Weird Granny Slater
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 7 Jun 2017
- Posts: 3,073
The 'mature' wouldn't have missed my point.
'Pass the cow dung, my dropsy's killing me' - Heraclitus
Neil Moors- Registered: 3 Feb 2016
- Posts: 1,299
Huge jump in new cases over the last 48 hours. Whichever way you cut it, that's going to worry government - a lot.
Weird Granny Slater- Location: Dover
- Registered: 7 Jun 2017
- Posts: 3,073
Define what you mean by 'case', NM. If you mean 'someone who's ill' (i.e. the normal meaning, before it became convenient to change that) then there hasn't been 'a huge jump' at all.
'Pass the cow dung, my dropsy's killing me' - Heraclitus
Pablo- Registered: 21 Mar 2018
- Posts: 614
Unlike most countries, we are never given figures for recovered ‘cases’ nor for the percentage of ‘cases’ which are totally asymptomatic. Nearly 3000 new ‘cases’ yesterday and Sunday but still only just over 800 ‘cases’ in hospital and 54 on ventilators. WGS I presume you are referring to the guvmint’s habit of calling people who tested positive ‘cases’ even though they aren’t ill at all?
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Jan Higgins
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 5 Jul 2010
- Posts: 13,879
Yet another case of statistics being given to try and prove whatever fact the provider is promoting, maybe the scare tactic.
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I try to be neutral and polite but it is hard and getting even more difficult at times.
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Neil Moors- Registered: 3 Feb 2016
- Posts: 1,299
I mean people testing positive for COVID 19. To go from 1,500 cases to 3,000 on two consecutive days is alarming. Hopefully today is better news.
Ross Miller
- Location: London Road, Dover
- Registered: 17 Sep 2008
- Posts: 3,706
But surely that needs to be contextualized in terms of the number of tests carried out?
I mean if the higher number was from double the number of tests then we are sort of stood still...
"Dream as if you'll live forever. Live as if you'll die today." - James Dean
"Being deeply loved by someone gives you strength,
While loving someone deeply gives you courage" - Laozi
Reginald Barrington
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 17 Dec 2014
- Posts: 3,257
Exactly Ross, if they focus the testing in areas that have had a spike then naturally you would expect to see the numbers jump, I go with Jan on the scare tactic, might not be a bad thing though if it keeps people focused on the risks.
Arte et Marte
Neil Moors- Registered: 3 Feb 2016
- Posts: 1,299
Ross Miller wrote:But surely that needs to be contextualized in terms of the number of tests carried out?
I mean if the higher number was from double the number of tests then we are sort of stood still...
You’re right, Ross. But if it were, they would have said so by now. I see no possibility that tests doubled over those days. It is a known consequence that by lifting restrictions, the virus comes back. That would have been priced in already. The significant thing is that public attitude for a further lockdown is fairly low, I would have thought, so it’ll be interesting to see how this is handled.
Weird Granny Slater- Location: Dover
- Registered: 7 Jun 2017
- Posts: 3,073
Re #891. Not just the 'guvmint', P, but also the media, which uncritically relays. Big numbers impress.
Most 'cases' aren't really cases at all: a good many will be false positives and, of the rest, the majority are not ill. The only useful numbers are hospitalizations and deaths, and these are low. The truly big number is that of preventable non-covid deaths, the reality of which is shamefully obscured by our covid obsession.
John Buckley likes this
'Pass the cow dung, my dropsy's killing me' - Heraclitus
Neil Moors- Registered: 3 Feb 2016
- Posts: 1,299
That's the point - right now, numbers of new cases are rising and we debate what a "case" actually means, because we cannot yet see the consequence because it is mainly circulating among the young. But for sure, go on like this and it'll soon be re-circulating in those more vulnerable.
I agree with you though, WGS, it cannot and must not be COVID at the expense of everything else; it has to be COVID [U]and[/U] everything else.
Weird Granny Slater- Location: Dover
- Registered: 7 Jun 2017
- Posts: 3,073
Neil Moors wrote:...they would have said so by now...
You really believe that? Like they said that 7 testing centres opened in Leicester in the 14 days from 18 June to 1 July?
'Pass the cow dung, my dropsy's killing me' - Heraclitus
Ross Miller- Location: London Road, Dover
- Registered: 17 Sep 2008
- Posts: 3,706
My view is we need to know in order to gauge how serious or otherwise this is:
The number of daily tests
The number of daily positive tests
The age of those that test positive
The location of those that test positive
The number of false positives established on re-test against each day by age
The number of people who subsequently display symptoms by age
The number who end up hospitalised by the day they were tested and age
This is the only way we can track the spread of the virus, the infection rate, the number who have had the virus, the severity of any spike and the long term severity and mortality rate
"Dream as if you'll live forever. Live as if you'll die today." - James Dean
"Being deeply loved by someone gives you strength,
While loving someone deeply gives you courage" - Laozi
Neil Moors- Registered: 3 Feb 2016
- Posts: 1,299
Yes. If the jump was because of a doubling of tests, they'd be jumping up and down saying so. Instead, they rolled out JVT to reinforce the be vigilant message. But the UK is not alone, it's back everywhere. I'm afraid it's going to be wave after wave until a (working) vaccine is found. When one is found, the world will need to be vaccinated in just six months - a significant challenge.
Ross Miller- Location: London Road, Dover
- Registered: 17 Sep 2008
- Posts: 3,706
Yes but in order to understand where to offer vaccines and who to prioritise we need data
"Dream as if you'll live forever. Live as if you'll die today." - James Dean
"Being deeply loved by someone gives you strength,
While loving someone deeply gives you courage" - Laozi
Neil Moors- Registered: 3 Feb 2016
- Posts: 1,299
There’s a huge amount of work going on behind the scenes on that, as it’ll be a global effort. Check out
https://cepi.net/.
The bigger challenge may actually turn out to be who administers the vaccine? It’ll place a significant pressure on already overstretched health systems.
Weird Granny Slater- Location: Dover
- Registered: 7 Jun 2017
- Posts: 3,073
Neil Moors wrote:But the UK is not alone, it's back everywhere. I'm afraid it's going to be wave after wave until a (working) vaccine is found. When one is found, the world will need to be vaccinated in just six months - a significant challenge.
For a better Piers Morgan parody add a denunciation.
'Pass the cow dung, my dropsy's killing me' - Heraclitus
Weird Granny Slater- Location: Dover
- Registered: 7 Jun 2017
- Posts: 3,073
This will disappoint a lot of people:
'Pass the cow dung, my dropsy's killing me' - Heraclitus
Neil Moors- Registered: 3 Feb 2016
- Posts: 1,299
Who would be disappointed by that? It’s good news.
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Jan Higgins- Location: Dover
- Registered: 5 Jul 2010
- Posts: 13,879
Neil Moors wrote:Who would be disappointed by that? It’s good news.
I agree plus many of the vulnerable (us oldies or those with medical problems) will have either died or recovered.
Until everyone has been tested for anti-bodies and the results analysed figures mean very little.
Bob Whysman likes this
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I try to be neutral and polite but it is hard and getting even more difficult at times.
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