Thursdays By-Election in Oldham/Saddleworth.
- 10 January 2011 15:5088420The nation will be rivetted to this By-Election on thursday. Ah yes indeed dear old Oldham is a mucho long way away from dear old Dover but nevertheless there is interest in this for all of us as we have our own local elections coming up in May, and this national parliamentary level By-Election will help gauge the mood of the nation.
Is Cameron doing a good job?..are all these swingeing cuts and unholy tax rises really necessary? Some opininon polls feel that Mr Cameron has indeed captured the mood of the nation, indicating that the population realises drastic measures are needed to get the economy back on track. Others feel of course that the tax rises are much too much, crippling as they do poorer familes. The VAT rise for example is seen as a regressive tax.
These variations and ponderables will be answered on Thursday in the only Opinion Poll that counts.
You might remember this By-Election was necessary because the previous MP and indeed Government Minister Phil Woolas was found guilty of dodgy deelings during the previous campaign. He actually won that time for Labour but by the hairs breath margin of just a couple of hundred votes...and was then challenged in the courts by the Libdem he beat by a whisker.
Result of all this...a new election and Phil Woolas is no longer with us.
Although the Libdems nearly grasped victory last time, the feeling us they will fall away this time in a big way. Scuppered as they are by a Leader who failed to deliver almost every promise he made in his own election campaign. So...the Libdems are discredited and on everyones list as the politicians you would most want to kick up the brisket.
The view is that the Labour Party will romp home...thumping their former rivals the Libdems in the process. The Conservatives are non runners in Oldham so are fighting a quieter campaign...not wanting to take votes from the Libdems, otherwise the Libdems would and could vanish off the Lancashire radar, a feat they are in danger of accomplishing almost everywhere else.
A Labour certainty this one.
The candidates below. Am particulary liking the Elvis one. I predict a strong run for Bus Pass Elvis Party!!
Debbie Abrahams (Labour)
Derek Adams (British National Party)
Kashif Ali (Conservative)
Peter Allen (Green Party)
David Bishop (Bus-Pass Elvis Party)
The Flying Brick (Monster Raving Loony Party)
Loz Kaye (Pirate Party of the United Kingdom)
Stephen Morris (English Democrats)
Paul Nuttall MEP (UK Independence Party)
Elwyn Watkins (Liberal Democrats)
It will also be interesting to see the UKIP vote.... it will gauge just how strong or otherwise they are. If ever there was a time for UKIP then this must be it.email: dover7@msn.com - Keith Sansum1
- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,942
10 January 2011 15:5788422paulb
you are probably correct on the outcome.
it will be intreresting to see if this wonderful revival by UKIP surfaces in Oldham
also your right the co olition tories will put up a no hoper and play down there campaign in the hope the lib dems come through, but in the real world people are so peed off with clegg and his cooolition this will be there wake up call and get heavily defeated.
whatever the outcome i'm sure the labour party will take nothing for granted and take on all parties and run a good campaignALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS - 10 January 2011 16:0488425everything points to a red victory here, mr nuttall is quite a big wheel in ukip(already an mep) so they are taking this very seriously.
maybe they will pick up votes from the yellows? - 10 January 2011 16:0688427
Mr Nuttal is a very well know UKIP member and he has had a lot of help with this one and Mr Farage has been or still is up there helping out,going round with leaflets to,he was going to do the same in Dover if it had not been for the bad weather. I think we will do well , even might win it but that is asking alot. - 10 January 2011 16:1088428I dont disagree with Labour being likely to retain this old traditional Labour area.
It is an interesting one for the polling organisations though. See this thread to politicalbetting - lots of question marks thrown up that are not reflected in the headline polling.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/
Beyond the academic interest though, it has no longer term or broader electoral impact, specially given the nature of this seat. - Keith Sansum1
- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,942
10 January 2011 16:1988434barryw
probablyu once the person once idetifying himself asconservative MP was enough for people to tell him where to go.
clear sign people dont want to lisen to conservativesALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS - 10 January 2011 16:3188437Gosh Keefy you might need to clarify that last one.
It might be an idea to read back over the posts to make sure theyre clear...yours truly is not following that one too good...and I aint been in the pub neither.
email: dover7@msn.com - 10 January 2011 16:3588439I think I know what he is trying to say. The problem for him is that polling organisations are not 'Tory' demonstrating the weakness in what keith is trying to say, he used just one source of evidence to make an anti-Tory point, ignoring the rest of the evidence. Typical really!
- Keith Sansum1
- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,942
10 January 2011 16:5588445i think to be fair the conservative MP who couldnt get any indicationor replies is one source.
and like barryw has said in the past when polls go against the tories
he doesn't believe in the polsters being to accurate.
the election as said will be hopefully a wake up cal for the lib dems
ukip probably will take votes from the lib dems and some from the other parties
as will the monster raving loony party(official one) lol
i'm sure labour like al those standing will put together a campaign and be on the streets till thursday.
paulb
don't touch alcohol that often
certainly rarely this time of day
maybe i should lol
ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS - 10 January 2011 17:2288450Glad to hear you havent been hitting the bottle Keef. Not this hour of the day anyway!!lol
But yes Labour have already been throwing the big names into this election in Oldham...they are taking nothing for granted as it was a close call the last time, winning by a whisker only. But since then their nearest rivals for the seat, the Libdems, have committed political hari-kari being the only party in recent times to bring rioters onto the streets of London.
Its interesting to hear from Vic there that Nigel Farage is up there campaigning for UKIP...so as mentioned earlier will watch the UKIP result with baited breath. No chance of them winning but in their case percentage is all. Their percentage will indicate where they stand overall and show if progress is being made. If they are indeed destined to take votes from the Libdems well they've never had a better opportunity.email: dover7@msn.com - Keith Sansum1
- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,942
10 January 2011 17:2688453so paulb
what you are saying is that with all the efforts of ukip
they are only hoping to take a few votes from each party
no real challenge to any party
just a protest party
that label cant remain for ever, at some point they have to decide if they are truely up for winning seatsALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS - Jan Higgins
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 5 Jul 2010
- Posts: 13,895
10 January 2011 17:5688461Wots rong wiv hiting the botle at his time of day. Hic.
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I try to be neutral and polite but it is hard and getting even more difficult at times.
------------------------------------------------------------------- - Keith Sansum1
- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,942
10 January 2011 18:0588462jaN
Theres nowt wrong with it at all
all im saying is i dont(often anyway lol)
might even mke postings more interesting
lolALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS - 10 January 2011 18:3788470keith
as regards to winning seats you are right, that does not detract their success.
ask john trickey?
you may even ask the blues, i think it was roger who said that the blues might have won the county council seat but for victor. - Keith Sansum1
- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,942
10 January 2011 18:4488471howard
we will have to disagree on this one.
the tories(roger)of course are still reeling at losing the seat, and rather than lay blame at there poor showing on the streets, and the unknown candidate(words used on doorstep by consituents)
its easy to say, wasnt our fault, the nasty people left us and protest voted for ukip.
for me i share the virew the lib dems had no intention of fighting the seat(sadly)not only putting forward the wrong candidate, but also one that doesnt reven live in dover, so they made it clear they were making the numbers up and were ready for a hammering at the polls.
vic probaby picked up some of them
as did gordon.
im sure iun this election labour will fight to win the seat giving respect to all the parties standing.ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS - 10 January 2011 19:0488481Personally, I'm not reeling at all, a bit disappointing that our County seat wasn't retained, but that's democracy.
Roger - Jan Higgins
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 5 Jul 2010
- Posts: 13,895
10 January 2011 19:1588484I doubt if the vast majority of the British public know or care, I know I don't. I wonder how many votes the following will get.
Bus-Pass Elvis Party , Monster Raving Loony Party , Pirate Party of the United Kingdom .-----------------------------------------------------------------------
I try to be neutral and polite but it is hard and getting even more difficult at times.
------------------------------------------------------------------- - 10 January 2011 21:0788513Jan, the last three parties, those you mentioned, will probably each get as many votes as you ascribed to them: one each!
All in all, though, a party's success depends mainly on what it has to offer (its programme - be it nationwide or local) and its ability to communicate to the general public, by distributing leaflets and putting up posters, and even more importantly, having public gatherings where candidates can talk to the gathered crowds and convince them of a good cause worthy of voting for.
If the people do not know the candidates and what they have to offer by way of programme and intent, than these candidates might as well not bother standing in the first place. It requires some financial investment either of the individual candidate or of the party, and the will to stand up and face the crowds and make some good, short but effective speeches. Any candidate without this possibility stands no chance whatsoever!Chanters, Drums and Drones Potty Time http://youtu.be/99fMqpjnXYA
Rule Britannia!
Kent First http://youtu.be/04F3mAP3fV4 Keep banging on http://youtu.be/qYCU_SKmkGQ - 10 January 2011 21:4188522i think that paulb was being ever so slightly ironic in his initial post.
i feel sure that the god fearing hard working subjects of oldham and saddleworth will be have to be dragged kicking and screaming to the polling stations.
the analysts like blue barry and keith will study the figures and interpret them in their own way. - 10 January 2011 21:5688523The seat's nickname is about all I find interesting about this by-election....
Old and Sad (Old(ham) and (Sad)dleworth)
We could have a lot of fun with that but I will resist the temptation...
