John Buckley- Registered: 6 Oct 2013
- Posts: 615
From a personal perspective I’d say that’s a fair summing up of the current situation.
Mind you, since learning that house prices are set to tumble due to Brexit etc., I’m now feeling a little bit miffed. I’d hoped in time to flog my abode here, make a killing and buy a place abroad with mega gardens and two swimming pools. Unfortunately I’ve had to reevaluate the situation and it’s likely that I’m now going to have to only settle for a single medium size pool instead........life’s a bitch eh, but hopefully there’s still time to be given a chance to vote the right way!
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Matthew Parris writing in the Times.
In Arthur Cash’s biography of that audacious 18th-century agitator for constitutional reform John Wilkes, the author remarks that Wilkes’s lifetime spanned “the American Revolution, which he admired, the French Revolution, which he hated, and the Industrial Revolution, which he did not know was happening”. Let’s not be caught out this time. Revolution is in the air. Indulge me, then, in a little crystal-ball-gazing, because it’s time to talk about referendums, who organises them, and how. Those who want a new referendum on Europe must face questions about how, when and by whom this still-anomalous bolt-on to our constitution is to be organised. If we Remainers are scornful of the Brexiteers’ refusal to propose an alternative, we must not make the same mistake ourselves. This discussion is becoming urgent: another vote on Europe is moving fast from the highly unlikely to the distinctly possible. Let me suggest why.
Only the broad outlines can be discerned of the proposed exit deal that Theresa May’s negotiators and the EU are working on; but these will be a development of the “soft” Brexit proposal agreed at Chequers earlier this year. Hardline Brexiteers hate it. There is little enthusiasm anywhere for the plan. There is, however, a growing suspicion that this may be the only available common ground with EU negotiators. That’s why I’ve been writing since the beginning of August that Theresa May stands a fair chance of getting her proposals through parliament’s “meaningful vote” near the end of this year and I still think that. Staring into the muzzle of what could blast to smithereens a Tory government and very possibly Britain’s March 2019 exit from the EU, it would take nerves of steel (or brains of straw) not to blink first. Many Brexiteers will blink first. But not all. Steel nerves and straw brains can be found among MPs in the European Research Group. A dozen of these irreconcilables could sink May’s proposals.
There’s also a chance Britain and our EU partners will fail to find any agreement at all. The more Mrs May compromises, the more the irreconcilables’ numbers grow. I reckon the chances that her hoped-for deal is sunk either by Brussels or by her own MPs add up to about 40 per cent. Let’s suppose she does get a draft deal, then faces defeat over it in the Commons. What then? She won’t (let me guess) want to resign, and will need a good, democratic reason not to. To put her deal to the people in a national referendum would provide such a reason. Better still, announce that this is too momentous a decision for normal party whipping and make the vote on the deal a free one for government MPs. She could still lose her proposed treaty but, unwhipped, such a defeat would not be a resignation issue. But what next? The pressure for a referendum on her proposals would be strong. She has said she won’t countenance another referendum but in these unforeseen circumstances she might relent. Even if she did resign, demands for a general election could only be countered (I reckon) by an acting Tory prime minister pledging a referendum.
By different routes we keep coming back to a referendum as the constitutional logjam-breaker. Labour may finally go for this at its conference later this month. I still don’t think it the likeliest scenario (a government victory in the “meaningful vote” or a general election are equally likely) but I think there’s now a strong chance. So I’ve been talking to Lord (Andrew) Adonis, a key figure in the campaign for a “people’s vote”, and to Will Straw, on the board of Open Britain, which has joined that campaign. I wanted to know who would actually make a referendum happen, what the question should be and what this would do to Britain’s plan to leave the EU on March 29, 2019. Both accept that the current deadline for negotiating our departure from the EU would have to be extended. The Electoral Commission (which Straw says would supervise a second vote), would want a two or three-month period for the referendum campaign. Both men are confident our EU partners would agree to an extension for this purpose (“but not,” said Straw, “to play silly buggers” and string out the negotiations). Adonis believes parliament could “direct” the government to hold a referendum. The biggest problem is the wording of the referendum question. Straw suspects that the Electoral Commission “would want clarity, and would recommend a binary [two-option] question”. It should be a straight choice (both men said) between the government’s Brexit proposals and remaining in the EU. I put it to both that Leavers would call this a false dichotomy, insisting there were other options on offer. “These charlatans,” says Straw, “have held the country to ransom for years. They’ve had years to say what they propose. At least May is trying.” How about “no deal” as a referendum option? “There’s no such thing as no deal,” Adonis says. Even leaving on World Trade Organisation terms “leaves hundreds of agreements and arrangements we’d have to make with former partners”.
So if the hardline Tories’ European Research Group “can’t define what it is they propose”, he says, “how can we put it to a referendum?” But, he adds, “government has a duty not to put to people a proposal they don’t think can be implemented”, so any proposal has to honour Britain’s obligations to Ireland in our “backstop” undertakings to the EU over the Norther Ireland border issue.
My conclusions are these. If parliament rejects the government’s Brexit plan, a referendum could take place without (depending on its result) impeding Brexit. A six-month extension of the negotiation period could very likely be arranged. The referendum question should be binary, one of the options being to accept a Chequers-based exit proposal. In the absence of any other workable proposal the other option would have to be remaining in the EU. In Australia, the proposal to abolish the monarchy failed because abolitionists could not agree what to replace it with. I’d like to think Leavers would agree that this was fair enough. But on Brexit, nothing short of getting their way (whatever that is) will be accepted by them as fair. However, the proposal might command enough support nationally to solve what I believe may be a looming constitutional crisis. Let it not be said we sleepwalked into this. The time to start thinking about ways through is now. A new referendum is undoubtedly one of them.
ray hutstone- Registered: 1 Apr 2018
- Posts: 2,158
As far as you can use the word in politics at the moment, it is as close to inevitable as you can get that the deadline for leaving will be extended. Whether we have the collective intelligence or will to dig ourselves out of this morass, by people's vote or general election, remains to be seen.
Brian Dixon likes this
Guest 745- Registered: 27 Mar 2012
- Posts: 3,370
ray hutstone wrote:As far as you can use the word in politics at the moment, it is as close to inevitable as you can get that the deadline for leaving will be extended. Whether we have the collective intelligence or will to dig ourselves out of this morass, by people's vote or general election, remains to be seen.
this will end the Tory party, that's why it's not going to happen?
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
Guest 745- Registered: 27 Mar 2012
- Posts: 3,370
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
Good to see that this group have actually spoken to people that understand about customs clearance procedures.
https://www.kentonline.co.uk/deal/news/anti-brexit-group-on-bbc-inside-out-189643/Jan Higgins- Location: Dover
- Registered: 5 Jul 2010
- Posts: 13,662
Watching Breakfast this morning with its focus on Brexit it struck me, by the way they were talking, that virtually all the Remainers seem to have lost the confidence for this country to manage its own way in the future.
We as a nation have always overcome problems however big because of our believe we can do anything, a shining example being the last war where as a nation we did not really believe we would loose the fight. It also helped back then that we had strong leaders like Churchill, regardless of party loyalties they put this country's needs first and ignored their petty squabbles.
At the moment the politicians in Westminster of all parties need a kick up the backside and remember we picked them to fight for us not each other.
Brian Dixon, Reginald Barrington and Paul Watkins like this
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I try to be neutral and polite but it is hard and getting even more difficult at times.
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howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
The PM needs to get a move on with the negotiations as businesses have to know where they stand.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45561908ray hutstone- Registered: 1 Apr 2018
- Posts: 2,158
Jan Higgins- Location: Dover
- Registered: 5 Jul 2010
- Posts: 13,662
Nothing will be announced or decided until the very last possible moment on the very last day prior to our leaving.
Meanwhile the guesses will keep coming and the so called experts will keep waffling and the media will fill spaces.
Chris we could do with either a yawn or boring emoji.
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I try to be neutral and polite but it is hard and getting even more difficult at times.
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Pablo- Registered: 21 Mar 2018
- Posts: 614
Non-news Howard. Any sensible business involved in import/export of components and/or finished products needs to look at all their processes and make contingency plans in case it all goes pear-shaped after Brexit.
Companies who jump the gun and shift production abroad before then are a) adding to the problem and b) going to look pretty silly if we get a smooth Brexit.
Paul M likes this
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
The bookies are now offering odds of 3/1 of there being another in/out Referendum "before the end of 2019" which suggests they think the leaving date will be put back. Pretty generous odds in my view.
ray hutstone- Registered: 1 Apr 2018
- Posts: 2,158
Barnier is doing his best to placate the Tory right wing by disguising the realities of the Irish border issue. He wants May to stay in power (as do pretty much all the European heads of state). The fact remains, as it always has done, that the EU is a closed economic community which you are either in or you are out of. How long it takes for the UK public to grasp that fact will probably determine whether we have a second referendum upon the terms of Brexit. After 40 years of growth, prosperity and peace, the penny is finally beginning to drop that we will suffer greatly if we withdraw.
BTW - Jan Higgins - you never did respond to my post a while back when I asked you which particular EU law you objected to. I'd be interested to hear.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
A Treasury Minister on the radio earlier stated that if the Chequers deal falls flat then a second Referendum could be triggered - first one to break ranks.
Neil Moors- Registered: 3 Feb 2016
- Posts: 1,242
This, apparently, is what officials from No. 10 are saying as well. It's smart. To the Brexiteers it is saying that if they don't back this, their entire dream could be wiped out by going back to the people. To remainers, it is saying this is far, far better than what could happen if the lunatics on the right take control. You know what? it may just work.
howard mcsweeney1 likes this
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
Jan Higgins- Location: Dover
- Registered: 5 Jul 2010
- Posts: 13,662
ray hutstone wrote:
BTW - Jan Higgins - you never did respond to my post a while back when I asked you which particular EU law you objected to. I'd be interested to hear.
Almost all that the EU dictates we must obey that we as a population have had no say in, one that was mentioned this morning on the news.
Champagne can only be called that if it comes from that region, made elsewhere by exactly the same method using the same grapes has to be called sparkling wine. Cornish pasties must be made in Cornwall even though the ingredients could come from anywhere in the world.
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I try to be neutral and polite but it is hard and getting even more difficult at times.
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howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
That was one edict I rather approved of with the finished product being protected. Melton Mowbray pork pies, Cheddar Cheese and Parma Ham spring to mind.
ray hutstone- Registered: 1 Apr 2018
- Posts: 2,158
"Champagne can only be called that if it comes from that region, made elsewhere by exactly the same method using the same grapes has to be called sparkling wine. Cornish pasties must be made in Cornwall even though the ingredients could come from anywhere in the world."
Christ - If I'd have known it was as bad as that I would have definitely voted leave.