The post you are reporting:
UKIP changed the landscape because the Conservative Party feared a mass exodus of voters would join UKIP. That, combined with the constant lobbying of the right wing Tory element (Cash, Bone, Hollobone, Fabricant etc.) meant that the PM became boxed in as he didn't want to appear too pro Europe and didn't really have anywhere to go. By the time he, well, grew a pair and decided to take on Farage, the damage was done.
Fast forward and we are where we are; a referendum the PM never really wanted. No other political party was calling for it either. As it happens, I think he has done a fairly decent job in the changes he has got in negotiation. There was never going to be a treaty change, certainly not one that would have been done before the now legally binding referendum date.
I hope we choose to remain in - but my fear is that those who want to leave the EU, really do mean it and will vote en masse. Those who are pro Europe, tend not to share the same passion and may not bother. So, on a ridiculously low turn out, we will leave the EU and everyone will turn around, scratching their heads, saying "how on earth did that just happen..."