Guest 698- Registered: 28 May 2010
- Posts: 8,664
Look at the evidence.
I'm an optimist. But I'm an optimist who takes my raincoat - Harold Wilson
Keith Sansum1
- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,942
You pick out bits peter on what he says
What he also said was going into losing the triple A status will make it more difficult for the Govt in the future
unlike other predictions that say it wont make any difference
ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS
Guest 716- Registered: 9 Jun 2011
- Posts: 4,010
Three days old.....
Economists expect UK to lose AAA credit rating......
Economists have predicted that the UK will lose its privileged AAA credit status in 2013, as the country continues to struggle with Chancellor George Osborne's defence of deep spending cuts.
According to a number of economists, at least one of the three main credit ratings agencies such as Moody's, Fitch or Standard & Poor's will declare the UK a bigger lending risk in response to Osborne's admission in the autumn statement that austerity will run for at least eight years until 2018, rather than the original five years.
The ongoing slow growth for Britain's economy and bigger borrowing add up to a greater risk that the UK will find 2013 tougher than expected.
All the major forecasters, including the Treasury's own Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), have downgraded growth in the UK for the coming year. The OBR said in its most recent outlook that growth in 2013 will be 1.2 percent down from the previous prediction of 2 percent.
It is said that unemployment would not significantly decline in Britain until at least 2017.
A reason for the downgrade in economic growth comes from expectations of the lacking in investment spending by businesses. Without investment in new equipment, the economy is likely to be affected over the longer term.
In November, France lost its AAA credit rating to top agency Moody's while the United States has been downgraded by Standard & Poor's since August 2011.
Moody's and Fitch already placed Britain on their "negative outlook" list suggesting it is possible for Britain to lose its triple-A status.
Keith Sansum1- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,942
Seems peter theres been a few economists/experts even recently giving an alternative view
ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS
Guest 698- Registered: 28 May 2010
- Posts: 8,664
I'm not disagreeing that the UK will probably drop to AA+ this year, that is what the market expects and those expectations are already priced into gilt and treasury bill yields.
I'm an optimist. But I'm an optimist who takes my raincoat - Harold Wilson
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
It is very strange the way this thread developed. Keith desperate to point score picks an old out of date quote made well before the UK went on negative watch and is trying to pluck an argument and disagreement where there is none. As Peter says a drop to AA+ is priced in already, despite record low interest rates, still kept low artificially by QE to compensate. Your failure to understand the point Keith is the cause of your trying to 'pick a fight' over this. Nothing is ever free in life and payback for this will come from inflation and the need for higher rates later to deal with it. We have a delicate balance going on here trying to handle the short term problems at the expense of longer term problems.
Those retiring now are the ones really paying the price as their retirement income is being hit by this. That is where the real scandal is, something Reg and Keith would focus on if they knew what they are talking about.
Economists are not giving alternative views on the mechanics Keith - they have different perspectives on what should be done. Personally I suggest staying well away from the ones who helped create the mess we are in as they are the least likely to have the solutions.
What Reg and Keith keep ignoring of course is what I alluded to previously. Without the Osborne deficit reduction plan and his public spending cuts we would already have lost the triple A rating and may well be AA negative now. That is where Labour would have led us. But of course, such a fact is not convenient for Reg and Keith.
Keith Sansum1- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,942
Barryw;
I put on the forum for debate the economist who had a different view to yours and peters
after this was peter said he couldnt find any alternative views on the web.
ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Keith - he is not offering a different view - that is the point. It was just an out-of-date comment, time has passed and the parameters for that have changed significantly over 18 months.
Keith Sansum1- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,942
What he was saying was that if it happened(and it's very likely) it's going to give the cobbled together govt problems
alternative to those posed by yourself and peter who have said it will have little affect
ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
barryw,some people aye.
Keith Sansum1- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,942
Not found anyone big enough TO GIVE ME A GOOD KICKING as yet(your words)
I appreciate you have a view, this guy was stating at that time if we get to where we are today that the govts are going to struggle Reg has added in the past 3 days other economists are predicting the same.
ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
kieth/barryw/reg,there is more to life than just politics,rumore has it that there are more inportent things to think and talk about.ok gezzers.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Keith Sansum1- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,942
S and P give some good insight
doesn't look quite as rosey
interesting article
ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS
Guest 716- Registered: 9 Jun 2011
- Posts: 4,010
The political problem for Osborne is his overall credibility.
He has `crowed` about the AAA rating for over two years.................he `boasted`continually about it when he could not /would
not answer questions on our total lack of economic growth.
If and when it is removed it is another `nail`..........
Keith Sansum1- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,942
Yes its a nail in osbournes coffin, but also the credibility of the cobbled together govt
ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Reg - I made the same point in #1921 about Osborne and the AAA rating.
I have also been saying consistently for a long time that he has not done enough to boost economic growth. The problem here is that for you it is a point scoring opportunity, whereas I have said what needs to be done to boost growth - all of which you would object to.
Keith Sansum1- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,942
So now we have agreement that the triple A is going, and the govt is going to struggle that much more with it's debt
And Osbourne has said for years he(we)must keep the triple A status
his credibility(if he had any) in the world has just again nose dived.
ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Still missing the point there Keith
Sad that your mob created this massive deficit, that caused the debt in the first place. Shame on everyone foolish enough to vote Labour and brought us to this plight.
