The post you are reporting:
On a previous thread I made the point and stated that I believed that "the ONLY political party that can guarantee to give you a say on our EU membership by way of a referendum without any "tricks" is UKIP". I still stand by that statement, even though Barry responded by declaring that "Anyone who thinks that UKIP will give us a referendum on Europe is a fantasist. They will not do so simply because they will never have the power to do so".
But this is where I think, in my opinion, that Barry is wrong. Contrary to the future election scenario that Barry may have in his own mind, I believe that UKIP will in fact have the power to determine whether or not we are granted the long awaited referendum that 82% of the British public desire. Obviously, it goes without saying, that UKIP are most unlikely to actually win enough seats on their own to form any sort of majority government. However, I believe that they will win seats next time round and that is where the actual "power" lies. One way or the other and either prior to the election or after it, I believe that it`s not beyond the realms of our imagination to suggest that the conservatives and UKIP do some sort of deal to ensure that the present incumbents of parliament remain there without the constraints of the awful lib-dims. This has been suggested before of course in the media and could possibly work for both parties. UKIP would be a much more natural ally to the conservatives than the lib-dims and UKIP, in turn, would achieve their ultimate aims regarding the EU. Perhaps the lib-dims would join forces with labour, they certainly deserve each other!
I believe that the above outcome could be a strong possibility, even allowing for the fact that Cameron and Farage dislike each other in equal measures. They would somehow have to make it work. Any such deal would be totally dependant of course on a referendum at an early stage, none of this wait until the end of 2017 rubbish and then you might just get one! The trend in the polls indicate that UKIP are likely to be serious contenders at the next election and their overall threat to the conservatives has to be taken seriously by that party. Furthermore, if UKIP achieve their expected success at next years European elections, then that fact alone and the impact of it may well force a change in conservative thinking and strategy for 2015.
Should some sort of "pact" not actually occur, then I have to say that I`m not 100% convinced that the conservatives would deliver on their promise of giving us a referendum on our membership of the EU. I disagree with Barry that "the vast majority of MP`s are eurosceptic now". Certainly and for sure, there are more now than there used to be ( better late than never! ) but I still wonder how many are eurosceptic in name only when it suits them just for political reasons? Furthermore, it`s well known of course that Cameron himself does not want us to leave the european union ( remember his "Don`t keep banging on about Europe" rant? ) and I would guess that the majority of his cabinet ministers are also europhiles. So where does the power lie and the decisions made, at the top of the party or the bottom? Then there is the small question of "trust"! We all remember slippery Dave`s previous "cast iron guarantee" on the Lisbon Treaty and that of course came to nothing!
Are we even being tricked into believing that the conservatives do actually intend to grant us a referendum in 2017 thanks to their new found eurosceptisim? There is no guarantee that James Wharton`s recent private members bill proposing such a thing might even get past the House of Lords and onto the statute book before the next election. Even if it did, but which I think is unlikely, it may not be legally binding for the next government if labour are elected? If the conservatives are now truly eurosceptic then they had the ideal opportunity to show their credentials a few days back when their colleague, Adam Afriyie, introduced an amendment to propose that we had a referendum in 2014 prior to the general election. If nothing else, if his fellow MPs had got behind him and supported him on this they would have at least well and truly nailed their colours to the mast for all to see. But how many supported him..........15!
There will be all the usual reasons and excuses of course as to why he was not supported, but now we are just left with the uncertainty of possibly, at best, being given something on this matter in 2017. Once again, the political class have proved that they are completely out of touch with the wishes of the electorate. There is every chance, in fact a very good one, of this issue now being kicked down the road adinfinitum. If we believe the old saying that a week in politics is a long time, then proposing to hold a referendum in 2017 in political terms is probably equal to a few light years! During that length of time there is too much opportunity for dodgy political manoeuvring and slip sliding to take place unless UKIP are factored into the equation. That is why in order to force this issue home and to obtain an early referendum a vote for UKIP is essential. That is the only way I feel that the conservatives will actually deliver on what at the moment is a token gesture to those that wish to see us gain our independence from the clutches of Brussels. As it stands, how much more damage will be done to our country with at least a further four years or more of dictatorial rule from our masters within the european union?
I should perhaps mention that the above simply reflects my own personal opinion of course and does not necessarily represent the views of the local UKIP branch.