It's the economy, stupid.
- 27 April 2010 17:5249323Sorry to cut and paste but it looks like the Institute for Financial Studies has come out with figures showing the magnitude of the problem facing UK plc and the measures that will be necessary to get us out of the hole.
Link to IFS briefing papers here :- http://www.ifs.org.uk/projects/323
BBC News.
Spending cuts 'deepest since 70s'
The UK faces the deepest spending cuts since the late 1970s if the three main parties are to meet their budget commitments, new analysis suggests.
The years between 2011 and 2015 must see the largest cuts since 1976-80, according to a report from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).
Its estimates suggest the Conservatives would need to make the biggest cuts.
Meanwhile a Labour government would see the biggest tax rises, the think tank predicts.
Based on commitments made so far, the Liberal Democrats would need to cut an accumulated £51bn from spending on public services by 2017.
Labour's plans would require a slightly smaller cut during that time of £47bn, the IFS said, while the Conservatives would cut by the largest amount - £57bn.
Tax rises expected
Conservative plans would "imply cuts to spending on public services that have not been delivered over any five-year period since the Second World War".
Tax increases would be highest under Labour, the analysis suggests, totalling £24bn over the course of the next parliament.
" More than halfway through this election campaign, the three largest parties have still given us only a small hint of what they would do "
Stephanie Flanders BBC economics editor
£17bn of these have already been announced, leaving £7bn unaccounted for.
But the IFS said Conservative plans to raise taxes by £14bn looked optimistic, given the party's commitment to scrap a rise in national insurance, and added that a further rise of £3.5bn would be necessary.
The Liberal Democrats' plans to raise taxes by £20bn matched the party's current budget plans, the IFS said, but it meant they would have to make the harshest cuts later on in the parliament.
In presenting the report, the IFS director, Robert Chote, criticised all three parties for failing to spell out their budget plans more clearly to voters.
"Given that this fiscal repair job is likely to be the major domestic policy challenge for the next government, it is striking how reticent all three main UK parties have been in explaining how they would confront the task," he said.
The IFS also said government borrowing over the next few years would be broadly similar for the three major parties. - 27 April 2010 18:0149326Not really much new there. It is all very well for academics to critisise the Parties in an abstract manner but the Parties are trying to win an election. Look at it from their point of view, if any one Party breaks ranks and suggests the true scale of the cuts the others will be down on them like a ton of bricks. Note what happened when George Osborne tested the water in October with his austerity message. Its a no-win situation that means all Parties have to fudge somewhat. The simple fact is that there will be massive cuts whatever Party gets elected, it is unavoidable. The blame for this situation is entirely Gordon Brown's as he has had control over the finances for the last 13 years and went on a mad spending spree when he should have been repaying debt during the growth years. Then there is the fact that the UK recession is worse than it needed to be simply because of Brown's regulatory regime failing and the mess he made of the BoE inflation brief - we have an unprecedented disaster on our hands.
- 27 April 2010 18:3949328I wish the parties would just stop treating us like imbeciles that can't be told the truth. I realise that lying comes naturally to politicians, but perhaps if they stopped 'fudging the issue' as Barry euphemistically calls it, then when they make a complete horlicks of it they won't be damned by their own lies.
I don't see why DC can't just say something along the lines of 'This is the scale of the economic disaster left by the Labour Government.......this is what it will take to put it right........this is how we intend to go about it.' They'd get far more respect from the general public if they were transparent and open about it all.True friends stab you in the front. - 27 April 2010 19:1149338i doubt if things will improve before the election, they will still be promising us everything, expecting us to believe there will be no spending cuts or tx rises.
- 27 April 2010 21:1249350Andy. If Brown was to admit the total horlicks he made of the economy and reveal the true scale of the problem we could have a sensible discussion, with more detail on how to correct the problem, (provided they throw open the 'books' and allow access to the Treasury computer model). But, of course, he will not do that and to be frank I would not expect him to anyway.
Imagine if the Conservatives (or LibDems) came up with a detailed programme. For one thing without the information only the Government has it would be too speculative anyway. They would be open to be torn apart by the Government who would make just about any claim to stay in power. It would be a hostage to fortune. In fact it would be a political disaster. No political party wanting to win an election can possibly do that, unless, as I say, the Government has a bout of concience and honesty. Not exactly likely.
Place yourself in that position and honestly say you would do it differently, if you were to say you would then you would be lieing. - 27 April 2010 21:1649351Howard- you are wrong. All three parties have said that there will be spending cuts, and tax increases have been annouced already, the Conservatives have said they wont reverse most of them. (Only NI because thats a job killer)
Famously Darling said that the cuts will have to be greater than Mrs T's. (Not exactly hard as she did not cut spending at all, the last person to do that was Callaghan, but thats splitting hairs.) - 28 April 2010 11:4649389Howard, actually all three parties claim they will cut spending drastically, especially in the public sector. So does the UKIP. The difference is, the UKIP explain they will compensate this with as many new jobs in the manufacturing sector, and this is only possible by departing from insane e.u. policies of enforced trade with whoever Brussels decrees and of taking the tax-payers money to close down factories and re-open them in the East, mass immigration and paying benefits to hoards of people louting around after marching over, decreeing equal work opportunities in Britain for every eastern Euorpean etc...
The UKIP are the only party of these four mentioned that has a chance of governong our Country and Economy. The other three would lead us into total catastrophe! They have no plans to get back and promote our lost local sectors of economy which went over to Eastern Europe and China!Chanters, Drums and Drones Potty Time http://youtu.be/99fMqpjnXYA
Rule Britannia!
Kent First http://youtu.be/04F3mAP3fV4 Keep banging on http://youtu.be/qYCU_SKmkGQ - 28 April 2010 17:5049399i have to disagree with blue barry on the subject of honesty about spending cuts.
i have looked at all the propaganda going around and all i see is how much more we will be given with no mention of tax increases.
the latest one is from boy dave saying that he will increase the state pension, spend a small fortune on the nhs, keep all the oap freebies, all this will be funded by cutting government marketing, cutting aid to china, taxing the banks and tackling benefit fraud.
i cannot see how those cuts will do anything about the deficit. - 28 April 2010 18:1549401A question that has arisen in our household is that of overseas aid. I accept that in times of emergency such as the Haiti earthquake, we should do our bit, but generally speaking can we really afford overseas aid when - not to put too fine a point on it - the country's skint?
I don't hold too strong an opinion about it, but would welcome those of others. I suppose my initial feeling is that we should put our own house in order before spending money we haven't got overseas.True friends stab you in the front. - 28 April 2010 18:5649404Plus why the Hell do we give Overseas Aid to India who have a Space Programme (which we apparently can not afford)?
- 28 April 2010 19:0249408did anyone really think that aid was given to help poor people?
it is merely a door opening tool for our businesses to get into overseas markets.
in many cases the money goes straoght into a numbered account in a swiss bank for a dictator to enjoy.
the aid to india and china speaks for itself, they are the two biggest emerging economies. - 28 April 2010 19:0749409Plus we have the greatest number of overseas students at University in the UK from China, potentially our biggest competitor.
We are actually training those who are about to overtake us! - 28 April 2010 19:1049410So why? (Posh Barry or whoever) do the blues think that Overseas Aid must remain at its present level?????
- 28 April 2010 19:4449416bob
posh barry is not allowed to discuss politics, protocol and all that, you may mean loadsamoney barry who has been known to have an opinion or two in political matters.
hope that helps. - 28 April 2010 19:5349421Howard. I do apologise. It's probably due to my upbringing, but I am still slightly surprised to find anyone who rejoices (sic) in the name of Barry to be either posh or affluent.
It looks like social mobility has started taking off.....
- 28 April 2010 20:5649442actually it is barrington, he just prefers to be on of the chaps by shortening it.
- 28 April 2010 21:0549445Howard - you just have to read a little more.
1/ Pay freeze on a public sector worker earning over £18000
2/ The dropping of large scale spending projects like id card, the NHS database, the personal accounts.
3/ Getting rid of regional development bodies and governmental structures (including a reduction in the number of MPs)
4/ Increasing the State retirement age to 66 more quickly than originally planned
Thats just a few items off the top of my head without even mentioning the efficiency savings that Gershon (the Government adviser) has identified and agreed to help implement. There will need to be more but as I have exaustively said they needs their hands on the Treasury computer model and 'the books'.
Bob - I dont know what all this name rubbish is all about, I mean 'Bob' , I had a black greyhound once of that name but that was back in the sixties.....
As for Overseas Aid - me, I would chop it except where it relates to our objectives in Afghanistan as part of the hearts and minds campaign. I really do not know why Cameron would want to protect it except to attract the votes of some 'liberals'. - 28 April 2010 21:5849448i have posted on those before barry.
seems like blue dave is turning into red dave.
pay freezes in the public sector limited to those earnimg the most.
surestart will be only for the poorere sections of the community.
university top up fees for the middle classes.
tax credits stopped for the higher earning people.
pension credit, fuel allowances and bus passes protected by the previously wicked blues. - 29 April 2010 06:3849459Then why make such a clearly incorrect statement howard that you know not to be true?
As for 'red Dave' utter nonsense. Remember its Brown's mismanagement of the economy that has brought us to these dire straits. - Brian Dixon
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- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
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29 April 2010 06:4049460i disagree barry,more like bankers being greedy and putting this country on its knees.