been finally decided, I am fed up with all the guessing, biased pundits and whingers on both sides of the debate. I will be glad when we as a country know for definite what we are in for and can get back to some form of normality.
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I try to be neutral and polite but it is hard and getting even more difficult at times.
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John Buckley- Registered: 6 Oct 2013
- Posts: 615
That’s a shame Jan, but I know what you mean!
I thought though that this vid explains a lot in very clear detail about Brexit in a straightforward manner. But not too surprised that some are getting fed up with it all.
I happened to meet Dan Hannan a few years back actually and chatted for half an hour or so, he’s a really clued up guy and knows every trick that the EU has up their sleeve.
ray hutstone- Registered: 1 Apr 2018
- Posts: 2,158
I did watch the clip, John, although I admit my patience was wearing thin at the end.
If you're genuinely interested in what makes the man, then this objective article might appeal to you.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/29/daniel-hannan-the-man-who-brought-you-brexithoward mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Interesting read but I disagree with why Hannan was not used by the Leave side during the campaign. He is very similar to Nigel Farage in that he comes out with short bursts of "truisms" that have immediate appeal to some and to have two of the same would grate on people. Been a nice earner for him with a comfy pension to look forward to.
John Buckley- Registered: 6 Oct 2013
- Posts: 615
Thanks Ray, a very interesting and well written article, I enjoyed that.
Weird Granny Slater- Location: Dover
- Registered: 7 Jun 2017
- Posts: 2,861
'Pass the cow dung, my dropsy's killing me' - Heraclitus
ray hutstone- Registered: 1 Apr 2018
- Posts: 2,158
History repeating itself, WGS. I honestly had no idea that I was regurgitating something that had been consumed previously.
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howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Eye catching story about Panasonic upping sticks and moving to Amsterdam, the reality is that only 20 jobs are affected.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45351288John Buckley- Registered: 6 Oct 2013
- Posts: 615
It’s these companies/businesses prerogative to bugger off of course..........and likewise it’s mine not to use or buy from them again wherever possible!
ray hutstone- Registered: 1 Apr 2018
- Posts: 2,158
What choice do they have, John? You can hardly have a European HQ that won't be in Europe. Seems perverse to me to blame the company. There will be many more like them if things go on at this rate.
John Buckley- Registered: 6 Oct 2013
- Posts: 615
ray hutstone wrote:What choice do they have, John? You can hardly have a European HQ that won't be in Europe. Seems perverse to me to blame the company. There will be many more like them if things go on at this rate.
And there’s me thinking that the U.K. has always been in Europe?
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