Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
#1
As mentioned elsewhere we were away in France for the past few days and stopping off in Calais on the way back for some lunch, a letter was attached to our family car and we saw it upon our return. I looked around and it was only attached to our car..why I dont know, it appears to be in black biro and not a photocopy. Maybe somebody recognised us as being from Doverforum..perhaps unlikely, maybe the guy just wanted it on an English car...
but the letter and here it is
..is adressed to David Cameron
Now it is not possible to follow like that so will highlight the points
"
Dear Mr Cameron - copy to press.
Your remarks on the Euro are a bit over the top, Ive been analysing this sort of question as an economist since before you were born.
1. Greece is bankrupt. It has no real option but to repudiate its debt. Its lenders were just as silly as its government.
2. The Euro is probably overvalued and may have to come down 10 - 15 % nothing more.
3. The ECB is somewhat lacking in experience and the Bank of England should step in and help, and be prepared to work closely with it on suitable terms.
4. The Euro is no more at risk from the Greek bankruptcy than the dollar was from the Euro.
5. The only member of the six to have any real problems is Italy and the IMF has congratulated that country on the way it is addressing matters.
6. The real problem is that the EU is still not delivering what it was set up to do..namely bring EU production levels up to its American counterpart levels..but that will come.
7. It is in Britains interest to stay with that aim. Because that way Britian will enjoy American production levels in time..worth it? yes.
8. To put it another way..what EU needs is 200 top companies as large as the 200 top American companies. That too will come. If you dont know that already Mr Cameron you need more competent economic advisers.
The letter was written by
David Colmba Green BSC Economics with an address in Calais.
"
There you are, much of this one way or another has already been discussed on this forum. But thought it worth reproducing as it is clearly from an ex-pat living over there in the Eurozone.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#2
the lengths people will go to avoid paying for a stamp, disagree with him on point 5, spain and portugal clearly "in it".
Guest 745- Registered: 27 Mar 2012
- Posts: 3,370
#3
Must be a crank living on the EU gravy train,
Frightened that the British mugs may vote to stop stumping up the cash .
Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
#4
Yes he is clearly living over there but possibly elderly..or probably elderly. As he was solving economic problems since before David Cameron was born according to himself. It is often forgotten though in the hubbub about immigration coming this way, that there are considerable amounts of UK citizens living over there in France. Lots of TV coverage over there of the Jubilee celebrations including interviews from Brits living there..some were interviewed from that well known haunt of the anglo saxon...the Dordogne..the brits were speaking French in the interviews too...shock!! Proper French, not just the.."I say gendarme..where Eiffel Tower?"
The problem with the economic outlook is that nobody actually knows what to do for sure, even Nobel prize winning economists cant hit the nail on the head, speak to a hundred economists and you will get a 100 different answers/solutions to the problem. I guess that when the world picks up from economic slump, that much of the problem will re-align itself. They are still experiencing growth in the Northern EU economies as we write.
Guest 745- Registered: 27 Mar 2012
- Posts: 3,370
#5
Yes Paul
Lots of British have retired in to the EU, taking there pensions and wealth with them.
And investing into properties and business creating jobs.
All very good for the recipient country's economies
And what do we get?
The poor and the needy of the EU, sucking in British jobs and wages & benefits,
And uk schools overflowing with there children, at around £5000 a year to the taxpayers, probably much more than they contribute in tax .
Money earned flooding out of the UK, not very good for the British economy is it ?.
Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
#6
To me this looks clearly the case of someone who regularly reads DoverForum from Calais, and spotted PaulB. Otherwise it would be a coincidence.
I have wondered in the past who reads the Forum, and believe there are economists who do, as not many local forums have continuous coverage and opinions on economy and government decisions regarding the economy.
The letter states the euro is overvalued.
It is. So too is the super-pound overvalued, and in so being, paralyses fair trade with the East, be it the east of Europe, Asia, or Africa. As well as South America, for that matter.
However, the only solution the British Cabinet and the eurozone governments have had so far in curbing bankruptcy since 2008, has been the printing of hundreds of billions of pounds and possibly trillions of euro.
Often this comes about through digital money, but which has the same effect as paper money.
We must beware, because the balance could tip overnight.
Money has a psychological value, and to overprint it too often could spark off a reaction that spreads quickly, determining mass exodus from shares, bonds and even bank accounts, and massive inflation.
Most economic crashes come about all over a sudden and through rapid chain reactions, and usually start with one spark somewhere along the line in the links of the chain.
Everything, and I mean everything, that has to do with eurozone debt and British debt, has to do with overvalued shares, overvalued house prices, private and State debts that cannot be paid off in the conventional way, and it is all interlinked.
For example, if Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal default, British banks would lose hundreds of billions of pounds in exposed loans, and Germany and France too.
Add to that other EU countries whose banks have also lent to these four mentioned countries.
It has nothing to do with competing with the USA, which has its own economic problems similar to those of Britain and Europe.
This has all to do with debt that can never be repaid.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#7
keith is right unfortunately, the brits that relocate abroad take their money with them and spend it there.
ok we do get some who come here that are comfortably off and add to the economy by paying taxes and soending in our shops but the majority are not like that and cost us.
Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
#8
Interesting points from Keith and Howard.
Now with regards to the letter from Calais, I should also add the following: Greece has to leave the euro. One simple reason being the 10 year bond yields.
No country in their right mind would sell 10 years bonds at 30% interest and then expect to remain within the euro and avoid 30% inflation.
It is obvious that Greece must leave the euro any time soon, and print their own currency, initially one drachma to one euro, and that within 24 hours this currency will be devalued through extra printing.
Inflation in Greece must at some point reach 30%+, or their future currency must be devalued by at least 30% through extra money printing, in order to repay the 30% on their 10 year bonds.
Were Greece to remain in the eurozone, Germany, France and D. Cameron would have to dish out heaps of money to repay the Greek bonds when they are cashed in, PLUS the 30% interest.
This would be impossible to do. So it is clear that only Greece alone can do this through a new currency that becomes immediately devalued.
Similarly, Spain and Italy's 6%+ 10 year bond interest rates require an exit from the euro, as these bonds will need to be repaid with local and devalued currency.
My guess is, the economist in Calais, who knows this beyond doubt, is suggesting the euro be devalued to repay the enormous interest rates on Greek bonds, and Italian, Spanish and Portuguese bonds.
But if this were to work out, then anyone of us buying Greek bonds today (I haven't got the money to do so) would get 34% interest back, all paid in euro!
In that case, our banks, and Germany and Frances' banks, would all go for Greek bonds at 34% interest, and all their financial problems would be solved for a few years.
ONLY if Greece remained in the eurozone, though, and assuming the European Central Bank ECB would pay these interest rates on behalf of the Greek state.
To do so, the ECB would need to print an awful sum of money.
The result would be, people and companies would mass-transfer their money to Greece and invest in Greek bonds. All fantasy, of-course. It would be sheer economic suicide.
So evidently, Greece can only leave the eurozone, and Italy, Spain and Portugal will follow.
Keith Sansum1
- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,948
#9
I think we need to address the original post.
we should all recognise that paulb is a world wide celeb, no matter where he goes he is recognised.
this latest episode in calais just being a small example
ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS
Guest 722- Registered: 23 Aug 2011
- Posts: 97
#10
You're not the only one to receive letters from this chap.
[/URL]http://www.politics.ie/forum/lisbon-treaty/92559-vote-no-literature-arrives-post-france.html[URL]
Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
#11
despite what others have said so far,i'm inclined to agree with the origanal letter.
if people who have retired and deside to live and spend there hard earned money whether goverment or private pension its up to them,so no gripes there from me.
Guest 696- Registered: 31 Mar 2010
- Posts: 8,115
#12
Just noted a detail:
The man is named: Columba, not Colmba as in Paul's transcript.
Columba is an Irish name. See the Irish Columcille.
Could the letter be in reference to the recent Irish yes vote?
Having read Andy Chandler's link, it might be so.
But let's not forget that Aidan of Lindisfarne was also an Irishman, who came to Northern England from the Scottish island of Iona.
Scotus is a Latin translation for Irishman, the name deriving from the Celtic name Scot.
Ever since the Scots marched into Dover, things became more complicated
Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
#13
Indeed you are right there Alex..my keyboard is knackered some of the keys dont return up so miss the occasional letter..yes the man is called
David Columba Green
Thanks for the link Andy you almost got it LIVE...the slash URL box should be at the end and the one at the rear should be at the front, so in other words the other way around.
http://www.politics.ie/forum/lisbon-treaty/92559-vote-no-literature-arrives-post-france.htmlGuest 656- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 2,262
#14
Ah! yes indeed, I thought we had got a parking ticket for a moment when I saw the white paper under the wiper of the car but of course not, as unlike Dover, Calais and it seems almost everywhere we went from Cape Gris Nez to Boulogne to Le Touquet one can park for free. Now thats what I call a good deal..............Free
Love the pic of the Seal with her trainer at Nausicaa on the front page
Also the cute animals with the P&O Ferries Captain
Guest 744- Registered: 20 Mar 2012
- Posts: 412
#15
#5 and #7: I am about to relocate abroad having worked without a break [apart from holiday entitlement] for the past 46 years. I have never claimed one penny off the state unlike plenty who have never bothered to get off their ***** and work. Even though I will be living abroad I will be paying UK tax on my pension and on my meagre savings so I will still be contributing to the economy and supporting the growing band of scroungers and layabouts. I think that entitles me to retire when and where I choose and I only wish I had some "wealth" to take with me.
Brian
Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
#16
Good post Carole, gets things in perspective. I must admit I have been tempted to buy a property somewhere over there in France. Several years ago properties were cheap, it was all the rage on TV for example to look at French properties, so perhaps I should have done so then, but in near France anyway prices have levelled out so not many bargains to be had these days. Perhaps in rural areas might be some bargains if one fancies doing some DIY. Not much with the DIY myself.
Good luck to you Carole, looks like you deserve it. Are you off to the Dordogne?
Jan Higgins
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 5 Jul 2010
- Posts: 13,931
#17
Well put Carole and as PaulB says good luck.
Surely most of those who choose to live/retire abroad have spent their working lives paying taxes and spending their money in this country, the lazy benefit lovers sadly prefer to stay here I wonder why.
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I try to be neutral and polite but it is hard and getting even more difficult at times.
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Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
#18
carole,a word of advise,live life to the full and enjoy it.
Guest 744- Registered: 20 Mar 2012
- Posts: 412
#19
Thank you PaulB, Jan and Brian for your kind words. We are moving to a lovely, friendly village in the Loir [without an "e"] Valley. I must admit I did now know there were two Loir[e]s until a few years ago. Not far from Le Mans because I am married to a petrolhead who cannot bear to be far from a racetrack. I hope you do not "delete" me Paul as I may not be able to post for a few weeks from the beginning of August having to sort out phone/broadband/computer etc but I will still want to know what's going on in Dover.
PS: Paul the French have a very rude word for some Brits who live in the Dordogne but I could not possibly reveal it here!!
Guest 653- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,540
#20
Good Luck Carole - hope it all works out for you and your husband.
I don't know whether you'll be renting or buying, but many people (Brits) now rent instead of buying as the problems with the Euro and property values.
My brother who lives in Cyprus has sold his property and rents a bungalow - much better off.
Roger
