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  Allow me to provide a reality check for you. I take no pleasure in this and I can understand the desire to talk up events but over optimism can be as dangerous as excessive pessimism.
  
  Sorry to say that the best case scenario is that we are behind France and Germany. In the equivilent quarter where France and Germany were first showing growth we were still in recession according to official figures. You need to be comparing like for like quarters Mark and Paul.
  
  Only during the past week estimates for the contraction of the UK economy during the present year were increased (they were already worse than Darling's over optimistic figures). They also showed that the UK will recover from the recession last among the major industrial nations.
  
  We are still bumping along and certainly there are some good indicators, but we remain far from out of the woods. Mixed messages will continue for a while yet and that is natural.
  
  There is also increased speculation of something I warned about nearly a year ago, a double dip recession (or the W shape as some call it).
  
  Brown's economic mismanagment made this recession far worse than it should have been while the consequences of the quantitive easing and massive Government borrowing are yet to be felt. Higher interest rates, massive public spending cuts, increased taxation and high inflation will be the result. Unemployment will not peak for a long while yet at over 3million.
  
  There is no room for any kind of joy just yet, sadly. There will be a lot of pain to come.

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