Button- Location: Dover
- Registered: 22 Jul 2016
- Posts: 2,900
Fortunately it didn't, though HMRC's VAT computer would've done left to itself, and another I know of would've failed in 2016 (no, I don't understand either) but was able to be retired early. The point I'm making is that it's prudent to prepare and even then, for a time (not indefinitely), things look set to get gutty around here.
(Not my real name.)
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Taken a year to get this far, I wonder what sort of fudge the two sides will come up with to get around the Irish land border issue?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/apr/18/brexit-first-talks-on-uks-future-relationship-with-eu-beginhoward mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Neil Moors- Registered: 3 Feb 2016
- Posts: 1,225
The way out is so clear - contrive to lose a vote in the HoC on staying in the customs union. That enables the Government to blame Parliament. Parliament can then blame the Lords. The Lords couldn't care less about being blamed. The blame essentially goes so far and wide everybody and nobody is implicated.
The result is that the Ireland border issue is immediately solved and the UK can still take control of its border in so far as people are concerned as CU doesn't come with any free movement of people commitments, (does it?). Boris, Gove et al could then sit back and say "oh well, the major concern around immigration is sorted out". The pound would also bounce back because it would be such an unexpected bonus and the City would be chuffed. The only people who would moan are the likes of Farage and Redwood but that will soon become background noise.
There you go, sorted!
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Farage writing in the Telegraph.
I like Boris Johnson and believe he played a crucial role in the campaign to secure Brexit in 2016. But a comment on migration and Brexit which he made in an interview with the Telegraph today is plain wrong and I cannot let it stand. He said: “Countries are democratically entitled to decide how open they should be. That was the problem with the EU - it fundamentally took away people's democratic ability to decide who could come. That was why it was right to take back control. It's not about migration, it's about control. It's about who calls the shots.” Although I agree with a lot of the points in this paragraph – the idea of taking back control being the most obvious - Boris is being disingenuous on the matter of migration. Millions who voted for Brexit did so precisely because they regard it as a massive problem.
What is worse is that Boris knows this full well. Regrettably, he appears – publicly, at least - to have been infected by the political correctness bug which has turned the British government into the biggest band of virtue signallers to run our country in its history. Of which more later. First, though, it cannot be said too many times: the EU’s open border policy has been ruinous for some parts of the UK, particularly communities in Essex, Lincolnshire and the North. In the decade from 2004, the year that the Czech Republic, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia joined the EU, about 2,000,000 EU citizens – many lacking professional qualifications and skills - came to live in Britain. That’s the rough equivalent of twice the population of Birmingham. There was no consultation about this. It was simply a consequence of Britain’s membership of the EU.
Socially, towns and cities changed significantly through the sheer concentration of numbers in which these EU citizens settled. Economically, the existing workforce was undercut, costing jobs and businesses. And practically, this influx put schools, housing, transport and medical services under huge pressure. Only a fool would pretend that this wave of immigration didn’t change the lives of those Britons most affected by it. And only someone with no experience of such upheaval would deny that it eventually caused widespread resentment.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Courtesy of the Sunday Times.
Theresa May’s team has privately admitted she may have to accept permanent membership of a European customs union, after a secret wargaming exercise concluded that even Brexiteers such as Michael Gove and David Davis would not resign in protest. The prime minister has insisted that the UK will leave the common tariff area so it can pursue free trade deals outside the EU. But one of May’s political team told a meeting on March 20 that she and senior aides “will not be crying into our beer” if parliament forces the government’s hand — a position that will enrage some Brexiteers.
The Lords voted last week to stay in a customs union and 10 Tory MPs are expected to do so in the Commons, overturning May’s majority. In the crunch meeting — attended by Oliver Robbins, May’s chief Brexit negotiator — officials predicted Gove and Davis would accept that outcome while only Boris Johnson and Liam Fox would be likely to quit. The foreign secretary has publicly said staying in a customs union would be “worse” than remaining in the EU. Gove’s stance was confirmed by four sources who have discussed the issue with the environment secretary. “Michael is not ready to roll over in cabinet,” one said, “but he recognises that the arithmetic is difficult.”
The revelations will be greeted with anger by hardline Brexiteers around Jacob Rees-Mogg, who have privately warned Tory whips that remaining in a customs union would prompt a leadership challenge.
A source familiar with the discussion said: “They sat in a room in 9 Downing Street when they were discussing Brexit and Olly Robbins came in. The discussion focused on what to do if parliament votes to stay in a customs union. Someone from the political unit at No 10 said: ‘We wouldn’t cry into our beer if we were forced to do this.’ The PM needs to go through the choreography of trying to leave but we might be forced to do it.”
Robbins has been pushing for customs union membership as a way of preventing a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic. The source added: “The civil service fast stream have a pool on who is going to resign first. All the money is on Liam Fox and then Boris.” Members of May’s Brexit war cabinet will meet on Wednesday to discuss trade before finalising the UK’s stance ahead of a crunch EU summit on June 29. In an effort to turn the screws, Labour is demanding the prime minister bring forward a binding Commons vote on whether Britain should remain in the union.
Neil Moors- Registered: 3 Feb 2016
- Posts: 1,225
Lol, see my early post! Seriously, it is fairly obvious that we will end up staying in the Customs Union, the question is simply how many twists and turns we take before we arrive there.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
I think the PM and her cabinet have been resigned to this for some time and it gives Boris Johnson the ideal opportunity to storm off in a huff and start to plot against the PM.
Jacob Rees-Mogg and Liam Fox will fancy their chances in any leadership contest.
ray hutstone- Registered: 1 Apr 2018
- Posts: 2,158
Anyone with half a gram of objectivity and sense knows that brexit will be a disaster. The main political protagonists are those who have absolutely nothing to lose in their own circumstances - Farage, Johnson, Rees-Mogg, IDS. All sufficiently well-heeled to have no personal fear of the consequences but will jump at the chance of getting their names in the history books, regardless of the reasons, because their previous political lives have been mediocre at best. So the "red lines" are slowly, relentlessly chipped away until one of these con men forces a leadership challenge. And bugger the rest of us and our descendents. I fear history will look back in bewilderment.
Button- Location: Dover
- Registered: 22 Jul 2016
- Posts: 2,900
Would someone enlighten us please as to how "staying in" or being part of a/the Customs Union with the EU is going to help and what with.
As to whether Brexit be a disaster or a success, it rather depends on your yardstick, don't you think - eg. economic improvement in the short or medium or long terms, decrease in net EU migration, and so on.
(Not my real name.)
Captain Haddock- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 7,478
'If no one went no faster than what I do there'd be a sight less trouble in this world'
Button- Location: Dover
- Registered: 22 Jul 2016
- Posts: 2,900
Indeed it does, though it's a "hard" border, with customs declarations in both directions and customs clearance on the border in both directions unless Common Transit is used. Switzerland is a CTC Contracting Party but not in a Customs Union with the EU, so my question still stands.
(Not my real name.)
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a-border-with-the-eu-works-for-the-swiss-it-can-work-in-ireland-after-brexit-jxv6qf9dh
You never learn do you Bob? Time to stand in the corner wearing a pointed hat with a big D stamped on it until you know the meaning of paywall.
Neil Moors- Registered: 3 Feb 2016
- Posts: 1,225
Switzerland is an EFTA member state anyway, isn't it? and a member of Schengen. I would be happy to follow the Swiss model!
Surely this was always going to end in a leadership challenge anyway....
Button- Location: Dover
- Registered: 22 Jul 2016
- Posts: 2,900
Switzerland is indeed one of the small number of EFTA states and accounts for a deal of customs clearance at Dover Western Docks (which in turn is under 5% of total freight - for at least the next 11 months). I dont know about its Schengen status, but I think it's relationship with the EU may be more bilateral than the EEA's free movement basis.
(Not my real name.)
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Courtesy of the Telegraph.
Theresa May will face a Cabinet split over a customs deal with the EU when she meets senior ministers on Tuesday ahead of a key Commons vote next month that could determine her future as leader. Eurosceptic Cabinet ministers including David Davis, Liam Fox, Michael Gove and Boris Johnson are expected to warn the Prime Minister that she must abandon plans for a customs partnership amid fears it could pave the way for a significant climbdown over Brexit. However Philip Hammond, the Chancellor, and other leading pro-European Cabinet ministers will argue that it is "premature" to abandon any of the Government's proposals for a customs deal with the EU at a time when negotiations with Brussels have stalled. "We shouldn't cut off our nose to spite our face," a Whitehall source said.
It came as Downing Street refused to rule out making a crunch vote on the Customs Union in Parliament next month an effective vote of confidence in the Prime Minister and her Government.
Pro-European Tory MPs have put their names to an amendment that would force the Government to strike a divorce deal with the EU that enables the UK to stay in a Customs Union - something the Prime Minister has explicitly ruled out.
The Prime Minister would face serious questions about whether she would remain in post if she lost such a vote, which could leave Britain unable to strike free trade deals after leaving the EU.
Mr Johnson, the Foreign Secretary, has declined to say whether he would quit if Parliament forced the Prime Minister to stay in the Customs Union. Defeat in a vote on a cross-party Trade Bill amendment would force Theresa May to radically overhaul her Brexit Ministers are expected to debate Britain's options for a Customs Union at a meeting of the Cabinet's Brexit sub-committee on Wednesday. The Prime Minister set out two options last month for a deal with the EU. The first, a "customs partnership", would see Britain collect duties for Brussels for goods arriving in the UK but intended for EU markets. Eurosceptics fear that this option is "unworkable" and will see Britain end up staying in the Customs Union, despite the Prime Minister's pledge to leave it.
Neil Moors- Registered: 3 Feb 2016
- Posts: 1,225
Getting exciting now. All the easy bits are done and we have arrived at the point where real decisions need to be made. I love the concept of an absurdly complicated "Customs Partnership" in the hope that people won't notice it is a "Customs Union" by another name. Like the "Transition" vs. "Implementation" period - it does look like our arguments still haven't developed beyond the terminology phase. Super stuff.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
I have noticed that David Davis has gone remarkably quiet of late even though he is supposed to be our chief negotiator.
Button- Location: Dover
- Registered: 22 Jul 2016
- Posts: 2,900
The NCP is indeed complicated and probably unacceptable to the EU. However, it was a Customs Union only so far as UK : EU trade is concerned - it would not have prevented the UK making its own deals with RoW countries, so long as the goods were not then traded with the EU.
(Not my real name.)
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352