Keith Sansum1
- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,942
ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS
Guest 688- Registered: 16 Jul 2009
- Posts: 268
I think we maybe in the economic grip of something far stranger and far larger than the old party allegiances can deal with Keith.
Keith Sansum1- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,942
ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS
Guest 688- Registered: 16 Jul 2009
- Posts: 268
Keith Sansum1- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,942
ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
john
i have been banging on about that for ages,any problem and they run to their 100 year old handbooks and read what their pet economist has to say.
we live in a changed world where left and right are outdated and pragmatism is the way forward.
incidentally i had a look what all the party leaders(including plaid cymru, snp, ukip and the greens) had to say on the budget and i think if asked. i could have written in advance what they would say.
Guest 698- Registered: 28 May 2010
- Posts: 8,664
Just a little joke Keith.
I'm an optimist. But I'm an optimist who takes my raincoat - Harold Wilson
Guest 688- Registered: 16 Jul 2009
- Posts: 268
Howard,I think the old way of economic thinking,maybe,seen to becoming obsolete in the 'new' world environment.
Guest 688- Registered: 16 Jul 2009
- Posts: 268
And leaves everybody playing catch up
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
What so many of you people ignore are the well documented and highly specific errors made by governments that have created the current problems. There is no real mystery to what has gone wrong. Among these and without being specific to the UK are:
... The Euro which is not only jts dragging down the Eurozone but is a real a present danger to the world economy
... High spending, big government - living on deficits combined with high taxes that suck the life-blood from the wealth creating sector.
... Red tape and idiotic rules that damage the competitive edge of our businesses, raising costs and making it more difficult to compete with the more thrusting economies.
Not all governments behaved this way and those governments are not in the mess we are in.
Canada for instance - it was 1990 when they made massive real cuts to public spending when their economy was heading downhill fast along with significant supply side reforms such as I have been talking about. Their reforms have served them well.
You can also look to many Far Eastern economies as well.
The solution is quite clear.
The private sector needs to be allowed to do its job, taxes need cutting, supply-side reform needs to de-risk and reduce the costs of employing people. Simple, low flat taxes need to be introduced to encourage wealth creators and generate growth. Governments must be shrunk back and need to constrain their spending to half what it is now in the UK at a maximum of 30% of GDP. Welfarism must end, no-one should ever expect to be financially comfortable on state welfare only and need to make their own provision. The State should restrict itself only to providing a safety net for people.
This is the only way to get a more sustainable working economy.
So yes - the economy is not working and the old big government ways are not working and we do need to change. You are certainly right in that.
Guest 716- Registered: 9 Jun 2011
- Posts: 4,010
: George Osborne is still wedded to plan A
The chancellor may generate a few good headlines with his small giveaways,
but this was more of the same
George Osborne seemed to have forgotten that Britain is on the edge of a
triple-dip recession.
George Osborne intends to go down fighting. That was the over-riding impression from a
budget that began with the chancellor dolefully explaining just how dreadful everything
was and ended with him eulogising about how he was doing it for the "aspiration nation".
By the time he claimed he was delivering a package for a Britain that
"wants to be prosperous, solvent and free", the chancellor appeared to have forgotten that
the economy was still 3% smaller than when it went into recession five years ago
and was now teetering on the brink of a triple-dip recession.
It was as if Tigger had replaced Eeyore halfway through the speech.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
wouldn't disagree about supply side reforms in general barry, the n.i. changes today will help small businesses but makin g comparisons with far eastern countries is not on.
back to the party politics that drag us down, germany is the driving force in europe with a right wing government but unions are well represented and ms merkel is not averse to throwing money around when circumstances dictate.
very different to time warp u.k.
Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
The only one thing I know to say for sure, is that running a deficit economy, be it in a local community or at national level, is a failure from the start. It will lead to bankruptcy.
I don't know about Keynes and his handbook, but if any haven't grasped the situation the economy is in of their own accord at least 20 years ago (as I did), then try reading a few articles on the Web about ponzi schemes, debt-based economies and debt-based currencies, and pyramid schemes, and you'll see where it all leads to.
Forget the illuminati, that's all fiction, just think of Chancellor Osborne as an example close to home.
Happy reading
Guest 705- Registered: 23 Sep 2010
- Posts: 661
Just to clarify then Barry- by economic cycle do you mean the basis for a regular boom and bust?
Never give up...
Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
Yes, Richard, that is how I understand it: Barry is talking of regular boom and bust as a normal economic cycle.
In this assured cycle, we get a Labour government followed by a Tory government. This will inevitably be followed by a Labour government, and so on.
It's like the seasons, Spring follows Winter. And one will blame the other.
If we are to believe it, Labour went bust, and now Chancellor Osborne is creating a boom.
So here goes: tick tick tick ... now wait for the boom, Richard, for it will come....
Keith Sansum1- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,942
and on it will go
because other parties are just protest parties
ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Richard - ignore Alexander as he has his rather strange theories.
The economy works in cycles, it always does. It goes through a growth cycle and then it contracts before it moves back into growth. The contraction is a correction because the growth phase always overreaches itself. The growth periods usually last longer than the contractions so we see an overall improvement across cycles. A bit like going forward three steps, realising you have gone too far and taking a step back before taking a few more steps forward and so on.
Boom and bust refers to extreme cycles and often ill-considered government actions can cause the growth phase to overreach itself which then induces a correction, that is where we get a bust, or recession.
The present depth of the recession stems from a number of related factors during the growth phase, some are international while others are domestic.
The Euro straightjacket is certainly a major international factor that is making things worse for all of us. Many governments in the Euro failed to manage their economies in a sensible manner and they spent and borrowed excessively thinking that in some way membership of the Euro would shield them. We can now see the consequences of this. These less competitive countries cannot become more competitive through devaluing so a massive and important weapon in their armoury is missing exacerbating the problems of their fundamentally weak economies.
In the UK we are affected by the malaise in one of our major markets and that makes things more difficult for many of our major businesses and impacts on growth.
But that should not be an excuse. If we had managed our affairs better during the growth phase then we would be in a much stronger position.
Sadly, like many Eurozone countries and some others, the growth part of the cycle was boosted by high levels of debt. The economy was kept afloat by an unsustainable level of borrowing. We went far beyond the 'natural swing' of the cycle so when the contraction came along we crashed into the worse recession for 80 plus years. The reasons for this go directly to government policy during the growth phase and we can pick out all the many and very specific mistakes Brown made that led to this. This long period of growth Brown boasted about was just an illusion built on unsustainable debt, the bubble burst and now we are paying for the consequences.
To sum up - Brown claimed he had 'banned boom and bust', the normal delusion of a boastful politician many thought, the problem was Brown actually believed it and ran the economy that way. The fact that he was not alone and other some other countries did the same is no excuse.
Keith Sansum1- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,942
lets hope osbournes credibility improves
ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS
Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
No Richard, don't ignore it...Chancellor Osborne hasn't got a clue, his plan has failed, we are sitting on a debt boom...
This debt, both public and private, has gone up exponentially since the Coalition got in, and is programmed to go up even more.
It will go up, Richard, with a boom.
Think of your family first, make sure you have prepared for a major financial domino-effect crisis starting in Europe and reaching here.
It's just a matter of time now.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Alexander - you are so behind the curve.
You cannot reduce the debt until you have eliminated the deficit. You cannot eliminate the deficit without massive spending cuts.
I have said all along that the 'cuts' so called are too little and too slow. Welcome to the club.