Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
There was quite staggering news from France and Germany today on economic growth figures. It makes you think and ponder. Both countries are of course the power backbone of the Eurozone, those countries that have the euro as their currency, and according to the BBC's Radio 4 Today programme this morning, both nations have surprised all with "rapid growth" figures in the first quarter of 2011. This is very good news for them indeed.
We often hear the Eurozone derided as hopeless, with soothsayers prophesying the demise of the Euro, but on the contrary we get growth like this. France has a full 1% growth figure against its name for this quarter and the population are spending their way out of recession because there is more money sloshing around their economy. Yes people are spending. People have money to spend. Germany's growth was even higher tipping the scale at 1.5%. These are excellent figures.
Even some of the lower nations in the Eurozone are moving forward and seeing growth.
This country on the other hand... is going through the harshest of times and experiencing the harshest of measures, and with no money sloshing about in the economy is bumbling along the bottom of the graph, only minimally missing the tag of double dip. Could this be because we are outside the Euro? We have to ask. We had a deeper recession than any comparable economy too...could this be because we are outside the Euro?? Better to be inside the block than not!?
Germany is the engine room of course and they appear to be booming with a 5% larger economy since this time last year. How do they do it...while we languish at the bottom.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
paul
the two nations(sorry regions) you mentioned have always had strong economies well before the eurozone came into being.
the citizens of these two countries begrudge bailing out the smaller members, in fact a poll published in germany recently showed it was 50/50 whether to stay in or leave the eurozone.
the new poorer members are raking in dosh from others to keep their economies afloat, when all that changes and they are asked to be nett contributors they will be moaning about the euro.
Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
Paul, well Howard actually said it, but before reading his comment, I was about to point out the riots in Greece, where a new bail out is on the agenda, the previous one not having worked (enough?).
This of-course means even more tax-increases and austerity in Greece, which is a Eurozone member. The Greeks don't seem at all happy about it.
Ireland is not usually mentioned on the news, but it does seem that the economy does not look as bright there as, say, in Germany or France.
Now let's add Portugal to the equation, and not even look at Spain and Italy's looming debt explosion, and ask ourselves if, by joining the Euro, we'd not be binding ourselves to masive participation "a la Germany et France" in future Eurozone bailouts.
Just think, Britain joined the Europ, and the next day Spain and Italy appeared grinning with a bailout demand. Now let's forget Portugal and Belgium, which by comparison have peanuts bail outs.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
PaulB.
You need to look below the surface to see the real story and it is not so rosy. Germany and France have very low domestic demand that bodes ill. Germany's figures this year also reflect a 100% write down allowance for firms which is a one year deal so a lot of that growth will dissapate next year. France (and Germany) has also been re-stocking after the recession and that is distorting figures.
This is also going to increase problems in the Eurozone. The level of divergence is increasing with interest rates reflecting the two largest zone economies, Germany and France. This will make things even more difficult for the PIGS and the 'zone' is speeding up towards a car crash. It is difficult to see how the Euro can survive.
Now for the UK. We, of course, suffered the deepest and longest recession of all G20 countries and they include Germany and France. It is therefore logical that our climb back is going to be all the more difficult given the appalling fiscal position our economy is in thanks to Brown. On the positive side, unlike the PIGS, we are not being held back by the Euro and can benefit with a floating currency taking some of the strain, a luzury denied the PIGS.
Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
howard,you were right the first time,they are nations not regions.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
you know me comrade brian i like to keep everybody happy, now that we are part of the nord pas de calais i like to take a modern outlook.
Guest 645- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 4,463
PaulB
I have looked below the surface as Barry recommended to you and from what I read and deduce,with my very limited left wing sighted foolish and envious position,(as no doubt Barry will remind everyone) is that Osborne is the laughing stock of Europe his bloody rushed through spending cuts have left Britain idling behind our European rivals.
For example,as you correctly quoted, growth in Germany is triple that of the UK and France's double.Even the gormless Greeks managed to do better than our dawdling 0.5% performance in the first three months of this year.We have even been overtaken by the Dutch and wait for it...the cheap fag floggers of Europe ...the BELGIANS
Germany's GDP - soared by 1.5% and France's by 1% in the first three months of this year. The Netherlands grew 0.9%, Belgium by 1% while troubled Greece jumped 0.8% - the average across the EU. Britain's 0.5% in the same quarter followed a shock 0.5% fall in the previous three months.
So looking at growth over the past six months, the UK came 20th out of 22 countries there is no argument that Osborne has made a political decision to cut further and faster than any other leading economy.
But that is not just a loony lefties ,like me, view even the Tories ex adviser Geoff Dicks critised Osborne stating he will miss his targets...targets a blight in the British language.
Marek
I think therefore I am (not a Tory supporter)
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
marek,your lefty point is well made,and futher more i tend to agree with it.
so belguim with no goverment [acording to barryw] has done better than one with a goverment.osboure and this cobbled together goverment has a lot to answer to.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Mark my words, Marek - there is a lot of trouble to come in Europe.
If we went your way (or Labour's) then we would have a massive bond crisis, we would already be paying higher interest on mortgages and loans and that would itself be damaging businesses and clamping down on growth. The difference is that there would have to be even bigger and deeper cuts as a result of higher government dept levels and even higher levels of interest being paid.
Like I said, there is no such thing as a free lunch.
When looking 'below the surface' you actually have to know what you are looking at and consider the whole picture. Look yourself at how bond prices have moved over the last 12 months other signs can be gleamed from the repo market as well and the currency spot markets. They all tell a picture about the economy.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
so wot we want is is a double dip ression just to every body right.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
Brian - I am the one warning of the possibility of a double dip back in November 2009 as a result of Brown's pre-budget report.
The real problem we have is the debt and continuing deficit. They cannot be ignored and must be dealt with. We have to pay for it one way or another, there is no easy solution. The longer the deficit is not dealt with then the bigger the eventual cuts will have to be.
This country lived for far too long on the back of excessive debt and now its payback. You cannot buck the facts of life.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
barryw,just a couple of points,low gdp for one,a weak pound for two.and an under performing goverment who have got more u-turns in its first year of goverment than labour ever did in its 3 terms of office.so working on that the double dir could have a devastating effect on this country by making it banckrupt with no way out apart from a very large hand out from the eu.
Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
Brian, Britain has a super-valuated pound, which accounts for lost export opportunities with countries outside both the EU (fictional Europe), and Europe proper (from Calais to the Urals).
Trade with other countries, Canada, the USA, Australia, New Zealand and Japan is also easy-going, as these countries have an average wage almost identicle to Britain and Europe (EU and non).
Eastern Europe, though, including Russia, has a lower national average salary, which makes trade unfair.
But all the continents beyond Europe (Africa, Asia and South Amaerica), have complete different national average salaries, anywhere from a fifth to a twentieth of that in Britain.
The super-valuated pound is an obstacle to fair trade with these continents, as the super pound it accounts for the difference in national average salary.
I know that no-one ever dwelves on this subject, either in Parliament or in the news-papers and peer-revised journals, but that's too bad.
However, the trading partners of Britain in Europe who trade on equal terms with us are those with an equal national average salary, and these are the western European economies. Only, they produce the same as we do, meaning that a large proportion of trade with them is artificial, enforced, unnecessary, and only adds to the carbon foot print.
What I described here comes under economic principles, and one day these principles will be addressed, whenever.
As for Britain receiving a very large handout from the EU, dream on!
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
actually alex i thought the pound was very weak against the euro, thus helping our exports.
on the wider issue of growth, our politics is dominated by dogma much more than other countries, which is a major drawback.
our major parties are mainly obsessed with economists so they go with their ideals irrespective of the situation they find themselves in.
without wanting to sound too cynical i have no confidence in the words of blue barry when he says that the cuts should be deeper than they presently are.
Guest 698- Registered: 28 May 2010
- Posts: 8,664
It's the cost of employing people in the UK which makes us uncompetitive. This is due in turn to high expectations as to standards of living. And the productive private sector is trying vainly to compete with the bloated public sector where pay and conditions are better. Better for British companies to set up factories abroad where labour is cheaper. Otherwise we can't compete with China or India. You may be surprised to know that there is a Dover-based manufacturing company with a factory in Thailand.
I'm an optimist. But I'm an optimist who takes my raincoat - Harold Wilson
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
howard,yes you are correct,the pound is weak and getting weaker,while other currencies are getting stronger which makes our inports dearer.as for blue barry you are allso right,so short sighted its criminal [should go to specsavers] to help see things clearer.
peter,would you care to name the dover based companywith a factory in thailand.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
i suppose to be competitive we should abolish the minimum wage, force workers to tug their collective forelocks and be grateful for a bowl of rice a day.
takes me back to the dark days of thatcher when she told us all that we were earning too much.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
howard,apparently we are not the only country with a minimum wage 15 countrys across europe have it as well.france,germany,holland and the benilux countrys to.the belguims minimum wage is 1300 euros a month in 2009.the average in others is between 1500 to 2600 euros a month.so in retrospect they are roughly the same amount of dosh as we are.
If we are talking about "fair", the discrepancies between not only salaries but skills between public and private sector is a good place to start. No-one ion their right (I use the term loosely) mind would want to see a reduction in the standard of living. But I do want to se parity and equality of opportunity, which will never happen while there is such a divide between the expectations and realities of the public and other sectors. And that is glaringly obviously down to the inefficiency, ingrained ineptitude and greed of areas of the public sector!!!!!!
Guest 698- Registered: 28 May 2010
- Posts: 8,664
The same company also has two manufacturing facilities in the Dover area and another near Durham.
I'm an optimist. But I'm an optimist who takes my raincoat - Harold Wilson