Reginald Barrington
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 17 Dec 2014
- Posts: 3,257
God I know the Guardian are a bit slow on the uptake but daily briefing the 3rd of March and they are only reporting it 2 months later, that's just plain incompetence!
Arte et Marte
Button
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 22 Jul 2016
- Posts: 3,057
Captain Haddock wrote:Meanwhile how ARE we going to keep them down on the farm now that they've seen Paris? If I were 'furloughed' on 80% pay (no travel costs or time) I suspect I might be far too 'frightened' to go back to work?
Hm. I daresay it won't be long before someone says it is the employer's responsibility to ensure that employees don't contract COVID19.
(Not my real name.)
Pablo- Registered: 21 Mar 2018
- Posts: 614
Isn’t hindsight a wonderful thing? Mind you, I’m sure he regrets that speech (and the actions described therein) for more reasons than pure embarrassment!
ray hutstone- Registered: 1 Apr 2018
- Posts: 2,158
#524. Oh dear, Reggie. I'm sure you know as well as I do that The Guardian covered Boris's hand-shaking boast on March 3rd as did all the main stream media. The point in the article that I linked to was that papers have just been released showing that SAGE advised against hand shaking before he made his pointless and damaging remarks.
Did you actually read the article and simply choose to ignore it? However much you may not like the facts about our PM, deflecting won't change them.
Reginald Barrington- Location: Dover
- Registered: 17 Dec 2014
- Posts: 3,257
I did read it Ray but I don't get your point, he also pointed to the then current advice during that briefing and it was reiterated by (forget his name off hand) presenting the briefing with him.
I assumed at the time the scientific advice to avoid handshaking was correct.
Arte et Marte
Neil Moors- Registered: 3 Feb 2016
- Posts: 1,299
I think it is established beyond any doubt that the UK was slow in reacting, with the hand shaking being textbook Boris - bravado and bullishness rather than intellect and fact. The Public Inquiry will be fascinating.
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ray hutstone- Registered: 1 Apr 2018
- Posts: 2,158
Only if the findings are ever published, Neil. And that is far from something we should take for granted.
Captain Haddock
- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 8,101
Boris shakes hands with Corovirus victims - bad call.
Princess Diana does same with those with HIV - good call.
One presumes both working on best medical advice at that time?
"We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"
Dr. Hunter S Thompson
Captain Haddock- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 8,101
If you could stop the #CoronaVirus, but had to sacrifice one English county, which county would it be? And why did you choose Merseyside?
"We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"
Dr. Hunter S Thompson
Weird Granny Slater
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 7 Jun 2017
- Posts: 3,071
Ross Miller wrote:WGS - there is likewise no evidence that not implementing some or all elements of the current restrictions would have had an impact on infection and death rates. Whilst there is some degree of correlation between the imposition of restrictions and reduction in infection and death rates I agree that this cannot be taken to evidence causation. I do suspect however that there is some causal link between reduction in proximity on mass and the reductions in R0 seen in many countries.
RM, the burden of proof is on the person making the claim. And the claim is that 'lockdown' (trashing liberty and the economy) reduces infections and death from covid-19 (or 'saves lives' if you prefer a slogan). No evidence has yet been offered to substantiate that claim, and without evidence it remains simply an assertion without foundation.
It's not my job to find that evidence. But anyone attempting it will be in a tight spot indeed. There's not even correlation, let alone causation. Deaths peaked on 8 April; infection precedes death at the very least by 14 days; 'lockdown' began on 23 March, 16 days before peak deaths. Clearly 'lockdown' has had zero effect on 'saving lives'.
'Suspecting' a causal link is, of course, not establishing one. We're in this mess because dodgy scientists entered dodgy data into dodgy scientific modelling and came up with conditionals, and milksop politicians sucked it up and locked us up. Enough of 'might' and 'could' and 'suspect'. Our problem now is that those who hitched their wagons to the 'lockdown' express want to disengage but don't know how to without ruining their careers and reputations.
'Pass the cow dung, my dropsy's killing me' - Heraclitus
Captain Haddock- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 8,101
'Gizza job. I could do that'
?s=19
"We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"
Dr. Hunter S Thompson
Weird Granny Slater- Location: Dover
- Registered: 7 Jun 2017
- Posts: 3,071
Simple really.
'Pass the cow dung, my dropsy's killing me' - Heraclitus
Button- Location: Dover
- Registered: 22 Jul 2016
- Posts: 3,057
Weird Granny Slater wrote:Our problem now is that those who hitched their wagons to the 'lockdown' express want to disengage but don't know how to without ruining their careers and reputations.
...the burden of proof is on the person making the claim.
No evidence has yet been offered to substantiate that claim, and without evidence it remains simply an assertion without foundation.
Yup.
(Not my real name.)
Jan Higgins
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 5 Jul 2010
- Posts: 13,879
I wonder who approved the specifications and order, I also hope the suppliers were not paid prior to delivery.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52569364
Surely instead of sitting in some warehouse even sub-standard is better than none and could be used in areas that are not so vulnerable to the virus.
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I try to be neutral and polite but it is hard and getting even more difficult at times.
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ray hutstone- Registered: 1 Apr 2018
- Posts: 2,158
This lockdown debate is interesting and has obviously engendered some strong opinions!
There is a lot of cynicism in IT circles about the worth of Imperial College's code (Ferguson - whose predictions precipitated lockdown and is now 'off games'). Eyes would glaze over if I linked the relevant articles but here's a management summary from just one:-
"All papers based on this code should be retracted immediately. Imperial’s modelling efforts should be reset with a new team that isn’t under Professor Ferguson, and which has a commitment to replicable results with published code from day one.
On a personal level, I’d go further and suggest that all academic epidemiology be defunded. This sort of work is best done by the insurance sector. Insurers employ modellers and data scientists, but also employ managers whose job is to decide whether a model is accurate enough for real world usage and professional software engineers to ensure model software is properly tested, understandable and so on. Academic efforts don’t have these people, and the results speak for themselves."
So WGS's views have some sympathy amongst the technical fraternity. That said, it is surely undeniable that this wretched virus is passed by contact with infected droplets from one human to another, either by air transmission or via a conduit. e.g. a door handle, a light switch and so on ad nauseam. Droplets passed through the air are, of course, the largest single method of transmission.
Common sense therefore dictates that this lockdown will have saved lives. To what extent it has done so is a matter of academic debate.
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Captain Haddock- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 8,101
?s=19
"We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"
Dr. Hunter S Thompson
Captain Haddock- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 8,101
So fried chicken makes you susceptible to #coronavirus as well as turning you all stabby? WTF is in Col Sanders secret recipe?
John Buckley likes this
"We are living in very strange times, and they are likely to get a lot stranger before we bottom out"
Dr. Hunter S Thompson
Neil Moors- Registered: 3 Feb 2016
- Posts: 1,299
The UK was just pathetically slow - the warning signs were there and we did the whole stiff upper lip, it's just mild flu thing. We're paying for that now.
Whether Prof. Ferguson's model was accurate - and if so how accurate, I don't see it would have made very much difference. Indeed, if we have been shown to be under-prepared in such worrying projections - who knows where we would have been if they were far less....
Reginald Barrington- Location: Dover
- Registered: 17 Dec 2014
- Posts: 3,257
That may well be so but I don't recall any of our Hindsight Oracle's on here demanding we be put in lockdown 2 months ago.
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Arte et Marte
Neil Moors- Registered: 3 Feb 2016
- Posts: 1,299
You're probably right, Reg. The furlough scheme changed everything - people knew that they wouldn't be punished for doing the right thing, in circumstances that were far beyond their control.