John Buckley
- Registered: 6 Oct 2013
- Posts: 615
#1
On a previous thread I made the point and stated that I believed that "the ONLY political party that can guarantee to give you a say on our EU membership by way of a referendum without any "tricks" is UKIP". I still stand by that statement, even though Barry responded by declaring that "Anyone who thinks that UKIP will give us a referendum on Europe is a fantasist. They will not do so simply because they will never have the power to do so".
But this is where I think, in my opinion, that Barry is wrong. Contrary to the future election scenario that Barry may have in his own mind, I believe that UKIP will in fact have the power to determine whether or not we are granted the long awaited referendum that 82% of the British public desire. Obviously, it goes without saying, that UKIP are most unlikely to actually win enough seats on their own to form any sort of majority government. However, I believe that they will win seats next time round and that is where the actual "power" lies. One way or the other and either prior to the election or after it, I believe that it`s not beyond the realms of our imagination to suggest that the conservatives and UKIP do some sort of deal to ensure that the present incumbents of parliament remain there without the constraints of the awful lib-dims. This has been suggested before of course in the media and could possibly work for both parties. UKIP would be a much more natural ally to the conservatives than the lib-dims and UKIP, in turn, would achieve their ultimate aims regarding the EU. Perhaps the lib-dims would join forces with labour, they certainly deserve each other!
I believe that the above outcome could be a strong possibility, even allowing for the fact that Cameron and Farage dislike each other in equal measures. They would somehow have to make it work. Any such deal would be totally dependant of course on a referendum at an early stage, none of this wait until the end of 2017 rubbish and then you might just get one! The trend in the polls indicate that UKIP are likely to be serious contenders at the next election and their overall threat to the conservatives has to be taken seriously by that party. Furthermore, if UKIP achieve their expected success at next years European elections, then that fact alone and the impact of it may well force a change in conservative thinking and strategy for 2015.
Should some sort of "pact" not actually occur, then I have to say that I`m not 100% convinced that the conservatives would deliver on their promise of giving us a referendum on our membership of the EU. I disagree with Barry that "the vast majority of MP`s are eurosceptic now". Certainly and for sure, there are more now than there used to be ( better late than never! ) but I still wonder how many are eurosceptic in name only when it suits them just for political reasons? Furthermore, it`s well known of course that Cameron himself does not want us to leave the european union ( remember his "Don`t keep banging on about Europe" rant? ) and I would guess that the majority of his cabinet ministers are also europhiles. So where does the power lie and the decisions made, at the top of the party or the bottom? Then there is the small question of "trust"! We all remember slippery Dave`s previous "cast iron guarantee" on the Lisbon Treaty and that of course came to nothing!
Are we even being tricked into believing that the conservatives do actually intend to grant us a referendum in 2017 thanks to their new found eurosceptisim? There is no guarantee that James Wharton`s recent private members bill proposing such a thing might even get past the House of Lords and onto the statute book before the next election. Even if it did, but which I think is unlikely, it may not be legally binding for the next government if labour are elected? If the conservatives are now truly eurosceptic then they had the ideal opportunity to show their credentials a few days back when their colleague, Adam Afriyie, introduced an amendment to propose that we had a referendum in 2014 prior to the general election. If nothing else, if his fellow MPs had got behind him and supported him on this they would have at least well and truly nailed their colours to the mast for all to see. But how many supported him..........15!
There will be all the usual reasons and excuses of course as to why he was not supported, but now we are just left with the uncertainty of possibly, at best, being given something on this matter in 2017. Once again, the political class have proved that they are completely out of touch with the wishes of the electorate. There is every chance, in fact a very good one, of this issue now being kicked down the road adinfinitum. If we believe the old saying that a week in politics is a long time, then proposing to hold a referendum in 2017 in political terms is probably equal to a few light years! During that length of time there is too much opportunity for dodgy political manoeuvring and slip sliding to take place unless UKIP are factored into the equation. That is why in order to force this issue home and to obtain an early referendum a vote for UKIP is essential. That is the only way I feel that the conservatives will actually deliver on what at the moment is a token gesture to those that wish to see us gain our independence from the clutches of Brussels. As it stands, how much more damage will be done to our country with at least a further four years or more of dictatorial rule from our masters within the european union?
I should perhaps mention that the above simply reflects my own personal opinion of course and does not necessarily represent the views of the local UKIP branch.
John Buckley- Registered: 6 Oct 2013
- Posts: 615
#2
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#3
have to study that in detail john but must point out initially that ukip would be on very dodgy ground if they done a deal with the blues as most new members and supporters were previously red voters.
John Buckley- Registered: 6 Oct 2013
- Posts: 615
#4
Good point Howard, but it might depend of course just how badly the former labour supporters actually wanted to quit the EU compared with old loyalties? I agree though that there would be an element of risk in any sort of pact agreement with the blues.
Guest 649- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 14,118
#5
Mr Farage as I said to the party some years go might still go blue if they get him a safe seat for the house .
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#6
excellent well written piece john but the problem with all that is there will be no referendum and frankly i don't think one is needed.
the noises coming out of brussels sound ever more desperate and looking around eurosceptic parties are gaining ground all over the member states.
most europhiles admit that the parliament will be hamstrung by the new intake next year effectively neutering the decision making process.
watch for the first country to ditch the currency and the rest will follow slowly but surely.
John Buckley- Registered: 6 Oct 2013
- Posts: 615
#7
I sincerely hope that you`re correct Howard, but those at the top will not let their "dream" disappear without a massive fight of course, as has always been the case. Especially when they have so much of our own money to do battle against us! I guess that the EU will break up at some stage for whatever reason, but if that is going to take much longer then we have to force the issue to extract ourselves before we suffer even more damage.
Guest 745- Registered: 27 Mar 2012
- Posts: 3,370
#8
The conservative parliamentary party support EU membership and expansion
This will only change if the EU attacks the money in the city.
The conservatives are for the rich only,
Good for Country doesn't even enter there thinking ,, the rich get richer under EU membership
The poor get shafted,, Exactly why the old labour left never supported membership
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#9
spot on keith, john has highlighted the problem of the big money being with the pro eu who will enlist top p.r people to put their case as they did last time - another reason why a referendum is not necessarily a good thing.
Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
#10
no,i cant see any party giving us a referendum,not evan ukip.
Keith Sansum1
- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,948
#11
Lets just put the referendum to one side for a moment,
this latest post by john shows just where UKIP are heading
and those that supported UKIP coming from all political/or non political backgrounds would be horrified at these views that UKIP were to have an pact with the nasty party.
This will lose more votes than win them
and the chance of winning a seat that much more remote
ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS
John Buckley- Registered: 6 Oct 2013
- Posts: 615
#12
keith, you state that "those that supported UKIP coming from all political/or non political backgrounds would be horrified at these views". I disagree totally. For a start, ex conservative members would not be "horrified" I`m sure. Also people from a "non-political backgound" would not be too bothered one way or the other as long as UKIP managed to have some influence in future government policy. That leaves ex labour and a few lib-dim supporters. Well, let me ask you this, why do you think for example that somebody that has always previously been a staunch labour supporter now want to vote UKIP? You may well struggle with the answer so I`ll tell you! They now support UKIP because your party has completely and utterly failed to stand up for the working class of this country by previously complying with every single dicktat thrown at us from Brussels, whether or not it was to the detriment of our own people. If elected in 2015 you would no doubt continue to do the same.
Remember the classic Brown buzz line "British jobs for British workers". Well, whatever else I think of that particular incompetent I must admit that he had a wicked sense of humour! Unlike you Keith, many of our new supporters now actually recognise the fact that, like it or not, most of our problems stem from our membership of the EU as well as the inability to control our own borders. Until this problem is addressed little will change, apart from things getting worse on the jobs front, especially for our own "unskilled" workforce. For the future good of our own people and country sometimes slightly unpalatable things have to be done. It is called "compromise".
Nobody in UKIP actually WANTS to join forces with the conservatives, but if that`s what it takes to reclaim our country, the one that your lot were happy to give away incidentally, then perhaps that`s not such a bad price to pay.
But you will note that I also stated that this is simply just a personal opinion. I do not speak for UKIP in any official capacity whatsoever, in fact I`m not even a committee member of the local party, just a bog standard member.
Guest 745- Registered: 27 Mar 2012
- Posts: 3,370
#13
Keith s.. your friend bob the crow and Mr. Ben think ukip to be correct on withdrawal
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
#14
Guest 698- Registered: 28 May 2010
- Posts: 8,664
#15
Yes quite. If Cameron doesn't give us a referendum before the election he will be out on his arse.
I'm an optimist. But I'm an optimist who takes my raincoat - Harold Wilson
Guest 649- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 14,118
#16
If he was going to do it ,it would be done by now,he will hold it back to after the election again hoping more support from the public to stay in,but again he is wrong and wait and see more U-turns going round from him,he is a very week leader and he must go anyway,
