howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
just seen the exit polls if france and they are different to what i was expecting with hollande only 1 or 2% ahead of sarkozy.
the left candidate with around 10% has urged his supporters to vote for hollande in the second round but le pen got 19% of the vote and i would assume that would go to sarkozy.
80% turnout.
Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
it certanly looks like le chop for sarkozy,yet there could be a twist in the tail from the far right.
Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
This was essentially as suspected. Sarkozy filled predictions by becoming the first ever incumbent president of France, the resident president, to lose in the first round of a French general election. Francois Hollande, the socialist who previously had promised to tax the rich at 75%, took the win by gaining 28.6% of the vote to Sarkozy's 27.1%.
Ten candidates took part, so the vote was split over a wide range of people. The shock and some might say horror of the night was the fact that Marinne Le Pen of the National Front won 18.1% of the vote..thereby coming in third place.
The gap as it stands between Hollande and Sarkozy is relatively small, however pollsters predict that the eventual final result after the upcoming round two, remember the top two candidates fight on, will be a solid 55% of the vote to Hollande against Sarkozy's 45%.
So pollsters are expecting the lost votes of the other eight candidates to mostly go to Hollande. The only fly in the ointment in relation to that prediction, is that Marinne Le Pen polled higher than pollsters expected. If Sarkozy was to seduce her supporters into voting for him, both being right wingers although one much further right than the other, he could just win through. But as it stands most of the other candidates are throwing their weight behind Francois Hollande.
According to pundits Sarkozy is generally deeply unpopular in France right across the board, his own supporters apart, Carla Bruni his wife has not proved to be an asset. So to sum up...the next couple of weeks should be interesting with Sarkozy in effect fighting for his political life. If he loses he is clearly finished with bigtime politics, so things could get nasty and desperate.
Francois Hollande is not hugely charismatic, he is the ordinary man, the normal guy, the chap at the corner shop buying a bottle of milk and a bagette...but it looks like he is going to win and wont be cowtowing to Merkel on the EU stage. Further instability could be coming up for the Eurozone.
Here is the man himself as seen in post 10 but now the image becoming ever more significant..
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
i don't think it is cut and dried yet, i cannot see anything other than the far right vote going to sarkozy in the second round.
the french electorate turned out in their droves despite many saying that there was little difference in the manifestos.
Guest 745- Registered: 27 Mar 2012
- Posts: 3,370
The results should be a warning to all European leaders to stop ignoring the wishes of there people and start listening
Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
Yes there is a trend happening..populations are not going to put up with extreme austerity, particularly as they see it as the fault of others (bankers), not as a result of their own hard working endeavours.. There should be a warning in that for Cameron here. Might be nice in theory, BarryW pushes for more cuts in his blog, but we saw upset in the Netherlands this week and although the French election isnt over yet...Sarkozy has already had a bloody nose no matter what the final result will be. Hollande is not promising austerity on anything like the conservative scale..result so far...people like the sound of that.
Cut as much as you like perhaps...but come the election after same such cuts and you're out!
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
The whole problem is a creation of governments and their excessive spending habits.
Whatever wishful thinking, they have to get their budgets into balance and repay debt. Whatever politicians say to garner votes they will hit the hard wall of reality in office.
Guest 710- Registered: 28 Feb 2011
- Posts: 6,950
"The angle of incidence equals the angle of repose."
How any react when they "hit the hard wall of reality" depends entirely on their angle of approach.
Ignorance is bliss, bliss is happiness, I am happy...to draw your attention to the possible connectivity in the foregoing.
Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
Alas alas President Sarkozy has had another another body blow today in the French Election. Marinne Le Pen, extreme right winger, who surprised everybody by getting a large percentage of the vote in the first round, has not backed Sarkozy in a big rallying speech today. Sarkozy is of course a right winger too, a conservative, not as far right as Le Pen but was hoping to pick up some of her 6 million voters. An endorsement from Le Pen would have had Sarkozy rubbing his hands with glee.
But it didnt happen. She will spoil her vote, and by making such an announcement has urged her supporters to do the same. They wont back Sarkozy. Le Pen has her eye on the future, wanting to replace Sarkozy and his party and take up the mantle of the true opposition after Socialist Hollande gets in, which looks fairly certain now.
There is a televised debate tomorrow night across France between the two men...Sarkozy and Hollande. This is seen as Sarkozy's last chance as he has a reputation as a good debater. But as long as Francois Hollande doesnt shoot himself in the foot with an almighty clanger...it looks home and dried for him. He is between 6 and 10 points ahead of Sarkozy in the opinion polls. So, unless Sarkozy has been taking tips on resurrection from Lazarus, it looks all over...but of course with the usual proviso that its never really over til the fat lady sings.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
i was a bit surprised by the attitude of le pen but i think she may have over estimated her influence over her supporters most of whom would vote for anyone rather than a socialist.
will be much more fun if hollande wins as he is clearly a populist type who will make great play of upsetting mrs merkel and generally putting the cat among the pigeons on eurozone matters.
i feel sure he will go out of his way to annoy dave too.
Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
The French are not ones for quick political soundbites, no sir, which we did mention before. The debate last night proves that a politician needs real staying power under the French TV lights in order to make his mark. This much heralded debate lasted 2hrs and 50 minutes and was shown on at least 5 TV stations at peak time. Many TV stations were given over to it all night...with pre-match build up and after match analysis.
It was chaired by the anchors from TF1 and France2.
Hollande looked a bit nervous to begin with, he started it off, the point being he had it all to lose...being so far ahead in the polls. They sat across the table from one another, no lecterns, no audience, just grinding politics for nigh on 3 hours...with the two TV presenters, one female, one male, in between. Yet despite this grinding longevity, which you would think might put people off politics for life, not a bit of it..in fact on the contrary France gets massive turnouts on polling days.
Sarkozy performed in his usual style, with lots of arched shoulders and waving arms, but he failed to score any kind of knockout blow. My feeling is that the polls will remain the same today and still much in Hollande's favour .
If Hollande wins, and its looking that way as we said, it will shake up the EU with its standard approach to austerity . Hollande is one for responsibility in finance but not a believer in austerity measures on anything like the same scale as is the current vogue. Polling day is this coming sunday.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
listened to a report this morning that suggested the far right supporters will abstain on sunday which seems out of line considering the evident enthusiasm for politics there.
we know about hollande's ideas of growth being the way out for france rather than the austerity measures that other countries are meting out, so there will be a head on clash with him and angela merkel.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Hollande, if he attempts to do what he says, will soon suffer loss of confidence in the markets, France will end up being downgraded and France will be paying higher interest on its borrowing even before the downgrade. That will mean even deeper cuts in time.
Expect a U-turn.
Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
Someone voiced a theory the other night on one of those rambling news channels that it is possible to whip, to beat, this recession by spending aggressively. The idea being you spend now and pay later. That traditional method we all grew up with!! The idea is serious though, in that you spend now but pay back in times of plenty. Everything is cyclical as we know, there is always boom and bust..as dear oul Gordie found out. But there could be something in this. This austerity is producing nothing, just yet more austerity and with no sign of growth.
But back to the cyclicals of boom and bust. We are now clearly in bust mode...the solution.. spend your way out of it and pay it back by taking the cream out of the boom when it happens. There is always a boom..eventually, but the puzzle is finding the quickest path to bring about its return.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
yes paulb things are flat at the moment,and cant see it getting any better,quite grim really.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Madness total and utter madness PaulB.
There is merit to increased spending on capital projects in a slowdown and, indeed for allowing a deficit to build up to maintain current account spending.... BUT - when. at the start of that slowdown, you already have a massive deficit and high debt then all you are going to do is create much greater problems.
Paul - the simple fact is that during a growth cycle you should allow economic growth and increased tax revenues to reduce and eliminate any deficit while repaying debt. Then at the start of the next slowdown you can allow a deficit and debt to build without economic damage.
The starting point in important here and at the start of the slowdown we were in a hopeless position thanks to the Brown spending spree from 2001.
Try doing what you said with your own credit card and see what happens.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
barryw,i know you are money wise,but with a reasonable spend ect it might just work.this idea has been banterd about for a few weeks now europe wide.but saying that lets wait and see if it works first.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
something has to be done as their are no signs of a recovery and people do not see a way forward which is a recipe for social unrest.
western governments will be looking very closely at what happens in france if the election result on sunday is as expected.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Hold on Brian - a 'reasonable spend' - we are far past that. The deficit is massive as is the debt.
It will not work and will lead us into a loss of investor confidence. The investors who buy government bonds do so because they are essentially a low risk investment and expect to earn a low coupon accordingly. If these investors see the UK government abandoning its deficit reduction plan make no mistake they will demand higher interest to offset the extra risks they will be taking. S&P have already warned the government that our credit rating is at risk.
Do what you suggest and we will end up with even higher cuts to make than now.
We are a hairbreadth away from a huge problem as Osborne has only been doing the minimum needed to settle the markets as it is.
Our deficit and debt levels are among the worse in the EU and, in fact, worse than many of the PIIGS who are in so much trouble over bond rates now. Only the deficit reduction plan and the fact that our currency is taking some of the strain means we are enjoying low interest rates.
Picture the effect of increased interest rates on business - any good done by 'stimulus' would be more than destroyed by the higher interest rates.
As I said - the starting point is the problem we have. The theory is good and it would have merit IF our finances had been well managed and had no deficit at the start of the slowdown in 2007 but we already had a structural deficit from 2005 and were incredibly weak.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
I should also point out that higher interest rates would also drive up sterling further damaging exports. As it is, the weakness of the dollar and Euro already means that sterling has been appreciating and ideally we need action to weaken sterling a little. This though is a difficult balancing act, another tranche of QE might do the job but a lot of pain will accompany that in a couple of years.
Our best hope for growth is a proper resolution of the Eurozone crisis but that does not seem to be on the cards. A planned and orderly break up of the Euro is the only way to support Europe's own austerity measures.
Our problems are of excessive government spending here and in Europe, doing more is just pouring petrol onto the fire that is already consuming us.
email: dover7@msn.com
