Exit surveying has shown the UKIP vote was a protest against all the major parties - unless you happen to be a Labour supporter like Keith when any result will always be a protest against the Conservatives.
There's also a good prospect that many postal voters would have voted differently if leaving their voting to polling day and UKIP might well have won.
It was much the same at the St Rads election, an independent got a very high vote against the incumbent party as a protest against party politics ruling over what the town needs.