Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
#1
The great lead the Tories had with the general public, which was shown in a whole array of polls over a long period of time, seems to be dissipating now when they need it most. Yes with the Election just four short weeks away and Gordon Brown dashing hot foot to HMQueen to dissolve parliament, the Consrvatives are reeling with this latest slump. Its all published in The Guardian Newspaper today.
Despite a sterling effort from the Conservatives with lots of silly season gadgetry and gimmickry, their lead has all but gone in this latest and most respected of all polls(ICM). The public dont like the posters, havent liked George Osborne and are unsure if they cut the mustard experience wise.
Conservatives 37%
Labour 33%
LibDEms 21%
Others 9%
There has been a move back to traditional thinking, as even the Others (UKIP etc) have fallen back to traditional positioning now that the Election is getting more serious. The game is now on for real...with a hung parliament at this stage looking the likely outcome. No one will have overall majority. Step forth therefore a newly confident Nick Clegg. His beaming features as he alighted from his golden orange battlebus yesterday showed his new found confidence. ..ie, he holds the balance of power.
Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
#2
paul,thats good news but the torys cant help shooting themselfs in the foot with the gay b&b gaff,posters etc.
Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
#3
Yes Brian the Gay B&B story, as spewn by the hapless, the very hapless, Chris Grayling, has been bad news for the Tories. Not sure if that particular story has been taken into account in these latest polls, or to put it another way, Im not sure how up to the very second the polls were taken....whether or not that actual story played a part in these latest poll results, but whatever anyway...they have certainly scuppered themselves with the Gay vote with that latest clanger.
The Tories obviously started well..but have they peaked too soon? with more and more people beginning now to think twice. Their initial rosy glow flurry seems to have gone.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
#4
paulb,this electonering can be a dirty buisness.claim,counter claim etc.probably get another 6 weeks of it before the dust settles.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#5
You two need to open your eyes.
Six polls over Easter, 5 indicate an increasing Conservative lead of 10 or 11% with only ICM showing a move in the other direction. It is quite clear that the ICM poll is an 'outer', even the best polling companies get them.
Not long to wait, one month and it will be all over and Brown will be turfed out.
This election is not about what Chris Grayling said (he spoke in quite reasonable terms compared to the hysterical anti-free speech attack on him). The election is about the economy and that is what will kill it for Brown and Labour.
Guest 645- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 4,463
#6
BarryW
Correct me if I'm wrong but a recent poll put Osborne in third position behind Darling and Cable.So if Economy is the Tories strong point then they are in for a rough ride.
Marek
I think therefore I am (not a Tory supporter)
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#7
What poll Marek? Be specific. There have been a lot of polls on economic competence and the last one showed the Osborne/Cameron team ahead of the Darling/Brown team, as indeed have most of them over the last few months.
Guest 645- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 4,463
#8
The poll was taken by the Mail on Sunday and was quoted and reported overseas.Below follows an extract from the Australian press'
New polls show that despite overseeing the worst recession in decades, the Prime Minister and his Chancellor Alistair Darling have in the past two weeks overtaken Cameron and Osborne as the team that more people trust to manage the economy.
While Cameron consistently outrates Brown and the Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg as the preferred prime minister, a Mail on Sunday poll asking who would make the best chancellor had bad news for the Tories.
Osborne was ranked only third as the choice of 18 per cent, behind Darling (22 per cent) and Vince Cable, the Lib Dem spokesman who has become something of a folk hero as the only British politician to have predicted the credit crunch, and who topped the poll with 29 per cent.
BarryW Hope that's specific enough plus it's interesting to read how foreigners are viewing the current situation.
Marek
I think therefore I am (not a Tory supporter)
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#9
That is, as I say, just one of many, with most favouring Osborne/Cameron over the last 6 months.
I do agree that it is interesting to see how the UK election is viewed abroad. I follow a lot of what the Wall Street Journal has to say.
Guest 693- Registered: 12 Nov 2009
- Posts: 1,266
#10
Believe what poll you choose - the lack of consistency in the stats just goes to prove that this election is far from over and will be won in the marginals. If the election is won and lost on the economy, it'll be a Tory landslide, but it won't be. The economy will be a part of it, sure, but if the polls prove one thing, it's that the floating voters will have their say, and I think that the exorbitant rate of duty and taxation we all pay and - yes - our membership of a federal Europe will all make the millions who haven't yet decided which way they will vote have a great deal of influence over the outcome.
True friends stab you in the front.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#11
Actually the polls are remarkably consistent Andy with just one out of six diverging.
It will be an interesting election and it will be won in just 140 marginal seats.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
#12
barryw,belive what you want but the cameron/osbourne combo leaves a lot to be desired,especly if osbourne cant do his basic maths.the afore mentiond gaff by the shadow home office minister throughs the whole conservative party as a double standerd party.
andy,there is no such thing as a federal europe,europe yes,federal no.if there is a federal europe can you show me where it ses so on a map.
Guest 693- Registered: 12 Nov 2009
- Posts: 1,266
#13
Look beyond an atlas, Brian. You don't have to be an ostrich over the issue of a Federal Europe; if you're for it, you're for it and good luck to you. It will come as no surprise to you to learn that I'm bitterly opposed to it, but each to their own. Being in denial about it just plain wrong, though!
True friends stab you in the front.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#14
Well said Andy.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
#15
andy,i am for europe,i have my eyes open and see the futer.as for denial its the anti euopeans that have there heads in the sand hopeing that it will go away.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#16
No Brian, we dont want it to go away we just want out of it.
Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
#17
BarryW I can see that you are totally aligned with UKIP on the european issue. It is not the policy of the Conservatives to pull out of Europe, in fact one their leading lights and a figure much respected across all divides, Ken Clark, is pro european as you know. But okay... I recognise that there is a faction within the Conservatives who want to pull out but thats not the wider view. In fact the UKIP situation only came about at all because of disillusioned Tories searching for a solution, searching for a new home, a home that gave answers to their needs.
I therefore expect you will be voting for Vic in the upcoming election, and if not why not ? because he is offering you a natural home for your vote, is he not!
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#18
there are many disillusioned blues that will go with victor this time.
ken clarke is a very good reason for them to do so.
#19
In your dreams Howard. Vic will get slaughtered at the election, along with a good many others. Anti-Europeans are hopelessly out of touch with young thinking and any party trying to get votes on that platform with be making a big mistake.
When the hard analysis is done it will become clear Labour cannot be trusted with anything (13 years of lies and no deliveries except higher taxes, a fox hunting ban and minimum wage (a good thing)). We will see red seats switching all over the country as Gordie leads his troops to the slaughter, before they ditch him albeit too late. The LibDems will cause a stir in the West Country (as usual) and many old fart politicos willl bite the dust as aprt of the public's retribution for the Expenses scandal. The spin has spun, the lies and liars have been identified. The public wants and demands a return to honest Government and proper fiscal management.
Consequently, the Tories will march to power on a wave of hope and confidence. There will be NO hung Parliament!
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#20
one big problem with your post sid.
the young are the most disenchanted, and will fail to vote in large numbers.
take a look at the facebook poll you publish on here, most of the votes come from the young, see what they think.