howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#1
couldn't find the thread on this one but it now looks like the momentum gained by mr sarkozy over the toulouse incident has been clawed back by the reds.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/surprise-surge-for-hard-left-could-scramble-french-election-results-7606818.htmlGuest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
#2
Mr Sarkozy is still in a better place than he was previously..just 1% behind Mr Hollande. But the real change in fortunes is the rise of Mr Melenchon who everyone thought was somewhere at the bottom of the no hopers. I saw him speaking on TV last night to a huge crowd, I beleive it was somewhere in the Parisien suburbs. Heck of a turnout.
As he is a left winger of the old school..even Keefy might vote for him, he is taking support away from Hollande. So...the extra perentage points Hollande enjoyed when he was well ahead of Sarkozy previously have moved over to Melenchon leaving Hollande in a slippery position. He must be praying Melenchon would just go away, as Melenchon's rise could in fact scupper the red side gaining power, by spreading the left vote between too many candidates.
Will those leftie supporters move over to Hollande as the vote gets nearer?
The other odd thing is the dip in support for the ultra right Mariene Le Pen...she is down 3 percentage points. Sarkozy's seductive approach to right wingers in the past couple of weeks has clearly worked and he has stolen the support from Le Pen.
Still all to play for and extremey close.
Guest 722- Registered: 23 Aug 2011
- Posts: 97
#3
One winner in the polls is abstention ! more and more people are saying that they will not be voting.
http://www.ladepeche.fr/article/2012/04/03/1322196-vers-un-record-d-abstentionnistes.htmlGuest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
#4
Ive made the link LIVE for you there Andy. Its easily done...just click on the URL box amongst the smilies and then type between the two little boxes.
Had a bit of trouble making it out as its all in 'Francais' but it looks like they will be getting something like a 26% abstention rate. Unless Im getting this wrong that would still amount to a big turnout in our terms. Off the top of my head the Bradford East turnout was just over 50%.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#5
sounds like a slightly bigger turnout than our normal general elections, by elections are normally lower, then council elections lower still.
Guest 722- Registered: 23 Aug 2011
- Posts: 97
#6
There is usually quite a high turnout for these elections. Last time around in 2007 for the first round it was 84%. In france the voting always takes place on a sunday, that might have something to do with it.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#7
i think all across europe elections are held on a sunday, ours is based on thurday being an early closing day many years ago.
even allowing for the more convenient day it seems that the french take their democracy more seriously than we do.
Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
#8
howard,i allways thought wednesday was early closing,well it was in dover at one time anyway.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#9
always thursday where i came from brian, when i first moved here the library and the shop opposite(whites) both had early closing days.
seemed such a relic from the past.
Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
#10
Here is a picture of Francois Hollande.. in case guys dont know what he looks like. He may well be the next French President.
The French Election is a complicated procedure..there is a first round and a second, as I understand it.. but Im not an expert on the French system by any means.
Although Sarkozy is probably favourite to win the first round it will be tight..after that, when the other votes for the other candidates are up for grabs, leading pundits seem to think that Hollande will then benefit and could most certanly win. Not all the candidates will make it through the first round, so their votes then become available to the frontrunners still left standing. This is where Hollande could be strong.
The large Melenchon vote will probably go to Hollande.
The Le Pen vote might go to Sarkozy. Interesting thing about LePen's slip in the polls ( she has been overtaken by leftie Melenchon). It happened after she promised to take France out of the Euro. Food for thought with that one.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#11
all sounds complicated, do we know the views of mr hollande on the euro and the general european issue?
Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
#12
I suspect the vast majority of EU Leaders would prefer Mr Sarkozy to win through. We have already seen German Chancellor Angela Merkel endorsing Sarkozy in this Election, an endorsement which was greeted with much tut tutting in France...
" keep out of it" screamed Hollande's supporters.
The reason why most EU leaders would prefer Sarkozy to remain is that he is very much involved in the current reforms, very much a main player alongside Merkel. Very much a signatory to all the treaties or aspects thereof. Things seemed to have stabilised a tad in the EU and this stabilisation is needed by all to gather pace and momentum. Disrupting the status quo now might be counter productive.
But an Election is an Election. And National Elections still of course play a huge part, and the EU will just have to deal with the outcome.
Hollande has said that he will seek to renogotiate certain aspects of the fiscal treaties, but as far as I know has no ambition to unsettle the Euro. If Socialist Hollande wins...he may have a strange bedfellow in the shape of David Cameron, who also is at odds with some aspects of the treaty. We could have a Conservative-Socialist Alliance...truly bewildering! If the Tory backbenchers were dead they would be swivelling in their graves! Fraternising with Socialists...heavens!!
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#13
New doubts and divisions appeared yesterday in the camp of President Nicolas Sarkozy, just a week before the first round of the French presidential elections.
A volley of four opinion polls showed President Sarkozy losing most of the ground gained in recent weeks on his principal rival, the Socialist candidate, François Hollande.
Three polls suggested that Mr Hollande was once again leading the President in
courtesy of the independent.
voting intentions before the ten-candidate first round of the election a week tomorrow.
All four polls showed Mr Hollande winning the two-candidate second round on 6 May with a landslide of between 57 and 54 per cent of the vote.
Further twists and turns are possible.
Other surveys suggest that the turn-out could be the lowest in the history of French presidential politics, potentially skewing the result.
Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
#14
Yes the latest opinion polls are a shocker for Mr Sarkozy. I think many pundits felt that despite being behind initially, that he would be able to turn it around...big name on the world stage and all that. Francois Hollande had made a solid start before Sarkozy joined the campaign trail and the feeling was once he Sarkozy got going, all would swivel around in his favour. But it hasnt happened. He did seem to pull close in the polls directly after the Toulouse shootings but it was a short term blip.
Overall it seems the French voter has fallen out of love with the Sarkozy's. Anything is still possible...but there seems to be a big rise in the left wing, with both Hollande and the further left Melanchon on a roll.
Keith Sansum1
- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,948
#15
clearly french take elections more seriously and hold there leaders in high profile
paulb;
yes lets get some more lefties into politics lol
ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS
Guest 725- Registered: 7 Oct 2011
- Posts: 1,418
#16
Keith I disagree. The French are still deluded enough to vote believing that a change of leadership might make a difference.
For the first time ever I really don't care who is elected in the UK for example. There really is no difference between the main three over here. Over there is more or less the same.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
#17
lets have a wait and see moment shall we,an outsider might win.
Keith Sansum1- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,948
#18
Philip;
on this we partly disagree, you are correct that the 3 main UK parties do little to re engage with the electorate, thus why politics in the UK is in such a mess.
it is nice to see real outspoken people whilst you may not agree with them
the bland style of politics at the moment is one of many reasons people switch off in the UK
LETS HOPE THE FRENCH Spark into action
and the UK comes up with some new outspoken and non bland politics
ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#19
courtesy of the telegraph.
On the question of the ECB's role in supporting growth, we French are going to open the debate," he told a mass gathering in Paris. "Europe must absolutely return to growth if it is not going to lose its footing in the world economy."
Mr Sarkozy criticised the "fixed rules in the Maastricht treaty", alluding to the ECB's price stability mandate. The US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate linked to both inflation and jobs.
The latest TNS Sofres poll shows Mr Sarkozy 12 points behind Socialist challenger François Hollande in a head-to-head race. Mr Hollande has made hay with calls for a shift in eurozone strategy and vows to rip up the EU Fiscal Compact - as well as "soak-the-rich" populism with 75pc tax rates.
Mr Sarkozy's switch in tack suggests he may have clung too long to Franco-German unity above all else, even after it was clear that Club Med shock therapy was spilling back into France.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#20
courtesy of the independent.
Confronted with plunging polls and deserting allies, President Nicolas Sarkozy faces the prospect of a rout in the two-round French presidential election starting this weekend, with senior members of his government already said to be certain of defeat.
Supporters of the front-running Socialist candidate, François Hollande, could scarcely contain their euphoria when they gathered in Lille for their last big rally on Tuesday night before French electors go to the polls on Sunday. They interrupted the candidate's speech endlessly with chants of "François president, François president".
"You are well informed," Mr Hollande quipped. "It is possible we are going to win. It's not certain... but, yes, I feel the hope rising."
New polls published yesterday suggested that Mr Hollande, 57, was leading the field of 10 candidates in the first round with up to 29 per cent of the vote. He had extended his lead over Mr Sarkozy to between two and four points. In voting intentions for the two-candidate, second round on 6 May, Mr Hollande now leads the President by a "landslide" margin of 14 to 16 per cent.
