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I think that you may be right Keith, though I do think we will see a much bigger incident of tactical voting at the next election (whenever that may be) and even here in Dover that might just swing it against Elphicke.
The challenge for Starmer is that even before the, frankly, damning Foorde report he had managed to marginalise and alienate much of the traditional labour left and it will take a hell of a lot to get them to consider supporting a Labour Party with him at the helm. Perhaps the answer is a new leader before the GE, though I doubt the PLP & centre right factions will go with that. His only hope is that people do vote tactically to "get the tory out" and Labour end up as the largest party in a hung parliament.
P.S. you did point out much the same reasons for non voting as I did, I was just re-iterating...