howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Courtesy of the Sunday Times.
Theresa May has vowed to defy cabinet plotters, telling aides that she will not be bullied out of office by ministers or hardline Brexiteers opposed to her EU plans. The prime minister has decided to stand and fight if Tory MPs force a vote to oust her — declaring that she is content to “win by one vote”.
That means the rebels would need 159 MPs to bring her down, more than three times the 48 who would be needed to trigger a vote of no confidence. May’s decision comes as she faces crunch Brexit talks with the cabinet at Chequers this week and MPs revealed that six senior ministers are plotting to succeed her. The prime minister will warn hardline Brexiteers that they will have to remove her if they want to stop the government pursuing a Norway-style Brexit deal that will keep Britain closely aligned to EU rules on the sale of goods.
The Sunday Times can reveal that up to 20 MPs are preparing to run for leader if May falls and a handful are actively recruiting backers. They include:
■ Sajid Javid, the home secretary, who has invited middle-ranking ministers to discuss the future of the party. His allies have sounded out special advisers in other departments to join his team if he becomes prime minister
■ Michael Gove, the environment secretary, who has held “listening” sessions with MPs in which he has proposed the abolition of the HS2 rail project with the money to be ploughed into rail links in the north of England
■ Jeremy Hunt, the health secretary, is inviting groups of eight to 10 MPs to sandwich lunches in parliament to discuss the NHS in an attempt to further his hopes
■ Defence ministers are planning to enlist the support of the royal family to force May to accept the case for more spending, days after Gavin Williamson was accused of threatening to “break” the prime minister in a bitter row over military funding.
Downing Street staff fear the prime minister will face open revolt from hardline Eurosceptics after a cabinet meeting on Brexit at Chequers to be held on Friday and the publication of a white paper on Britain’s negotiating position the following Thursday.
A senior Tory said: “Theresa thinks that if there is a vote of no confidence she has to win by only one vote.
Neil Moors- Registered: 3 Feb 2016
- Posts: 1,234
So, not only do we have a cracking World Cup to put our trotters up to, we also have the very real possibility of the Tory party tearing itself to bits over Europe, yet again. Great stuff.
Bob Whysman- Registered: 23 Aug 2013
- Posts: 1,919
Brian Dixon wrote:bob,how you justify that when cabinet is throwing hissy fits because they don't a particular wording. conclusion mrs may has no chance of a decent Brexit.
Not sure what you mean Brian by ‘justifying’ my posting. I was merely highlighting the similarity between the real world buying and selling negotiating tactics and comparing the similarity so far.
The video link I posted was one, chosen at random, to highlight how negotiations by those who want to achieve their objectives need to approach them in order to succeed.
I am not saying for one minute that the course that they are taking is one that we would all agree with, as their are too many people involved with their own personal or Party agenda’s.
The vote was for out or to remain in the EU. I suspect you and many others who voted had their own views on the issue, but like you and I they had their own thoughts on what the outcome should be.
We probably all had our own reasons for casting our votes the way we did but some negotiators involved also see it in a personalised way too.
Perhaps someone could succinctly explain what the Brexiteers were looking to achieve and tell me Brian what did the remain voters really find so good by maintaining the Status Quo?
Do nothing and nothing happens.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
bob easy.
Brexit voted to leave.
remainers voted to remain.
and the government is making a pigs ear of every thing, with no forward planning from either side from the start.
Jan Higgins- Location: Dover
- Registered: 5 Jul 2010
- Posts: 13,658
Brexit and all the
guesswork and predictions that keep getting waffled on about are as accurate and interesting as the footy pundits prior to a match, I am fed up with all of it.
Brian Dixon likes this
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I try to be neutral and polite but it is hard and getting even more difficult at times.
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Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
you are not alone on that jan. god help us if they get it wrong.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
A well researched piece from the Sunday Telegraph.
In nine months, Britain will leave the EU and, if we leave the single market and customs union, the rules governing roughly half of our $750 billion trading network will change entirely. Major corporations, like Airbus and Honda, which rely on timely supply chains spanning the English Channel, warn that this would be a catastrophe. Pro-Brexit politicians claim these companies are overreacting, because the technology that already smooths the journey of non-European goods, like those Ethiopian roses, can easily be repurposed to manage EU trade. A journey through Britain’s trading system reveals the truth. The Brexiteer case isn’t “magical thinking”, as some in Brussels might claim, but nor is it simple and easy. The technology necessary to create the system they envision is already in the works and our ports have experience implementing such changes. But there’s a catch.
The systems required will take several years to develop and no one can invest a penny until the Government stops squabbling and decides what it wants. In Felixstowe and Southampton, home to two of Britain largest ports, cargo ships from far and wide come and go. At Felixstowe, I saw the CSCL Pacific Ocean dock, bearing 10,000 forty-foot containers. It weighs 360,000 tonnes and stretches 58 metres tall and 400 long. Yet, within fifteen minutes, before they are even offloaded, nearly all of the containers on it will be electronically cleared through customs and ready for pickup, using a software made by the British firm, MCP. In Southampton, it’s the same story. “On arrival, 95pc are good to go,” said Nick Loader, chief executive of DP World, the container port operator. He uses similar software made by CSNI. Software like this has vastly increased Britain’s trading efficiency. They act as electronic hubs connecting each link in the chain, from manufacturer to shipping line to freight forwarder to port operator to government agencies, so that data and notifications can ping back and forth instantly. “It’s pretty nifty,” said Matthew Bradley, chief execDublin or Dover to Calais, by contrast, are too short. And in the case of Eurotunnel, lorries legally pass from the UK “into France”, and vice versa, within minutes at border posts inside the terminal. There is another problem, too. Although the vast majority of non-EU goods are cleared before their owners even want them, some goods can be held up for several days. In Southampton, I saw why.
Patricia Gonzalez, a vet at the Port Health Authority, carries out customs checks. Above a crowded desk, her neat handwriting has filled several large whiteboards with lists of EU trade regulations. They specify the percentage rate at which thousands of products need to be inspected: Chinese tea, India spices, Vietnamese dragonfruit, Nigerian watermelons, Egyptian peanut butter, Serbian raspberries, and so on. There’s a column for the risks, too, like norovirus, pesticide residues or salmonella. Brexiteers like Jacob Rees-Mogg argue that such systems can work for EU goods. But a visit to the cargo operations of Eurotunnel in Folkestone tells another story.
The terminal sits huddled between the M20 and the rolling green slopes of the Kent Downs. On its ten platforms, up to 250 lorries an hour trundle onto trains, servicing immensely complex supply chains. Together, Eurotunnel and Dover handle £171 billion of UK-EU trade per year, over a quarter of Britain’s total. And there’s an important difference between this cargo and the containers at Southampton and Felixstowe: it travels on lorries. It’s called “roll-on, roll-off” trade. It rolls onto ferries or trains and rolls off onto motorways in another country, all within 90 minutes. It is this time cap that poses the problem, making EU trade “much more difficult”, according to Alan Long, chief executive of MCP.
Currently, it takes at least four hours from the moment a shipment’s paperwork is submitted until it can get the all-clear. In that time, the shipping line submits a “manifest”, a document about the goods, the freight forwarding company fills in a separate customs form, and all the data is sent to various government agencies, which examine it and issue a decision – all clear or hold for inspection. The software transmits the information automatically, but the data collection and decisions take time. Non-EU trade spends days or weeks at sea – ample time for the process. Trips from Holyhead to Dublin or Dover to Calais, by contrast, are too short. And in the case of Eurotunnel, lorries legally pass from the UK “into France”, and vice versa, within minutes at border posts inside the terminal. There is another problem, too. Although the vast majority of non-EU goods are cleared before their owners even want them, some goods can be held up for several days.
Button- Location: Dover
- Registered: 22 Jul 2016
- Posts: 2,907
Not at all bad, and good to see a couple of old mates voicing their experience. A handful of omissions though: no mention of Common Transit, of inland clearance, of certificates of origin, of EU "customs" procedures for our outbound goods and, finally, no mention of the fact that traffic volumes are more than double what they were when we last did all this. Sadly there is less land now than there was then.
howard mcsweeney1 likes this
(Not my real name.)
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
All out war on the PM now with Boris Johnson supporting the aggressive article by Rees-Mogg. The latest cunning plan from the PM goes before the cabinet on Friday and we can safely expect it to be rejected and even if passed the EU would rubbish it straight away.
PatrickS- Location: Marine Parade, Dover
- Registered: 19 Sep 2015
- Posts: 447
ITN’s Robert Peston’s take on what the PM is intending to put before the Cabinet at Chequers on Friday makes interesting reading.
No doubt mostly the work of Olly Robbins with PM approval, and designed to provide, allegedly, a THIRD way having abandoned the earlier attempts to keep us, in all but name, in the single market and the customs union, it remains to be seen how much of TM’s promises of taking back control of our borders, laws and money (Mansion House Speech and PM’ ‘pledge’ 2 March 2018) remain intact. Do we trust her to deliver on those promises as a leader of integrity who can be trusted to deliver what she promised?
I can only guess what arch Brexiteers will make of it, and what reaction, nay action, they might take if said promises do not come to pass.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
This will give impetus to those who want a close relationship with the EU after we leave.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44704561howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
PatrickS- Location: Marine Parade, Dover
- Registered: 19 Sep 2015
- Posts: 447
The answer to all this is quite simple.
1. Tell the EU bureaucrats we have negotiated in good faith, without any sign of a similar response from them.
2. Withdraw from further EU prevarication. No money. No ECJ jurisdiction.
3. Retain our open borders for goods coming into the UK from the EU (or more accurately from our friends in Europe).
4. Control Immigration in a sensible way that means we decide the criteria.
5. If the catatonic bureaucracy in Brussels wishes to impose border controls and restrictive tariffs on UK exports let them try. European Countries will soon be up in arms if they cannot gain access to UK goods in an unrestricted and financially advantageous way. Result: Revolt. The break up of the European Union, the loss of control over the 27 by unelected and power seeking bureaucrats from an unreal institution who will do anything to keep their grip on real Europeans and real European Countries.
Just my view and there will be plenty who wish to differ or rubbish no doubt. But sometimes the simplest ideas are the best.
Bob Whysman, John Buckley, Paul Watkins and
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Bob Whysman, John Buckley, Paul Watkins and Jan Higgins like this
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
The main problem is that the money hand over has been agreed already, in fact that seems to be the only thing agreed. The Chancellor stated a while back that we had to pay it whatever happened with regard to any future relationship with the EU.
John Buckley- Registered: 6 Oct 2013
- Posts: 615
howard mcsweeney1 wrote:The main problem is that the money hand over has been agreed already, in fact that seems to be the only thing agreed. The Chancellor stated a while back that we had to pay it whatever happened with regard to any future relationship with the EU.
Yep, the first big mistake!
Bob Whysman- Registered: 23 Aug 2013
- Posts: 1,919
howard mcsweeney1 wrote:The main problem is that the money hand over has been agreed already, in fact that seems to be the only thing agreed. The Chancellor stated a while back that we had to pay it whatever happened with regard to any future relationship with the EU.
In exchange for what Howard?
I came across this article today:
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/981703/ireland-news-irish-election-leo-varadkar-fine-gael-fianna-fail-brexit?Do nothing and nothing happens.
ray hutstone- Registered: 1 Apr 2018
- Posts: 2,158
#2030 - Wouldn't it be lovely if everything was that simple? Unfortunately, it isn't.
Your use of the phrase "good faith" belies the fact that we are entwined in many legally binding commitments to the EU which we entered into in good faith. No coercion - just agreements made in full, democratically endorsed willingness by our elected government.
The "don't pay them a penny brigade" have grown noticeably quiet since negotiations have developed. Not that they care personally because pretty much all of them are sufficiently well-healed to have no fear of the economic doldrums with which the rest of us would be blighted.
It's simply because the civil servants, the much maligned realists in this horrid saga, have finally made them understand that any country which renegues on its debts in a global market can expect to bear the consequences of that decision. We rely upon our income from taxes but also upon our ability to sell government bonds as a means of borrowing. Sadly, we've been reliant on the latter for rather too long. If we chose the unilateral path of opting out of accepted commitments, then the value of UK bonds will surely fall as the market reacts.
The prospects are not pleasant. That's why even the bigots and idiots like Rees-Mogg and IDS have held the fire on that particular argument.
As for the many other arguments - environmental, human rights, crime, anti-terrorism et al - I just run out of energy.
Button- Location: Dover
- Registered: 22 Jul 2016
- Posts: 2,907
Charlie tweeted: "Cross-Channel operators say they can 'absolutely' deliver Brexit border preparations. We must keep the £240bn of trade that passes through the @Port_of_Dover and @LeShuttle flowing."
The actual evidence to the Select Committee went like this:
Q678 Charlie Elphicke: Let us say the day after the referendum orders had gone out from the Treasury and the Home Office to immediately prepare for all scenarios and prepare for no deal whatsoever, would we have been in a position from March next year to be prepared for every eventuality? Do you think we could have done that?
John Keefe: It all depends on what the requirement is at the time. The specification is where we are at the moment. Once we have that specification, as in industry we are very flexible. We are adaptable and we work across international borders; that is part of the world we are in. The important part is knowing which way to invest and the specification becomes everything.
Q679 Charlie Elphicke: With a clear specification for Brexit and what is expected of you, you would say, “We can deliver”.
John Keefe: Absolutely.
(Not my real name.)
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
ha, they can bareley cope now, tap has been on 2 days running with a 40 mph speed limit in on both days. schools break up within the next 3 weeks, when the preverbal crap hits the fan.