Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
Labour have held on to their seat in Feltham, west London. But it threw up some interesting voting. This By Election was held following the death of the sitting Labour MP and although previously held by Labour it is considered a marginal seat in that it has been held at regular intervals by either side in the past.
The vote went like this :
Labour - 12,639 (54.42%, +10.79%)
Conservatives - 6,436 (27.71%, -6.32%)
Lib Dems - 1,364 (5.87%, -7.87%)
UKIP - 1,276 (5.49%, +3.45%)
What is most interesting above is not the voting numbers themselves but the percentage swings within the brackets. Labour secured a swing of 10.79% which is quite substantial despite the up/down leadership of Ed Miliband.
The only other gains are UKIP who's vote is up 3.45% but...but...they failed even to beat the Libdems. My feeling is that this will disappoint UKIP greatly. Despite a voting increase in their favour, it was just a slight increase, and they failed to dislodge the hugely unpopular Libdems from 3rd place. UKIP did not expect to win outright but their leadership did expect to beat the Libdems. They wanted 3rd place very badly indeed so that they could claim momentum.
So to sum up...Labour consolidate with an increased majority and UKIP fail to beat the Libdems.
Voting apathy won the day though...turnout was only 28.8%.
Keith Sansum1
- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,942
oh dear poor old UKIP still way behind the lib dems
making no progress
and don't forget the lib dems are the most hated party nearly as hated as our maggie was
ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS
Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
Good to have you back with us Keefy.
Yes the LIbdems popularity is akin to something you bring in under the sole of your shoe, but people are still voting along traditional lines by the looks of it...with just slight movement either way but not breaking the pattern. I would also have thought the current Euro situation would have given the UKIP vote a big surge..people sick of Europe etc etc..but no...not happening. Not even enough momentum to beat the sickly Libdems.
Keith Sansum1- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,942
Nice to be back paul;
on the bye election, i don't think these seats will see the true reflection of how much the lib dems are hated
but you will see it in the soon to be called general election.
cleggy knows he's on borrowed time, thus his latest opinion that he must tickle barry's dave with his remarks on the shambles dave made in europe.
he knows as soon as a general election is called there will a lot of lib dems sitting in marginals that will be wiped off the map.
what i feel sorry for is those lib dems()in this case)who have worked hard to get the seat off the tories(good example is eastbourne)who will probably lose the seat the next time round
but that said theyt chose there bed, now they have to decide what to do next
ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS
Guest 710- Registered: 28 Feb 2011
- Posts: 6,950
Oh so typical of Politics in Britain. All about the Politicians and Partys. The only section of the local electorate to feature are (in this particular instance) the 6,257 more that give the winning candidate their 'majority'.
The total of the votes mentioned in #1 is 21,769. However...
"Although constituencies vary widely in area, the average number of voters in each constituency is approximately 68,175."*
What pitiful Democracy can glibly ignore an average of 46,406 x 650 ? [that is 30,163,900 people across the country]
*
http://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/constituencies/
I wonder what the shortfall in voter registration is for that constituency, what the turnout was, spoiled ballots etc.?
Still...somebody won...something(?!)
Ignorance is bliss, bliss is happiness, I am happy...to draw your attention to the possible connectivity in the foregoing.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Actually Tom there is a massive variation in the size of constituencies. New laws are being passed to correct that alongside a reduction in the number of seats. It should get rid of some of the anomalies clearing out our modern day rotten boroughs.
Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
The turnout was 28.8% Tom see bottom Post 1. Very poor turnout, people clearly not terribly engaged in the process. Maybe having the election before Christmas was not the best timing...but assuming no further extreme variation in extrapulation, then we can only live with the tools we have and hope that it reflects the overall situation accurately.
Guest 710- Registered: 28 Feb 2011
- Posts: 6,950
Actually Barry there is a massive variation in the way you and I view these things.
I quote at #5 what the present parliament puts out. That is the here and now.
[everybody is aware of the current thrust in 'gerrymandering']
Thank you PaulB. The 'less than a third' aspect is plain to see from the figures (I give) and yes...
If my Aunt had a pair she would be my Uncle.
P.S.
We have SNOW!!
Ignorance is bliss, bliss is happiness, I am happy...to draw your attention to the possible connectivity in the foregoing.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
that is roughly the same percentage as when gordon won his county council seat also just before christmas.
the reds will be pleased with that vote with national polls suggesting that the blues have overtaken them.
Guest 710- Registered: 28 Feb 2011
- Posts: 6,950
"Roughly...pleased"? You give too much away Howard.
Ignorance is bliss, bliss is happiness, I am happy...to draw your attention to the possible connectivity in the foregoing.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Gerrymandering - no Tom - correcting an electoral imbalance.
As a result of small 'rotten boroughs' Labour has a massive electoral advantage.
In 2005 Labour won an overall majority of 65 despite having a lower proportion of the votes than the Conservatives gained in 2010. That is all the more underlined in that the Conservatives losing share in 2005 was higher also than Labour's losing share in 2010.
Opposing the changes just means that you are desperate to help Labour keep an unfair advantage.
Guest 710- Registered: 28 Feb 2011
- Posts: 6,950
T'sk, t'sk. Bazza, ol' fruit.
One must be ever-mindful of the inverse relationship between belligerence and confidence.
[This is why small dogs bark all the time and big dogs but seldom.]
I oppose not in the least any genuine drive to fairness, but it ill behoves any Tory to speak in such terms of 'rotten boroughs'.
I do recall it being something of a grand feather in the cap of TB (he who shall not be named) that he and his New-Labour team outplayed the Conservatives in the 'Boundary' game. The Tories being, as ever, engaged in their perennial internecine squabbles.
Alas it does seem that community-cohesion and the oft vaunted connection between MP and constituency shall suffer in the process as outlined.
Anything to help get your Party elected, I suppose, is only human nature. Be it ever so base.
I cannot conceive of a thing more removed from 'proportionality' however. Again Party before people.
What could be more fair than a Parliament who's make-up reflects the public mood?
So...'toys out of the pram' time again?
Ignorance is bliss, bliss is happiness, I am happy...to draw your attention to the possible connectivity in the foregoing.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
You defend the indefensible Tom...
Guest 716- Registered: 9 Jun 2011
- Posts: 4,010
Spot on again Tom.
Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
Here is Ed Miliband speaking live on TV a short while ago..alongside Ken Livingstone and the new MP for Feltham and Heston..Seema Malhotra.
Ed made a rousing speech to camp followers from the pavement...a man of the streets...could this be a Labour revival? He said this was the public speaking out against the governments failed economic policies.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
LOL - did you see Milliminor at PMQ's? what a joke he was. Yet another Labour revival..... well I never.... now what has happened in the polls over the last week? Oh yes, not that it matters, not for a few years yet anyway.... The big question really is will they dump the hapless Millminor before then?
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
the revival will happen fully when they install a new leader.
there is a chap with an unpronounceable name that has been on the box a few times recently that has great charisma and intelligence, they should overlook his lack of experience and ask ed to step down in his favour very soon.
the country is crying out for a strong opposition, governments do not function well without one.
Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
Chukka Umunna.. Howard..lot of charisma. But still very new.
had several stabs at spelling it there...
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
thanks paul, first caught my eye when i read that he had a retinue paid for by the high ups to keep him up with events.
an office three times the size of the other honourable members, they must consider it well worth investing in him.
i believe he is shadow business something or other, a touch of tony blair about him - would come over well in televised debates.
none of the shadow red veterans could challenge flashman at the despatch box so time to blood him, 3 years time he would be p.m.
Keith Sansum1- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,942
howard
firstly we dont have 3 years
this lot is crumbling fast
tom is correct in his posts
and of course the only reason for the boundary changes in reality is to keep the tories in power
its clear as much as i often disagreed on much tony b did, he was a slick operator and out did the tories at every turn boundary changes being one of them.
sadly though if you read t blairs book he was hell bent on getting into number 10
then on staying there
nothing got in the way
on milliband we are seeing him now being a class leader barryw's dave realy does struggle at the despatch box these days
ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS
