Guest 645- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 4,463
#1
A poll out today commissioned by the Independent newspaper showed a drop in the Polls for the Tories.
Conservatives 36% down 2%
Labour 25% up 3%
Lib/Dems 19% down 1%
If this was reflected in a General Election it would result in the Tories having a majority of 10 seats in a new parliament. Not such a crushing landslide as previously predicted. But remember it is only a Poll. There is a byelection looming so that may prove a better indicator of the publics voting intentions. I have forgotten where it is...norfolk somewhere where Labour had a 5000 majority at the last election.
Marek
I think therefore I am (not a Tory supporter)
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#2
Compares with a YouGov yesterday where Con vote went up to 40% again and Labour down a couple of points, dont remember the exact figures but that is consistent with the previous YouGov with a small improvement for Conservatives. That one gave a Tory majoority of around 69.
Interesting point about bias in our electoral system:
If you put ComRes' figures into UK Polling Report's Election Calculator you get the Tories 3 short of a majority. If you reverse the figures and put Labour on 36% and us on 25% you get a Labour majority of 116.
Sorting the unfair electoral system has got to be a Tory priority.
As I have said before this is where we need to 'level out' the size of Constituences combined with the proposed 10% reduction in the number of seats, getting rid of these inner city rotten boroughs that so distort the election results.
Another interesting bit of detail from that Comres poll.
They asked people which party they trusted most to decide where public spending cuts should be made: 31 per cent said the Tories, 21 per cent Labour and 14 per cent the Liberal Democrats. Some 16 per cent trusted no party, 10 per cent said they didn't know and 7 per cent named other parties.
Guest 645- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 4,463
#3
Barryw
Interesting point about the bias in our electoral system. I have never taken much notice of opinion polls as they can create a false sense of either security or insecurity and can effect the way people vote or not even bother to turn up as its either a sure fire win or a no hope loss. Research showed that it was the staying at home of the party faithful that normally effected the result of an election not the switching of allegiances from Tory to Labour or vice versa as most people often wrongly assume.
Marek
I think therefore I am (not a Tory supporter)
Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
#4
I imagine the biggest percantage rise would be in the group that "trust no party!" as the way politics has been through the mud recently it has killed interest for many people. The Daily Telegraph did a spledid job revealing all despite one or two whingers claiming its a witch hunt. The blacked out forms recently were an insult to the public, proving once again that the Westminster Village have lost complete touch. The should rename Westminster never neverland! They are almost a laughing stock, that would be so of course, if someone could find something amusing about it all.
I am surprised Labour has gone up in the polls. Just when you think all is lost there is a tiny spurt of hope, a green shoot. A lot hinges these days on the performance of the leader...like never before. The leader gets the mood right and a lot else will fall into place. I think the cuts issue is the big one now. Where will the cuts fall. Will the Tories cut too much when and if they get in. Will I lose my winter fuel allowance and so on so forth. Yes the cuts are the issue. Nobody really wants cuts in services.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#5
At the moment we have the politics of lies and deception.
Usually politicians stretch and twist the truth, sometimes out of recognisable bearing to the truth, but without actually telling real porkies. That has changed and out and out bare faced lies are integral to Labour's strategy. This whole cuts thing is the proof in any were needed. It is there in black and white, set out in Labour's budget figures, but what does Brown do, he tells bare faced lies about it. Lie may be an ugly word but it is the only one that truly expresses what Brown is about. In the past words like 'Brownies' have been used to avoid what is seen as a harsh word but as I see it we now should abandon politeness and describe what Brown says for what it is, lies.
This is ant interesting article on the same subject with the main focus being the lies told by Brown's right hand man, Ed Balls.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3725278/balls-lies.thtml
The article highlight one section of an article I read in the Sunday Times quoting a Government Minister explaining this new electoral strategy based on lies.
""""We don't care if the commentators or the economists turn against us. This is all about shoring up the base in the northern heartlands, which we lost in the European elections. We don't want or need them to understand the nuance of the argument. We just want them to hate the Tories again.""""""
I am convinced this strategy wont work in the long run. It will bite Labour right where it hurts most. The Conservatives just need to be seen to be telli ng the truth and to make sure the lies, with evidence, are exposed for what they are.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#6
you have to read everything that they write very carefully
politicians are very clever at telling some of the truth.
when rumours abound that a government ot an incoming party have a very unpopular plan up their sleeve, the spokesperson states "we have no plans to etc etc".
this translates as"yes but you cannot prove it".
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#7
That is correct, howard, never before though have I heard such blatent out and out lies being told, lies that are proven lies by the Government's own budget!
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#8
Talking of liars, Liam Byrne is at it too. He was on Newnight claiming that the Tories had promised to reverse the 50p tax hike and had made the inheritance tax change a priority. Both of which are out and out lies.
The IHT change is a first term intention (ie within 4 years), not a first year priority and GO has said that he cannot say that he will be able to get rid of the 50p rate in the current economic climate. Personally I think getting rid of the 50p rate should be a big priority because it will reduce not increase tax revenues. Not getting rid of it (and imposing it) are purely political designed to appeal to the lowest possible common denominator.
Sid Pollitt
#9
As I said on another thread, Nick Robinson said on the Daily Politics show last week that he thought the Tories were intent on attacking the man rather than the policies. They are probably replicating this approach across the country and are sending chain emails on this tactic. Maybe PaulB will have a seperate section for those who want to call others liars and make cheap jibes.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#10
You are totally unable to defend or justify what Brown, Balls and Byrne are saying then Sid. That tells us a lot.
You keep mentioning chain emails - this is just a figment of your imagination Sid.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#11
i am not sure that accusing people of telling lies is the right way to go about things.
not allowed in parliament, not acceptable in evreyday life either.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#12
But it is what us happening. If you read the article you will Brown is counting on such reactions to enable them to get away with it. That must not happen and we should nail them for telling out and out lies.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#13
barry
politics has reached a new low in the public perception.
i doubt that many people are really interested in what the leaders say at the moment.
both sides seem more intent on keeping or gaining power than trying to get the cpountry back on a good footing.
i used to read a column in a national paper from michael gove, always an interesting read, then it transpired he was looking after himself very nicely on expenses.
nett result, i do not read his column anymore.
until the leading cabal out these people and convince us that everything is clean again, no one will take much notice of anything that they say.
Guest 674- Registered: 25 Jun 2008
- Posts: 3,391
#14
Yeap sid, he dont like it up em as they said in dads army lol
Cameron also nnot over truthful on all the cuts the conservatives would bring in should they ever form a govt(heavren forbid)
Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
#15
two thirds of the torys want nhs cuts acording to a report i read earlier.
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#16
I have said many times that the Conservative policy of not cutting health is wrong. The NHS should suffer its share of the cuts to come. It is a bloated and inefficiently run budget.
howard mcsweeney1- Location: Dover
- Registered: 12 Mar 2008
- Posts: 62,352
#17
no doubt it is, the tragedy will be that the waste will go on despite any cuts.
patient care, waiting times and anything front line will suffer.
the administrators and middle management will survive.
Brian Dixon- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
#18
will the last person leaving the nhs please turn the lights out.
Guest 640- Registered: 21 Apr 2007
- Posts: 7,819
#19
The Tories have never been great lovers of the NHS. They were over the years lovers and endorsers of private medicine and many of their 'duck house' and 'moat' members wouldnt touch the NHS with a barge pole. Just 5 or so years ago they were paving the way for massive change to the NHS and replacing it in part with private medicine. Public opinion quickly told them this was not a goer. The public hate anybody messing with the NHS...people get nervous about it for real.
Today the Tories are talking about cutting KWANGOs...this has been the flagship idea of every single shadow minister since time immemorial, but it never happens when the individual concerned actually gets into power..as most of the bloody KWANGOs are needed...this they find once assuming office.
When you cut services it is a pipedream to think that only the poor bits will get cut out. When you come down to brass tacks who the hell would decide anyway.
The all too true sad fact is that they may cut a hospital wing or a childrens clinic or two but the good people will go out with the bad. In other words with the ones you would like to get rid of..the ones you DONT want to get rid of will also go. Its the way of these things.
Very rarely will they cut the waste areas or individuals alone as that wont save enough money to spit at...its whole services that go. Hospitals, hospital wings, clinics, maybe even our new proposed hospital here in Dover?
Guest 655- Registered: 13 Mar 2008
- Posts: 10,247
#20
PaulB - There will be massive public expenditure cuts, that is certain whoever wins the election. The NHS must carry its share of the burden or there will be bigger cuts elsewhere.
The fact is that there is more fat and waste in public expenditure than ever before simply because public expenditure has been allowed to boom with no real restraint for 12 years. That is true in the NHS as it is in almost every other area of Government with just one exception, Defence, where there has been no spending boom.
Cutting spending without harming important front line services will be easier than it has ever been before. By front line services I am referring to those that are of great importance to the public. That would be money spent in actual health care for instance and not in the beaurocracy and p.c. bull that forms a massive 'tail' behind it.
Over the last 12 years the State has grown to interfere in many more aspects of our lives than ever before and that can be chopped completely. The role and expectations of what the State can and should do must be reduced.
I note that my urging of a 20% cut in public spending is now a figure being spoken about more widely in the media. That is what is needed.