Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#1
While I write the the Greek government is expected to pass its austerity measures.
According to The Times over the weekend time and money has already run out. This paper has a paywall but you can sneak a look beyond it via this article in the Speccie.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/business-and-investments/blog/7052178/the-turn-of-the-screw.thtml
Greek hospitals cannot buy supplies of drugs because they have not paid their bills. At least two companies are refusing to sell them more drugs and others may follow. The situation really is that bad.
Do not imagine that the crisis will pass if the Greeks pass the austerity measures. The bail-out is just a sticking plaster and we cannot have confidence that the Greek government will actually deliver on the cuts needed. You need only to listen to the protestors in Athens being interviewed to see how unrealistic they are about their situation. The seem even more deluded than the deficit deniers in this country.
I really do not see a resolution to this crisis without Greece exiting the Eurozone - that have to allow their currency to take some of the strain and get their economy back into some kind of shape.
Think of all those nice cheap holidays there if they do exit.....please let it happen in the summer!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I am off to Greece in September myself for a week so I just have to hope I stay healthy as well!
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#2
they are not being unrealistic barry, they are actually being very realistic.
many people are at their wits end with tax and price rises.
you are right about the austerity measures, they will get through the greek parliament but then the real battle commences.
i predict a return to military rule there.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#3
You may be right about the latter Howard sadly. That would not only result in their exit from the Euro but also their exit from the EU. Given the state they are in an exit from the Euro would, after initial shocks, be positive while a double whammy of getting kicked out of the EU may well increase their problems to total meltdown - remember they are net beneficiaries from the EU unlike us. Greece taken over by the military would be driven down to third world status very quickly.
This is why the Greek government may end up seeing an Euro exit as a matter of self-preservation. They may see it as the only way forward that might stop the generals taking a hand.
Theirs is truly an awful situation to be in.
Those people I heard were refusing to face the facts of a country that is bankrupted, they had no solution and were just objecting to the only option available that will have to be taken Euro exit or not.
Having said what I have said, I do like the Greeks (and their food) but they do need to get 'real'.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#4
i must admit to being a great fan of their food.
the violence seen on our t.v. screens is mainly from anarchists not from the general public, that may change in the future.
the average greek blames their politicians and the international financial community for their problems.
they are right in that the government has been falsifying information given to the i.m.f. and others that has only made matters worse.
Terry Nunn
- Location: London Road, Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 4,321
#5
Cartoon in the paper today:-
Q. What's a Greek urn?
A. Less than he spends!
Terry
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
Ross Miller
- Location: London Road, Dover
- Registered: 17 Sep 2008
- Posts: 3,709
#6
Howard - not sure what reports you have been watching/reading - whilst some of the protesters of a more violent persuasion are fit youngish men (anarchist, off duty coppers, squadies who knows?) many are corpulent middle aged men or older. This is a broad brush protest by many in Greece who see their own brand of privilege being threatened. Too many Greeks want to pay little or no tax but want lots of high quality state/public services, couple that with endemic levels of corruption amongst civil and public servants and you will see why so many ordinary Greeks are on the streets protesting.
Sadly the only solution is for Greece to exit the Euro immediately, frankly if they do not and they (as is likely) do not see through the austerity measures there is every danger the Germans will walk away, as their electorate has had enough of bailing out the Club Med countries, whilst suffering belt tightening at home.
"Dream as if you'll live forever. Live as if you'll die today." - James Dean
"Being deeply loved by someone gives you strength,
While loving someone deeply gives you courage" - Laozi
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#7
ross i referred to the violence not the protests that have come from the general populace in recent times.
the acts we have seen on our t.v. screens over the last few days have come from rent a mob, available in all countries, very little notice required.
Alec Sheldon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 18 Aug 2008
- Posts: 1,037
#8
This is a good article taken from Vanity Fair that I saw on a Corfu forum site. Worth reading if you have the time.
http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2010/10/greeks-bearing-bonds-201010?currentPage=1
You will probably have to copy and paste as I don't know how to do it automatically unless some one can do it for me. Thanks.
Ross Miller- Location: London Road, Dover
- Registered: 17 Sep 2008
- Posts: 3,709
#9
Well Howard you and I clearly have a different perception of who is doing what
"Dream as if you'll live forever. Live as if you'll die today." - James Dean
"Being deeply loved by someone gives you strength,
While loving someone deeply gives you courage" - Laozi
Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
#10
The mire that Greece is in now, is essentially the same as it was in a year ago.
I went to Greece in 2004 (several weeks later Greece won the European Cup). I travelled as far as Thessaloniki, and saw the statues of king Phillip and Alexander the Great, who were kings of Macedonia.
The Greeks will no doubt eventually realise that the EU is no place for Greece to be a part of, and will no doubt reintroduce their dracmae, and maybe will win the World Cup after doing so
Guest 645- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 4,463
#11
Marek
I think therefore I am (not a Tory supporter)
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#12
this fascinating take on the situation is from the independent.
As school children in Athens, every year we practised an alarming custom. At the end of the school year, we gathered our textbooks into a pile and burnt them in an act of rebellion against the rigidity of the educational system. Today, there is a parallel to that self-destructive behaviour in the blame-game unfolding on Constitution Square as Greeks curse their democratically elected politicians for "lulling" them into two decades of easy credit, soft corruption, tax evasion and overspending.
But they selectively ignore that they consented to an unwritten social pact whereby demonstrably corrupt politicians conjured up a higher level of living in return for no questions asked. But if people didn't know that Greece fiddled statistics to get into the European Union, then over-borrowed to fund the exaggerated lifestyles of corrupt politicians, many knew, perhaps onlysubconsciously, that foul play was afoot.
now that the cat's out of the bag, many Greeks have opted for blaming the West for their travails instead of shouldering the blame. Global banks, the International Monetary Fund, Zionism and assorted scarecrows are infinitely preferable targets than facing up to our silent, corroding collusion. To kalo to palikari xerei allo monopati (the smart lad knows a better path) goes the Greek folk saying, and for years we fancied ourselves cutting fine figures as we negotiated our own special path.
But in dealing with Brussels we were falling foul of another saying: Logareiazei xoris ton xenodoho (acting without taking the innkeeper into account). Today, although some blame must be apportioned to international institutions for encouraging Greece's addiction to debt, almost no voices ask why Greeks knowingly lived beyond their means.
This refusal to deal with our past but rush to the soothing shelter of collective amnesia reminded me of the slightly bizarre experience of my Greek childhood. I grew up in Eighties Athens. I took for granted the embedded racism, clientilism and absence of meritocracy.
At sports events, the hooligans setting fires to the stadium, exploding fireworks into basket-ball arenas and pelting players with coins were described with quiet pride and a dash of admiration as "fanatics". Criminals often organised escapes from supposedly high-security jails. Demonstrators rioted in the streets on political anniversaries while the police stood by impassively. Only later did I learn that the authorities viewed the rioting as an important pressure valve on society necessary for manipulating the political agenda.
Then it got even better. Entry into the EU was interpreted as a signal to become "Western", ergo degenerate. Magazines featured scantily clad girls in suggestive poses as swaths of society plunged into a consumerist lifestyle unprecedented in Greek history.
When I moved to a school in London, I thought that all this and more was typical of every Western country and that Greek reality was normality. After all, raising your voice in protest at this paradigm resulted in getting shouted down as a xenerotos (pathetic) or floros (a dweeb). Now I spend some of my time in Kabul. In this failed state, with its massive corruption and a resurgent Taliban, it quite reminds me of home.
Iason Athanasiadis is a writer and photographer based in Istanbul and Kabul
Alec Sheldon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 18 Aug 2008
- Posts: 1,037
#13
Marek, thanks for that #8. I'll learn how to do it for myself one day.
Just heard on a Corfu forum site that VAT is going up massively in Greece in September, just in time for our holiday
. Restaurant meals from 13% to 23% and similar raises on alcohol, tobbaco and fuel. Looks like we will have to take a few more pennies with us or lie low for a few nights.
Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
#14
A year ago I pointed out on the Forum, that the then bailout that was being negotiated for Greece would not solve any financial problems in Greece, and would be followed by another bailout, and another ...
Greece cannot pay back the foreign debits, and let's remember that the country also has internal debits, in a similar way that Britain has a 900 billion pound national debit, although obviously Greece's is not as high as ours. These internal debts, that the \greek state owes its own internal lenders, must also be paid back!
Greece can't even pay back its own internal debit, just as Britain can't. Nor can Germany pay back their massive federal and state debits. In fact, Germany's individual states (Bundeslaender) also German towns/cities also have communal debits, added to their federal debit.
So Germany is in a worse position than we are in this sense, as they have debts at all administrative levels.
No EU member state, including Belgium, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy, can pay back their national debt.
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE!
Unfortuanetly Barry W never gave me credit on these repeated views of mine, for all that I deem him an expert in finances and do not undervalue his opinions on all things financial.
I feel like going back in the history of this Forum and finding my posts from a year ago regards Greece and the bailout of 2010, but then what's the point?
If anyone believes that the EU member states could ever pay back the trillions and trillions of £/euros debt that they collectively owe, be it internal or foreign debt, they are kidding themselves.
Both intuition and plain and simple mathematical calculation can prove this point.
So whatever bailout goes to a failed EU state, it only serves to pay off a small part of already existing debts plus the interest, and must be followed by another bailout, as the bulk of the debts remain, together with the accumulating interest.
And added to that all the new accumulated national debt!
The only way out is to wave good-bye to any money owed by Greece and not give another bailout, and hope that the Greeks leave the EU and fare better.
We will never get our money back from Greece, and I daresay Ireland won't be able to pay Britain back either, but then I wouldn't expect them to, as the Irish would have to undergo mass emmigration and unemployment and tax-increases to pay their loans back to other countries.
It's about time we drew a line and left the EU!
Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
#15
My paragraph about Germany got partially deleted as I did a correction, it was suppose to read, that individual German states have debts (Bundeslaender debt), and also individual towns and cities (communal debt), as well as the German Federal State.
Guest 698- Registered: 28 May 2010
- Posts: 8,664
#16
We should be looking at history. Countries have always got themselves out of unmanageable debts by either devaluing their currency (in the case of foreign debt) or allowing inflation to take hold. Neither of these avenues is open to Greece or any other Euro member. Ergo Greece must go bust sooner or later.
To say otherwise is to deny the laws of gravity.
I'm an optimist. But I'm an optimist who takes my raincoat - Harold Wilson
Guest 645- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 4,463
#17
Peter
You missed out the third option: Go to war
Marek
I think therefore I am (not a Tory supporter)
Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
#18
Well said, Peter!
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#19
Jan Higgins
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 5 Jul 2010
- Posts: 13,931
#20
How can any country improve its problems when it has so many immigrants arriving every week on its shores that it has a struggle to look after.
Luckily the UK does not have the problems that Greece has but look how the influx of EU citizens has affected this country, examples being the extra pressure on the NHS together with housing and also our schools.
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I try to be neutral and polite but it is hard and getting even more difficult at times.
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