Neil Moors- Registered: 3 Feb 2016
- Posts: 1,225
It certainly brings home the reality that many international companies invest in the UK on the basis that it represents a gateway into the EU. So, while the Japanese maneuvering is very likely to be because of the recent trade deal, it does underline what we stand to lose when we voluntarily remove ourselves from being that gateway.
ray hutstone likes this
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
All this talk about trade makes me think that all this would not have happened if the original EEC had stayed as a trading bloc. Come May anti EU parties are expected to gain most seats in the Parliament which would be a real kick in the teeth for likes of Juncker.
Button- Location: Dover
- Registered: 22 Jul 2016
- Posts: 2,900
3521: absolutely; 3522: maybe. The purpose of the (EU) tariffs in question is protection. Decide you don't need them and you compete on a level playing field with goods manufactured in Japan.
Meanwhile, from Mr Elphicke: "Replacing the NI Backstop with alternative arrangements to avoid a hard border will enable a successful exit from the EU & allow us all to unite on building an optimistic future for the UK - a clear plan from
@patel4witham @annietrev & @mariacaulfield". Blowed if I can spot the plan in
https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/02/priti-patel-anne-marie-trevelyan-and-maria-caulfield-the-government-must-honour-the-brady-amendment.html(Not my real name.)
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
We seem to be moving further in the direction of extension to Article 50, interesting comment from Lord Howard who is keen to leave in March with a "managed no deal" whatever that is.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-latest-theresa-may-warned-dozens-of-tories-could-rebel-over-no-deal-a4073641.htmlhoward mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Bit of a game changer going on over the last few days with John McDonnell acting like he is the leader instead of Jezza. When the resignations came in the former admitted the party had problems and invited the disaffected to speak with him while the latter went into a sulk. Today McDonnell stated that the party was moving in the direction of supporting another Referendum which Jezza has always been against with no response from the party leader.
Add that to the fractures in the party opposite we can expect high drama over the next five weeks in the Commons.
Keith Sansum1- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,572
Yes
I don't think this time Mrs may will rush into an election although now is probably the time she could get quite a majority
ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
The magic money tree helping to make consultants even richer.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47338534Neil Moors- Registered: 3 Feb 2016
- Posts: 1,225
Didn't Mrs May say that she would not lead the Tories into the next General Election? This is why I think she'll ultimately walk away from the ERG, as she has already given them the ultimate scalp of her own future. She has nothing to lose on that front.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Courtesy of the Sunday Times.
A vicious cabinet war erupted last night over a plot by senior ministers to delay Brexit, as Theresa May looked certain to shelve plans for a Commons vote on her deal this week. Five cabinet colleagues rounded on Amber Rudd, calling for her to be sacked after she publicly threatened to defy the prime minister by voting to delay article 50. The work and pensions secretary was singled out by cabinet colleagues as the ringleader of a cross-party campaign to stop Brexit. She was accused of seeking to further her own leadership ambitions.
The party was plunged into fresh bloodletting after May was warned she could be forced to quit within weeks should her Brexit deal go through. Rudd, with David Gauke, the justice secretary, and Greg Clark, the business secretary, sparked a furious backlash after they vowed to delay Brexit unless the prime minister secures a breakthrough on her deal. In comments that are likely to escalate the row, Phil Wilson, a Labour MP, told The Sunday Times that he has held secret talks with cabinet ministers to gain their backing for an amendment that would open the door to a second referendum. Wilson said: “It’s a massive step and what’s important is the reach we’re also having among Tory MPs.” The move comes at the end of an extraordinary week that saw three Tory remainer MPs quit the party to join eight former Labour MPs in a breakaway Independent Group.
May was facing an uphill battle to unite her warring party as cabinet ministers called for her to stand down after the local elections. They warned that if she refused, she would be ousted by the end of the year anyway. Speaking at the National Conservative Convention outside Oxford, the prime minister said the party’s focus on delivering Brexit “must be absolute”. She added: “We must not, and I will not, frustrate what was the largest democratic exercise in this country’s history. In the very final stages of this process, the worst thing we could do is lose our focus.”
Today, May will leave for Sharm el Sheikh, where she is due to discuss Brexit on the margins of an EU summit with Arab leaders and meet Donald Tusk, president of the European Council. However, with Downing Street playing down the prospects of the prime minister striking a “deal in the desert”, the chances of her bringing forward a meaningful vote on Brexit this week look slim. Instead, May is expected to use a statement to parliament on Tuesday to ask MPs for more time to rework her divorce agreement with the EU — the third time she has postponed a decisive vote on her deal since she was defeated by a record 230 votes in January. Unless parliament votes through a Brexit deal before Wednesday, MPs are likely to be asked to vote this week on a motion that would effectively take no deal off the table and force the prime minister to seek to delay Britain’s departure from the EU.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Rod Liddle writing in the Sunday Times.
My feelings on the morning of June 24, 2016, were of euphoria and excitement, tinged with that horrible, nagging worry you sometimes get when you have just taken off on a long-haul flight and can’t quite remember if you’ve left the gas oven on. And so you gingerly look out of the plane, as it ascends over Kent, to see if there is evidence of fire engines and smoke down below. Trepidation, then. I mentioned this to my wife that morning as David Dimbleby and the pundits were still wailing in the BBC studios. “Don’t worry,” she said with a little bitterness, “they won’t let it happen.” No, indeed. But who they? The liberal Establishment, of course. But more crucially, the House of Commons. Until last Monday there were nine political parties represented in the Commons, of which eight were in favour of remaining within the EU. Oh, and a sole independent — she was for remain as well. But then, last week, a political tornado blew apart this unrepresentative consensus, with the formation of an exciting new outfit, the Independent Group. So now we have a House of Commons where, in effect, 10 parties are represented, nine of them in favour of remain. Plus Ian Austin, bless him, who is for leave.
The Labour MPs deserted for three reasons. First, they were in danger of losing their jobs through deselection, either because they opposed Jeremy Corbyn’s policies (Gavin Shuker and Chuka Umunna) or didn’t hate Jewish people with sufficient vigour (Joan Ryan) or were actually Jewish (Luciana Berger). The more noble reason was that they all professed an antipathy to the anti-semitism of Jeremy Corbyn and his Momentum lunatics. But, third, what they all had in common (except Austin, which is why he hasn’t joined them) was that they were for remain and a second referendum. This is the main thing that ties them together, other than a perfectly reasonable dislike of “Magic Grandpa”, as Julie Burchill calls Corbyn. This was reinforced when they were joined by three Conservatives — Heidi Allen, Anna Soubry and Sarah Wollaston — who have been among the most vocal opponents of leaving the EU.
The other thing they all have in common is that they are social liberals — but then, so are 550 of their parliamentary colleagues. I do slightly wonder why they didn’t just join the Liberal Democrats, except I suppose it would be like jumping out of the frying pan and into a very small saucepan of blancmange that is being inexpertly stirred by Gandalf over an eco-friendly hob powered by a wind turbine. But it does mean that the pitch is once again queered against us leaving the EU. The three Conservative absconders are a warning to Theresa May that the side she has to placate are the remainers, otherwise more defections will follow, she will be told; they are waiting now, Theresa, even as we speak. That she has already given in, countless times, to their demands, and been forced to negotiate in Brussels having had her most potent weapon — a no-deal Brexit — prised from her hands, time and again, by these same people, will not make a difference.
That is where the primary threat lies. And with each threat May cedes more ground. The defections also strengthen Brussels. Article 50 will be kicked long and hard down the pitch, much as May’s chief negotiator, Olly Robbins, suggested when he was pissed one night in a bar in Brussels. Not put back a month or two but deferred for much longer. “Don’t worry, they won’t let it happen” has always seemed the most likely outcome of our referendum. The lip service MPs paid to respecting the voice of the people is fading before our eyes. Meanwhile, anyone fancy a new party? Pro-leave, socially conservative, economically redistributive? Just to redress the balance a little?
Captain Haddock- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 7,482
Give it a month.
Right now many Labour MPs in Brexit voting areas (i.e. almost anywhere other than Londonistan) will not join the group whose common currency is that they are all anti Brexit.
Post Brexit there will be a mass of defections from middle of the road Labour MPs who see the only way to save Labour and become electable is the formation of a Labour Party in waiting, a sort of red SDP.
'If no one went no faster than what I do there'd be a sight less trouble in this world'
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
The PM has now changed from "we leave on the 29th March" to "it is within our grasp to leave on the 29th March", the likelihood is a 2 month extension.
Neil Moors- Registered: 3 Feb 2016
- Posts: 1,225
You're right, Howard. The issue has subtly changed from whether there should, or should not be a delay to simply how long that delay should be.
Interesting (and stunningly simple) theory I read yesterday, and that I had not previously considered, is if the EU gets in first and offers us an extension without us asking for one. That would be politically significant as crashing out with no deal would then clearly be the fault of the UK and not the EU.
Ross Miller likes this
Captain Haddock- Location: Marlinspike Hall
- Registered: 8 Oct 2012
- Posts: 7,482
We will leave on 29 March. The rest is noise.
Guest 3065 likes this
'If no one went no faster than what I do there'd be a sight less trouble in this world'
Neil Moors- Registered: 3 Feb 2016
- Posts: 1,225
I reckon the chances of that happening are somewhere between 0 and 10%, Captain.
I see Donald Tusk and Merkel both happy to talk about an extension now - and let's be honest, the one thing politicians love is more time, to do anything! It is going to (broadly) play out how Olly Robbins described - the PM's deal or a delay, the question is how much the ERG is ready to risk its life ambition for the sake of perfection.
Brian Dixon, ray hutstone and howard mcsweeney1 like this
ray hutstone- Registered: 1 Apr 2018
- Posts: 2,158
The certainty of the Captain's assertion means that an extension is almost inevitable
Guest 3065- Registered: 10 Jan 2019
- Posts: 145
We will leave march 29th
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
yeah we will leave on march the 29th 2022.
Neil Moors likes this
Jan Higgins- Location: Dover
- Registered: 5 Jul 2010
- Posts: 13,657
Guess work and yet more guesswork both on here and in the media, we need absolute facts as at the moment nothing really matters but facts.
Guest 3065 likes this
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
I try to be neutral and polite but it is hard and getting even more difficult at times.
-------------------------------------------------------------------