howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#1
steel ourselves.
i promise not to post anymore that come up.
daily eggs press/opinium
blues 35&
reds 27%
yellows 26%
populus/times(posh barry has it ironed before reading)
blues 37%
reds 28%
yellows 27%
harris/daily hate/mail
blues 35%
reds 29%
yellows 27%
yougov/ sun
blues 35%
reds 28%
yellows 28%
these all point to a hung parliament with boy dave becoming a man.
personally i think that the blues will do better, having pumped so much money into marginals, so that could have a big effect.
then we do not know what the 11 or 12% others have done, i have a suspicion that ukip will have a big say in things.
another thing, 40% still have not made up their minds yet.
yet another thing, a fifth of the electorate have already voted, so all the 24 hour a day stuff in the later stages from the leaders will have been wasted on them.
the real winners in this election so far appears to be the yellows, nick clegg came out of the blocks running, then gradually fell back. however the yellows started the campaign with 17% and are now hovering in the middle to late twenties.
seems to me a new force in politics, maybe the reds have gone too far to the centre ground and a sizeable amount of the electorate still prefer a left wing choice.
i will try not to post anymore on the election issue, but the whole thing is so different to the polls of recent years it will be difficult.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#2
They are not all pointing towards a hung Parliament Howard.
The problem is that most commentators still use UNS and that will not work and has never been successful in translating votes to seats. Even the few other seat calculators, not based on UNS, may not be able to cope with the rise of the LibDems throwing out the figures. The Andy Cooke model, using the Times survey, suggests a Tory overall majority of 6 for example but with this new factor it could easily be 30/40 either side.
This is what is going to be so fascinating tomorrow night and will keep us glued to the result programmes.
Guest 672- Registered: 3 Jun 2008
- Posts: 2,119
#3
I'm sorry but i have to say. (only my opinion)
These opinion polls throw everyone out of sync, how many people are in a poll?
with? 40 to 50 million people entitled to vote how can you get a swing to this or that group.
Surely you have to wait until the actual day to get a proper result. these polls just have people running round like headless chickens and can't make their minds up.
For the first time for many years I may vote, but then again I don't believe a word any of them say, then again I may spoil my vote. I don't listen to polls.
Good luck to all tomorrow night, I think I'll have a beer and a film before it all gets taxed again.
grass grows by the inches but dies by the feet.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#4
Ian - the polls can be remarkably accurate and they are more sophisticated than ever before. You can see that from the Mayoral elections in London with YouGov who were spot on and ICM who were right in 2005. Most polls are within the margin of error. Where they have always had a problem is in the translation of votes percentages to seats. So they are a good guide to what is happening but you do always have to watch for the odd 'outier'.
Guest 672- Registered: 3 Jun 2008
- Posts: 2,119
#5
But surely Barry these polls are enticing people to go with the percentages and not their hearts or their minds.
Be gentle with me, you know about me and polotics.
grass grows by the inches but dies by the feet.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#6
barry
i did say that about the marginals being different and that the overall swing is not indicative of all constituencies.
ian
you have made a very good point there, some people are easily swayed and want to be with the rest of the herd.
Guest 672- Registered: 3 Jun 2008
- Posts: 2,119
#7
Thank you Howard. once or twice a year you are very kind to me.
Iv'e always said to my girls " if you want to be a sheep, run with the crowd, If you want to be a wolfe (like your dad) be yourself........
grass grows by the inches but dies by the feet.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#8
Polls are not meant to sway anyone, they are just to gauge opinion. Anyone who votes on the basis of whoever is top, or whatever, in the polls is a pretty sad individual.
Lets face it there is plenty of good reaons to vote:
On the negative side, there is our sociopath so called prime minister who thinks ordinary people with genuine concerns are bigoted. Then there is his complete incompetence over 13 years. Dont be fooled by his attemtps to blame everything and everyone else, it does not wash. he was in charge and he screwed up the economy making the cyclical recession worse than it ever need be.
Then on the positive side. We have some very exciting educational reforms proposed by the Conservatives, the devolvement of power back down to us with the reduction in central controls. Then the need to reduce the deficit to prevent a complete economic meltdown. The latter is important because the State is far too large and overbearing and must be trimmed back regardless of the economic imperative.
Guest 672- Registered: 3 Jun 2008
- Posts: 2,119
#9
Sorry Barry, NO COMMENT. your trying to sway me.
grass grows by the inches but dies by the feet.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#10
don't bother ian, blue barry has conservative stamped through him like a stick of rock.
the jehovahs witness of politics.
no offence to barry, he will probably agree with me anyway.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#11
The last polls _
I believe from this the Conservatives are on the cusp of an overall majority. Two reasons, Conservatives more likely to vote and are polling more 'solidly'. The momentum taking the average for 3 weeks since the surge for Libdems started has been towards the Tories and that could continue over next 24 hours.
Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
#12
barry,dont count your chickens to soon,you may be disapointed.polls are like shares they go down as well as up.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#13
Look at trends though Brian... not long to wait.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#14
my gut reaction is that barry is right on this one.
my guess is an overall majority of 20 - 30 seats.
#15
For once I think that Vic is right.
Buy tinned food (beans?).
It would also be helpful if you renew your shot-gun license and avail yourself of a wheelbarrow for carrying around devalued currency....
#16
Bob, I've already got my wheelbarrow but John Major took my shotgun away.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
#17
barry,one word,disapointment to the blues.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#18
I suspect not Brian....
Guest 667- Registered: 6 Apr 2008
- Posts: 919
#19
On a lighter note, whatever happened to the Silly Party, are they still about or did it die with Screaming Lord Such?
Barry, sorry I may appear a little thick with this one but looking at the chart and if you are right with Conservatives 307, Labour 229 and Lib 82 how is that an overall majority does not the opposition add up to 311. I always thought that an overall majority was more seats than the total opposition.
I do hope there is an overall majority but not too bigger a one as I was always led to understand a good Government only comes about from having a good strong opposition.
Anyway did my bit and I might just stay up a little tonight just to see how it's all going.
Guest 667- Registered: 6 Apr 2008
- Posts: 919
#20
Again looking at Barry's chart does it not show how unfair the political system is.
The Lib/Dems get the same percentage vote as Labour and 9% behind the Conservative but only get 82 Seats.
So do the Lib/Dems not have a strong case for a change in the electorial system and if not why not? Just a thought I am no political beast as I am sure you know by now.
