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  This morning I spoke to John Baron who is an ERG member, and with Stephen Hammond who is one of those unfrocked by Boris after the vote a while ago. Both told me that they would vote for the deal with some reluctance (for different reasons). I also spoke to Jim Fitzpatrick who is a Labour MP and he told me that he will also vote for it. They all said that most, if not all, of their respective factions within their parties would also vote for it. Reading between the lines I got the impression that there will be more Labour rebels. Jim said that, like him, many of his colleagues in the PLP are uncomfortable with a leadership who will not get off the fence and with a Politburo who are on the hunt for any MPs who are not ‘on message’ with the new Labour reality. They know who they are so they have nothing to lose by voting with their conscience and defying the whip.
  So my prediction is that the deal will narrowly pass, avoiding the mess of a no-deal Brexit.

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