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Just to give a few observations;
1; The conservative may be well known in Nonington but needs to be known in all the ward, my understanding is the candidate got only a handful of votes in Aylesham.
2; Turn out was higher than expected on Christmas week
3; Labour didn't call the by election
4; You really do need to live in the real world If Charlie feels Aylesham is going Tory he needs his head testing, it will for some time to come return a labour candidate
5;Of course Sue if parties fully canvass any ward they are likely to increase the vote a little, but take a look at past results in the ward you seriously think this will be over turned? I don't think so