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Great news for Sansum, the gist of his post is UKIP are certs, he can get an 80% return on his money.
I'd be surprised if UKIP won, the resources aren't a patch on Labour's who know exactly how to win elections like this. UKIP have won 2 by elections, on both occasions the MP was incumbent, albeit changing parties, this is different altogether.
I like Nuttall very much and would be pleased if he won but anybody backing them at odds on must be mad.