Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
27 January 2009
10:3313992#1
There is a lot of comment about the present political scene, characterising it as a hopeless position for Labour. A few quotes to demonstrate what I mean:
"The sleaze scandals, as they did during the dying days of the last Conservative government, will now emerge thick and fast, as disillusioned officials risk their liberty by leaking documents that should have been freely available, and journalists, scenting blood, close in. Labour will be driven from office with the same howls of execration that saw off the Tories in 1997." - George Monbiot in The Guardian
"The Conservatives are preparing for the worst: rightly so, since any new government next year will inherit dire public finances. Their new approach is going in the right direction, but it is still only a partial answer... David Cameron and George Osborne have recognised the severity of the fiscal challenge by announcing that the Tories will not match Labour's new plans for next year and beyond. Labour's response has been to drone on about cuts, but this no longer works given how bad the situation now is."- Peter Riddell in The Times
Rachel Sylvester in the Times quotes a Downing St adviser and a Minister.
"The long succession of announcements may have diminishing returns. We're burning up money, which can't go on, and the frenetic activity makes us look like headless chickens." And a normally loyal minister says "Gordon is behaving like the Leader of the Opposition rather than the Prime Minister. It's all tactics rather than strategy. He makes an announcement, gets the headline then moves on when what really matters is making sure it works."
"""""
There certainly seems to be a concensus forming that the game is up for Labour.
For the UK economy to move forward there is the need to instill confidence. There is a very good argument that to do so we need a General Election with a new Government or a renewed mandate. Only then can the slate be wiped clean and the economy can get on with recovery. The fall in the value of sterling itself demonstrates how the international community have no confidence in the Brown Government policies.
There is also an argument to say that it is dangerous for a Government to remain in power that has lost all hope of winning. We are seeing them conduct their affairs with a supreme arrogance while the economy sinks. We see them spending huge sums of money, ruining the economy, knowing they will not be the ones to pick up the pieces.
Also it might be in the best interests of Labour to hold an election sooner. The longer they hold on the worse it is likely to get for them. Cutting their losses may be their best hope.
So will Brown listen to sense and call an election sooner?
Will he go on to the bitter end causing more damage?
Will, as a result, Labour be virually wiped out and could that result in a rare political re-alignment with Labour being replaced by the LibDems as the main opposition and alternative Government?
Do not rule out the latter. Much as I dislike the LibDems they are preferable to the incompetent and discredited Labour Party whos every term of office has ended in economoc failure and their longest term of office is ending in the the biggest bust since 1931. No coincidence.
Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
27 January 2009
12:3313997#2
BarryW I would think its very unlikely Gordon Brown would call an election in the middle of the current economic crises for the simple reason that people(the voters) would not focus on it. People are very concerned right now with the falling standard of living, the massive job losses, the mortage problem and potential loss of home, etc etc. the last thing they would want right now are people knocking on their doors asking them to vote for Joan or Joe Bloggs. So the timing would be all wrong.
Also from a more cynical perspective, I saw the polls you put up yesterday which showed Labour in a disapointing light...well nobody with a poll reading like that will call and election as it would be simply handing power to the opposition. You more or less said this yourself above.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
27 January 2009
12:4213998#3
But the whole point PaulB is that we need an election to restore confidence and pathe the way for recovery. Added to that there is the danger that with their desperate flaying around in their death throes this Government will create more problems and also it would be better for Labour to get the pain of losing the election out of the way.
Personally I do not think it will happen as Brown will place his personal position ahead of the country and even the Labour Party, he will carry on to the bitter end hoping something will turn up.
The polls will get worse for them and that is what could lead to the possible re-alignment I refer to, if they hang on to the last minute.
I would suggest therefore the best hope for Labour and for the Country is to limit the damage through an early election. Brown will not do it though.
Guest 660- Registered: 14 Mar 2008
- Posts: 3,205
27 January 2009
15:3914005#4
Of course he won't Barry,and he doesn't have too,Gordon believes he can see us through these problems and he can call the election anytime he chooses,unlike in the States it is not a fixed term,and while we are talking about the States I can't see David Cameron being the next Obama.what is different from what Gordon decides to any previous P.M. they all call an election when it seems to suit them.
If you knew what I know,we would both be in trouble!
Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
27 January 2009
15:4414007#5
yes john very true,if only guy fawkes sucseeded.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
27 January 2009
17:0514010#6
JHG - he can call it any time.......
No, he must call it to be held early June 2010 so that mean we could be only about 14/15 months or so, away from the campaign starting in earnest, it gives him increasingly limited options. With his back against the wall and with the resources the Conservatives will have available a long campaign will benefit us if he goes for June 2010.
We are unlikely to be out of recession until the middle of 2010 and the public may not feel better off, despite statistics, until the latter part of 2010 or even 2011. House prices are forecast to fall 16% this year and another 9% in 2010.
The situation will be getting steadily worse throughout this year for Brown.
Like you I think he will hang on to the bitter end.
The point is, is he right to do so?
Labour may well suffer more damage the later he leaves it and there is a good case to say that the economy needs the election to be settled for confidence to be restored.
In a way I hope he does hang on because I would love to see the Labour Party destroyed to a third party rump like UKIP. On the otherhand I am concerned about what will happen to the economy over the next 14 months or so. On balance I would prefer an earlier election.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
27 January 2009
17:3514016#7
barryw you have a sadistic streek in you.if g brown pulls this out of the bag at some point sooner or latter,what would the torys poll lead be like then?.if on the other hand the banks start borrowing again and traders start getting to grip with the ayling pound things maight get back to normal sooner rather than latter.as soon as confidence sterts rolling in the city things might allso get back to normal,no point being negative as things will only get worse.
Guest 674- Registered: 25 Jun 2008
- Posts: 3,391
27 January 2009
17:4714020#8
Barryw
You still feel in a general election the Tories woul win, and you are quite right to try to promote this theme, like is being done at tory head office, and locally.
But always been one to say, look, its down the electors wot im hearing is the electorate those that will vote in/out the govt.
Also its unlikely the lib dems will do owt apart from if the tories/labour get close in seats and the Lib/dems hold balance of power(god i hope not!)
Iv always said this will be a close fought election, labour will win by a whisker, and gwyn will win to with a reduced majority.
you heard it here first
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
27 January 2009
19:3414030#9
Keith - look to what is happening. You are behind the curve.
Guest 649- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 14,118
27 January 2009
19:4314031#10
Lads, It is down again to coal who brings back coal will get in, and if your party dones not know that tell them about coal coming back,1000s of jobs and now also put the steel workers all back into work and lots more all around the land come on get on to your leaders make them take note of you and COAL.
I remain yours faithfully Vic Matcham
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
27 January 2009
20:0114033#11
norman tebbitt said much the same as you barry, about the labour part being reduced to bit players.
that kick started a labour revival, the rest is history.
lesson to be learned, i think, democracy is much more important than individuals that want complete power for one party.
27 January 2009
21:3214044#12
Party Politics can never be truly democratic, demanding as it does an unswerving loyalty to dogma, the death knell for free-thinking. However, there is still a place for charisma and charm, and we desperately need someone with either quality in british politics!!! Please - just give me a small list of current charismatic or charming politicos in Parliament..........
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
27 January 2009
21:3814046#13
or both,i pass on the other.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
28 January 2009
00:1114067#14
Bern - the reason the Conservative Party is the worlds oldest organised political party is because it is dogma free and adapts and changes to meet the times. Indeed 200 years of history (longer, to Charles 2nd, if you accept some interpretations). You exaggerate, at least as far as the Conservatives are concerned, the restrictions on free-thinking and individualism, after all if anything it is the Party of the individual. Conservatism is about shared values not being dogmatically bound to a philosophy, thats its strength, secret of survival and success.
28 January 2009
07:2814071#15
One doesn't have to accept dogma to be hog-tied to a party - unity of presentation is the key to party politics, any party. Some may also interpret the willingness to change as flip-flop-ism. It is impossible to win!! But I disagree about the Blues - I do not believe any party can be free of dogma or constraint - it is necessary to survive.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
28 January 2009
08:0214073#16
Political Parties devise an agreed programme to place before the electorate and if elected those who gain power are expected to adhere to that programme and cooperate to put it in place. Within that there is room for some principaled objection to detail. Before the election there is debate and discussion on devising that programme for Government and in the British system this is where the broad coalitions that comprise our two major parties have their say.
I find that highly democratic. More so than in those countries that are multiple party systems where no one party and policy programme carries a majority in its Parliament and where the debate on the Government programme comes after an election while trying to put together a coalition. In the UK we know what programme we will get from a winning Party before we vote.
Our system of political Parties is a practical and simpler way of governing than alternatives.
Sid Pollitt
28 January 2009
15:0014115#17
The Tories dogma free? Policy light, maybe. Next we'll be told that they're spin free.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
28 January 2009
15:3214118#18
and dont forget the sleaze.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
28 January 2009
15:4714122#19
Funny isnt it - Labour claims we are 'do nothing' or as Sid has done 'policy light', but they keep stealing our policies. The latest of course was the loan guarantee scheme proposed by Osborne in November. I wonder how many jobs will have beeen lost because the Government did not act on this idea sooner....
I suppose though Sid is right, if some thief keeps picking your pockets then you will end up with pretty light pockest. But still, there is still plenty tucked away in the safe waiting to be revealed for an election, when it is too late to get stolen.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
28 January 2009
16:0114125#20
ok fagin whats your problem,at least they are out in the open,if they work they work you can allways blame tory policy makers.