howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
greece is once again the centre of attention after bringing out the begging bowl to be filled by other e.u. states.
finance ministers are meeting in luxemburg later to approve a 12 billion euro(10 billion quid) loan to bail them out.
the head of the group of eurozone finance ministers says that this will endanger the economies of at least 5 eurozone member states.
at this stage it looks like we will be handing money over too.
Guest 653- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,540
That's right Howard and there is talk that maybe it would be best for those countries who are in the poop, to leave the Euro and all its constraints and go back to their original currencies.
Roger
Jan Higgins
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 5 Jul 2010
- Posts: 13,888
Being ignorant about these matters what would happen if Greece, or any other country, did not get any more money and it went bankrupt.
With a person or business the banks can grab any assets and sell them off but this is unlikely with any country with financial problems. How would the money men sell the Parthenon or the olive groves.
Seems to me the money is just lost with no benefit to anyone except the country involved.
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I try to be neutral and polite but it is hard and getting even more difficult at times.
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Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
As I undestood it, the 12 billion euro sum is going to be handed over as final part of last year's bailout, but that Greece is after a new bailout: it's this new loan, equivalent to last years, that has caused dust to be kicked up by would-be lender states.
Claude Junkers, Luxemburg's PM, says that to allow Greece to extend dates on repayments would be equivalent to Greece defaulting, which would have terrible effects on the economy of many western EU states, as many that are in a similar condition as Greece would also default.
He also says that to encourage private loans to Greece as part of the bailout is another terrible mistake.
Last year, when Greece got the first bailout, I stated then on the Forum that it will only serve to repay old debts, and that Greece will be asking for a new loan to pay off last year's debts.. and so on...next year... the year after.... the year after that...
We will never see that money again
Neither will other countries, including Germany and France. One of these two, can't remember which, is exposed to Greece for a sum equivalent to 58 billion dollars.
Britain has the equivallent to $14 billion in Greece's melting pot.
(The news is from an American editor, hence the dollars)
Once defaulting starts, then perhaps no bankrupt treasury will bother paying back their oversees debts, so the total sum of money potentially lost to the great lenders of the world - which includes Britain
- could be much greater.
This could possibly mean that British banks will again go bust, and banks in many other countries too, having lent out so much money non-stop to other countries, on a 24/7/366 lending scheme is if they were Father Christmas.
Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
Jan, in reply to your question, if Greece got no more money, they would not repay their debts to oversees lenders, including those mentioned in my above post.
If they get more moeny, it is to pay back older debts, but then they will always ask for a new loan to pay back the previous one.
At some point wi will have to right off the old debts owed to us by Greece, but stop lending out more money. But the whole domino effect will hit other bankrupt western EU states.
If, however, they carry on lending out our money to these bust EU states, we will just be working to pay off other people's debts, until we ourselves, as a Nation, are totally bankrupt.
Guest 645- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 4,463
I was talking to a leading banker over here that said that the Euro was a ''busted flush'' but that Germany and France had so much in the 'pot' that they couldn't pull out. He was forecasting the end of the Euro, the collapse of the Euro zone and the US withdrawing his horns and getting out he stated that the rumours of a NATO withdrawal by the States was only a sign of things to come. He even said it could lead to armed conflict.He was after,over 20 years in the banking industry very despondent.
I must admit that I didn't understand all of what he said..it was far too technical. He started in the banks as a Compliance manager for those of you in the know.I don't think he will be starving in the near future though..judging by his house cars and investments...but we will.
Marek
I think therefore I am (not a Tory supporter)
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
many of us have forecast th end of the euro and the eurozone for some time, i think that germany are being foolish by throwing good money after bad.
the talk of the united states pulling out of nato is more important in my opinion. maybe after the collapse of the warsaw pact it has less relevance?
jan asks what happens when a country becomes skint, the only thing i can think of is that the people would have to move abroad to get work and feed themselves.
Jan Higgins- Location: Dover
- Registered: 5 Jul 2010
- Posts: 13,888
Marek, bankers always have and always will look after themselves first, that is why the only ones that love and respect them are their families and those that benefit from their insider knowledge.
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I try to be neutral and polite but it is hard and getting even more difficult at times.
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Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
A US withdrawl from Nato is probably due to an awareness on the part of the US People that wars and conflicts are less likely to happen if contries go straight, and don't continue to purchase arms as if they were preparing to go to full-scale war.
The US also know that Europe is going bust and is bound to scale down big-time on arms spending, following Britain's example. I believe that President Obama is on the right track if the USA pulls out of Nato.
As for prominent eurocrats in Europe not wanting anyone to pull out of the eurozone, it's because they preached it so much, and introduced it, and it all failed, so they know that they too will lose their post.
All they are defending is their own facade, the great fallimentary monster they built, and their own reputation, by trying to make believe that "the eurozone must not fall or else..."
Or else what? They'll simply lose their job, that's all, their reputation they have already lost.
If the EU (not just the eurozone) does not come to an end now, it will do so in the future, after further prolongued agony.
Then Prosperity can start!
Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
greese is a loose cannon,this dead wood neads cutting out and left to its own devices.
Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
I saw an expert on Sky News, a familiar face from the city often approached at times like this.. but whose name escapes me for the moment, well he was adamant that the Euro would not go down. It would be madness to see this happen...said he. It is now a very major currency on the world stage and just because Greece cant seem to manage, it does not mean the end of the currency.
The problem isnt in giving Greece the extra money but the problem seems to be that the people themselves will not agree to the austerity needed to get themselves out of the mess. The people not being on message bodes ill. If they return to the Drachma their debts will still be there, but as I understand it with huge extra debt placed on top of the levels they already have..as the value of the Drachma would be very low.
However if they did return to the Drachma it would cure the difficulties they are causing the Eurozone at a stroke. However in turn it would be very bad news for Greece as they would be left in a huge mess of debt without the support of anybody.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
It would be best not to bail them out. They need to resolve their own problems and to start by leaving the Euro. If they do that their new drachma will float down in value boosting their economy. Holidays in Greece would be cheap (hopefully including mine in September...) and tourists would flood in. They do, of course, need to chop their public spending and it seems a lot of Greeks are in denial of that need, bail-outs will not enable them to learn the lesson. They could default on their debt of course but I would not get too worried about that.
Phew, we agree! I can't help thinking that part of the problem in recent times is that people are simply unwilling to tighten belts and do without stuff. My view is that stuff is nice, but as long as I have a home and I and my family don't want for the basics, we are well off. It pleases me when we can provide the extras for the children and ourselves, but we can live without them. It feels as if "living within ones means" is an alien concept for some!
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
i do not see the greeks taking their medicine it would mean too many job losses in the public sector.
they have an army of civil servants and there are no jobs going in the private sector.
the greek public by nature do not like being told what to do.
Guest 645- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 4,463
There was a Greek chap on tv news this morning who is still working but hasn't been paid for 8 months. His 2 sons both in their 30's have lost their jobs since the crisis started not sure he even had a belt left to tighten.
Marek
I think therefore I am (not a Tory supporter)
I suppose it was a bit of a sweeping generalisation!! I am just a bit fed up with hearing people bang on about maintaining their lifestyles when there are people without enough to eat or the means to obtain their life saving medication. Genuine hardship wasn't the focus of my irritation!
Guest 698- Registered: 28 May 2010
- Posts: 8,664
The Eurozone is reaping where it sowed. Present stresses are a direct result of admission criteria being fudged to allow weaker economies to join, and failure by the ECB to ensure fiscal and monetary ratios were maintained after joining. If the original criteria had been maintained, there is not a country in Europe that would today qualify to join the euro. Barry and Boris Johnson are right, either jettison Greece or see the whole structure crumble, with Germany most likely being the first major member to jump ship. The German public are rightly peed off with having to bail out country after country and if Germany remains in the euro the political landscape there will change radically.
I'm an optimist. But I'm an optimist who takes my raincoat - Harold Wilson
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#14 Howard - if we don't bail them out they will just have to get on with it and tighten their belts. Even defaulting would not solve their deficit, an overspend is still an overspend.
Worth adding - if they default no-one would lend them the cash to carry on with the deficit spending. They would have to act on it. Exiting the Euro would enable their currency to take some strain and would generate export sales (cheap ouzo, olives and holidays) but they would end up with massive hyper inflation if they just printed cash to bridge the deficit gap. They would be forced to cut spending as they should do.
Guest 698- Registered: 28 May 2010
- Posts: 8,664
One proviso- if they left the euro their euro-denominated debt would have to be re-denominated in New Drachmae otherwise the benefits would be largely lost.
I'm an optimist. But I'm an optimist who takes my raincoat - Harold Wilson
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Spot-on Peter.
I see that there are contingency plans being made for their exit now being reported in the press. No-one really expects the latest fudge to really solve anything.
