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  Courtesy Daily Telegraph.............
  
  Senior Conservatives conceded that they could be pushed into third place by Ukip, despite the Prime Minister having pledged to hold a referendum on Britain's membership of the EU.
  Chris Grayling, the Justice Secretary, warned on Wednesday night that a "vote for Ukip is effectively a vote for the Lib Dems" because it would split Tory support.
  A Lib Dem win would be a major blow for Mr Cameron because the by-election is being held as Mr Clegg's party faces a sexual harassment scandal and follows the resignation of the previous Lib Dem MP, Chris Huhne, after he admitted perverting the course of justice.
  The Conservatives would be unlikely to win the next general election without winning seats such as Eastleigh.
  Both the Tories and the Lib Dems said that turnout would prove crucial today, with strategists unsure over whether the allegations surrounding Lord Rennard would deter Mr Clegg's supporters from voting at the last minute. Senior Conservatives were preparing for a defeat that would heap pressure on Mr Cameron's leadership and George Osborne's position as Chancellor.

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