Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
2 December 2008
09:3710093#1
"The UK is closer to joining the Euro than ever before" says Mr Barroso the EU President. He said he has had secret meetings with a number of leading politicians here in the UK who are talking positively about joining. This could well be true, although Downing St are denying it.
A few years back we had a powerful momentum going re joining the Euro. Tony Blair was on the crest of a wave, winning election after election, and he seemed unstoppable and this idea of joining the single european currency seemed equally unstoppable. Blair was keen. Labour was keen. The Libdems were keen. The Euro was on the cards for real. Then the Iraq War happened, and our focus and thoughts went elsewhere. The aftermath of the War went badly and Tony Blairs's popularity fell off a cliff. The idea was shelved.
But now with the pound dangling on the edge of the same cliff Tony Blair went over, the Euro is back on the cards. The European currency is strong and stable and the view is that we would have weathered the recession much better if we had the Euro as our currency. Sterling has not been helped by politicians talking it down and now it is so weak that it is affecting our economy in a hugely negative way.
The time will come, surely before too long now, when the world will be reshaped into great blocks of financial power. India, China, the USA, and of course Europe. There will be no room for weak little currencies in offshore isles dangling on that ever precipice of a daily uncertain hell, users weak and vulnerable in the too and fro of global trends. We need stability and strength. Might is always right.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
2 December 2008
09:5110095#2
The pound has its problems only as a direct result of Brown's binge. It is the clearest expression of a total lack of confidence in the Government's economic policy. It is what George Osborne warned against not so very long ago. It is utterly absurd to try to blame politicians for talking it down. What has happened is a matter of hard economics not loose talk.
To join the Euro would compound disaster. Currencies work in tandem with overall economic policy and you cannot disguise economic weakness by hiding behind a different currency. Make no mistake there are incredable pressures threatening to tear the Euro apart right now and we are much better off out of it.
What is needed is a credable economic policy based around sound money, real and substantial cuts to public expenditure must lead the way. We are much weaker than other economies and by far the worse placed to deal with the recession all due to Brown's age of irresponsibility.
Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
2 December 2008
09:5410096#3
i have been saying for a couple of years now paul,but there seems a lot of opasiton against it.but if this chap is right who knows we might have the euro this time nexy year.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
2 December 2008
10:0210098#4
Brian, there is no chance at all of that, mark my words.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
2 December 2008
10:0510099#5
barry if you read my post properly you would have seen MIGHT HAVE in my wording,
Guest 645- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 4,463
2 December 2008
10:0610100#6
Although Brown has been in serious trouble, and many things have gone wrong, he has proven in my opinion to be a decisive and effective PM.
David Cameron has noticed the slide of his party in the polls and has decided to do an economic policy U-Turn and advocate cuts in Tax,Health,Education and Policing.He represents something of a "Weathervane" - all he does is blows with the wind said one commentator adding " He is an indecisive electoral opportunist".
Now the Tories have abandoned their commitment to stick to Labours spending plans if - and a BIG if - they win the next General election we know what is coming:
Spending cuts. Backed into a corner the Tories have reverted to their true Thatcherite instincts:
Starve Public Services of much needed money. Anyone remember crumbling schools, huge NHS waiting lists,high unemployment and the sale of the utilities companies.
Marek
I think therefore I am (not a Tory supporter)
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
2 December 2008
12:4310102#7
Marek. The Osborne promise was made in very different circumstances and the changed economic climate made spending cuts essential. There would be a much greater cause to critisise if Osborne stuck to that pledge.
You cannot get away from the core economic facts. The Government has been overspending for years, a crazy debt fueled spree that we are all going to pay for. Just like any sensible familiy the Government should look at its expenditure and make cuts. Its not rocket science to understand.
As for Gordo - he has had his day and has been found wanting. He has failed the test of addressing the economic problems and even his Chancellor has said the medicine is not/will not work.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
2 December 2008
21:4310152#8
barrosso was speaking out of turn, a typical arrogant eurocrat.
the pm said years ago when he was chancellor that 5 criteria had to be met before he would RECOMMEND joining the euro.
that is light years away and then a referendum will have to be held.
paul
with regard to the current exchange rate, this is only a temporary thing, 2 years ago the euro looked sickly against sterling.
let us not forget that uk exporters have a great opportunity at the moment to do good business with euroland.
as an aside, it helps to stop us crossing the channnel to spend our dosh, and encourages our friends from across the channel to come here and spend some of those euros.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
2 December 2008
22:2010158#9
Yes, howard, we can be agreed totally on this.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
2 December 2008
22:4710162#10
leval playing field for every one,you me the factoroys etc.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
2 December 2008
22:5810164#11
not sure what you mean by that brian, there can never be a level playing field in business and resultant jobs.
i liked it when the pound was strong against the euro, it meant a few more cognacs in calais bars, cheap cigarettes and wine to bring back.
however it is more important to us as a country to have a weak pound at this time, our hard pressed factories have an opportunity to wipe the floor with our european competitors.
let us not forget that the emerging economies like china and india that slaughter us with their cheap goods, have created a society of an emerging middle class that now crave luxury goods, not available at home.
they will look to europe and america for those things.
hope i have made my point clear.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
2 December 2008
23:0310167#12
i see your point howard but we still get screwed on the exchage rate every time you chage it,same goes for buissneses etc.
Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
3 December 2008
09:4610186#13
Lord Mandelson said on the Radio4 just a few short minutes ago
that he himself hasnt spoken to Mr Barroso on this in recent times ..but that it remains
"the longterm aim of the government to join the european single currency...but it is not something for the shorterm"
So there you have it. One day the coinage in your pocket will be the Euro and it will be the sensible path for all of us. No more currency fluctuations between the Pound and the Euro harming business, no more exchange rate cobblers every time you travel, the strength of the mass euromarket behind the currency in relation to other global currencies...etc etc
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
3 December 2008
10:1110187#14
This Government does not have a 'longerterm'. They will be out in 18 months, latest. There is no way under any circumstances that a Conservative Government will advocate joining the Euro which is a political and not an economic project.
The Euro itself may well be doomed in the longer term.
Guest 645- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 4,463
3 December 2008
11:1610192#15
A few good economic reasons for joining the Euro and ditching the pound
1. A BETTER DEAL FOR CONSUMERS
The euro is finally completing a US-size single market in Europe, and ending companies ability to charge the highest price each national market will bear.
US-style competition in one big market will end rip off Britain and give consumers year-round bargain basement prices. Already, big companies like Unilever are aligning their prices for goods like ice cream and soap powder, which can vary by as much as 30 per cent from one euro-zone country to another. Outside the euro-zone, Britain will continue to lose out.
2. REAL SOVEREIGNTY OVER OUR MONETARY AFFAIRS
If we get rid of sterling and adopt the euro, we will also get rid of sterling crises and sterling overvaluations. This will give us a real control over our economic environment.
Our manufacturers, farmers and other trading businesses would be able to rely on the exchange rate against our main continental trading partners staying unchanged forever. That would in turn mean that interest rates would not have to be raised sky-high to protect a plummeting pound, which is what has usually happened after periods when the pound is over-valued as at present. Remember that in 1986 Nigel Lawson had to hike interest rates not because of domestic economic conditions but because the pound threatened to fall to one-to-one against the dollar.
3. INVESTMENT & JOBS WILL GROW WITH EURO MEMBERSHIP
Businesses will invest more because they will face fewer risks from volatile exchange rates. At present, foreign direct investment is staying high because companies believe that Britain will join the euro. But if we fail to do so, investment could plummet. Japanese businessmen are now increasingly blunt about the need for Britain to join. As Mr Hiroshi Nemichi, chairman of Mitsubishi Corporation (UK) plc says: ÎIf Britain were to rule out membership of the single currency, as the anti-Europeans seem to want, Britain would be less attractive to inward investors.
4. BRITISH BUSINESSES RISK BEING SIDELINED OUTSIDE THE EURO
The biggest British businesses like Unilever, Shell, BP Amoco, Vodafone Mannesman will effectively become eurozone companies, doing most of their accounts in euro anyway. The eurozone market is a bigger slice of their turnover than the UK. There is now a merger wave going on in Europe as businesses try to operate on a continental scale: last year, the total value of mergers was more than 1 trillion euros, six times the level of the last peak.
But medium sized UK companies cannot take advantage of these trends. Their costs continue to be in sterling, even though they are increasingly forced to invoice in euros. Yet they cannot merge to get bigger economies of scale in the same way as their continental rivals because they would still be exposed to the ups and downs of the exchange rate in their main market. They therefore face the disadvantages of an independent currency without the advantages.
5. SAVINGS ON CURRENCY CONVERSION
Every tourist knows how their money dwindles in value when they convert into foreign cash for a holiday, but the same problem hits businesses every day of the week.
And transactions costs even for the biggest clients and both Mars and Tate and Lyle have complained - have become sharply higher since the euro was introduced as there is less competition in the UK-euro market. These savings alone will be worth about half a pence in every pound produced in the UK.
6. MORE PROSPERITY FOR THE CITY
The City would have the potential to become Europes financial centre, not just a big offshore centre. Although the City is doing well from the growth of the eurobond market, and from the mergers boom as europes businesses consolidate, the real prize will be a single market in financial services. This will allow British-based financial institutions to provide financial services all the way across the continent, effectively turning London into the New York of Europe. Yet that prospect which needs agreement on EU legislation - is much less likely if we fail to participate in the euro.
7. BETTER PENSIONS
Although old people often worry that the euros lower interest rates will hit their income, in fact pensioners would benefit. First, the value of their shareholdings in pension funds will tend to rise as interest rates fall. Secondly, pension funds will be able to spread their risks around the wider euro-zone, creating larger portfolios than ever before. This will reduce their risks and increase their returns and hence their pensions.
8. THE EURO IS A WORLD CURRENCY
The US Treasury saves more than $10 bln a year because foreigners hold dollar bills effectively a free loan. As the euro becomes established, foreigners will also hold euros, making european governments a free loan. The euro has already become a major currency in which to borrow money: issues of international bonds denominated in euro rivalled dollar issues last year.
9. N0 EUROPEAN SUPERSTATE
The euro does not imply a european superstate. Ireland and Britain were in monetary union from 1921 to 1979, a period which encompassed such independent exercise of Irish political sovereignty as the end of Dominion status and neutrality in a war in which Britain was fighting for its life. Belgium and Luxembourg have been in monetary union since the twenties, but have entirely independent political systems. And between 1880 and 1914, the gold standard was effectively a world monetary union without any world government at all. Money is a convenience to make us richer, not a piece of national bunting to be waved. The Euro is just another word for cash.
10. ONE INTEREST RATE FOR A WIDE AREA WORKS
Setting one interest rate and one exchange rate for a wide area like the Eurozone the so-called one size fits all already works in an area just as big, the United States. There are plenty of ways economies adjust without needing separate interest rates and exchange rates.
11. FINALLY
Furthermore, the euro has now become the international currency of choice as the dollar slides.
Of course, this could change, but in the euro, 90 per cent of our economic activity would be carried out in one currency, and crises such as that involving Northern Rock could be more effectively managed as part of a larger currency area, in the same way that the bigger the ship, the less choppy the sea seems.
The pound has lost about six per cent of its value against the euro this past couple of months - a potentially catastrophic change for businesses working on narrow margins.
Its time to ditch the loyalty to the pound and plan now to join.
Marek
I think therefore I am (not a Tory supporter)
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
3 December 2008
13:3210200#16
marek thats a big
to that post.couldent put it better myself.
Guest 675- Registered: 30 Jun 2008
- Posts: 1,610
3 December 2008
15:0510205#17
The last time I was in Holland the shopkeepers were happy to take whatever currancy you had in your pocket. Here in Dover, the closest point to continental Europe, how many struggling businesses are cutting their own throats by refusing to take anything but sterling?
Politics, it seems to me, for years, or all too long, has been concerned with right or left instead of right or wrong.
Richard Armour
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
3 December 2008
17:4110216#18
So Marek - when I make posts of that kind I quote the source(s). What was your source? The EU no doubt or some EU federalist organisation.
We have been lied to time and time again on this issue, the whole EU project has depended on lies and deciet to progress.
Anyway that amounts to a very weak case for giving up our economic and political freedoms and handing over the control of our economy to Frankfurt.
We all know what happened when we joined EMU and all you would be doing is creating a much bigger economic problem. There are severe economic tensions now threatening to pull the Euro apart and only the fact that the Federalists see this as a political and not economic one is keeping it together.
To suggest it would not lead to a Federal EU is to throw the facts on their head. This would, alongside the Constitution (so called Treaty), put the final nail in the coffin of the UK as an independent nation.
Guest 645- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 4,463
3 December 2008
17:5910217#19
BarryW
It was a collection of comments,thoughts and ideas from a number of political sites,newspapers and blogsites.I think one of them was a Lib/Dem MP but there were no European Federalists involved.
Surely you are not advocating that all of the points raised in my posting are without merit?.
Marek
I think therefore I am (not a Tory supporter)
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
3 December 2008
18:3110224#20
The LibDems are Euro federalists and the most pro-EU UK political party.
I am yes saying that these comments are without merit. Mostly wishful thinking through a set of rose coloured specs and complete misrepresentation to the point of absurdity. (those mixed mets again!!!)
One example is the ridiculous claim of sovereignity over our currency. Simply a warped interpretation of sovereignity. So what if 'sterling crisis' are replaced with 'Euro crisis'. If we run our economy responsibly we will not have sterling crisis. The current problem is one of economic incompetence by the present Government. The very fact that sterling has devalued as it has demonstrates how weak this Government has made our economy compared to other major nations.
The matter of overseas investment is also a total misrepresentation of the facts. What businesses need in the UK to invest here are the competitive advantages of low levels of red tape combined with a flexible labour market and low taxation, when compared to other EU countries. These advantages are being thrown away by the present Government and the EU love that!!
I could go on but must prepare for a Governors meeting! There really is little substance in all this.