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Courtesy of the Sunday Times
Britain’s political parties are defined more than ever by their leaders. Whatever the outcome, Theresa May owns this Brexit — red lines, Chequers agreement and all. Labour is now the cult of Jeremy Corbyn and his Soviet-era prejudices. Vince Cable became Liberal Democrat leader in 2017 without a contest or challenger. Nicola Sturgeon epitomises the Scottish National Party’s hegemony north of the border as the chosen heir of Alex Salmond, the prime mover of the push for independence. Yet neither May nor Corbyn, Cable nor Sturgeon are in command of their parties this week, as parliamentary wrangling resumes with just 208 days to go until the UK leaves the EU. Net disapproval ratings of all four leaders have risen during the summer break. The Tories and Lib Dems talk of when, not if, their leader will be replaced. Corbyn’s inflexibility has made Labour brittle to resignations and possible splits. Sturgeon’s closeness to her predecessor has become a liability as Salmond sues her faltering government over leaked allegations against him of sexual misconduct.
All the current leaders could be gone by the next election, due on May 5, 2022. Yet none has an obvious successor. Deliverance via the ballot box is unlikely, since at least politicians and people agree that they don’t want an early election. If there were one, opinion polls suggest the result would be the same: inconclusive, with the Tories the largest party in a hung parliament. Which leader will fall first — perhaps even this autumn? In the next few days, Cable will voluntarily place his head on the block with a speech proposing that the next Lib Dem leader should not have to be an MP. There’s logic here, because the party is down to just a dozen in the Commons. Sadly, the most-tipped parliamentary outsider, Gina Miller, the forceful and photogenic pro-EU campaigner, has already said “very flattering, but no”. Officials insist Cable is not standing down “any time soon”, but things could go sour by the seaside in Brighton when the leadership rules are debated later this month at his party’s conference. Cable will be 79 in 2022. An election would be a formidable challenge for a man who admits that he was exhausted as a cabinet minister in the coalition government back before 2015.
Vince the Knife was a deadly participant in the bloodletting that brought down Charles Kennedy and Menzies Campbell. Party elders are realising that the leadership is not their real problem, however. Britain’s fourth-largest party is drowning, but nobody sees it waving because of its low profile. It has tried youth and enthusiasm with Nick Clegg and Tim Farron, sandwiched between the age and experience of Campbell and Cable, and none of it has worked since Clegg won the right to be subsumed in coalition with the Tories. The party’s brand is tainted. Wiser Lib Dems, including Cable, believe their best chance would be to relaunch again, joining other pro-European centrists in a wider realignment of political parties.
Both Labour and the Conservatives are broken as coherent political forces. The ideological chasms opening up between Corbyn and Hilary Benn, say, or between Jacob Rees-Mogg and Nicky Morgan, render it close to impossible that these parties can come together constructively for a generation at least. But activists on both left and right are fighting viciously for total victory over their centrist colleagues because the historical associations of the Tory and Labour parties are invaluable electoral assets.
Corbyn is not threatened directly by Labour’s factional infighting; he thinks he’s the general of the winning side. He is vulnerable because of the deficiencies of his character. Whatever their private views, more pragmatically ambitious voices, ranging from John McDonnell to Jon Lansman of Momentum, would have shut down the anti-semitism row long ago by pasting the internationally accepted definition into the party rule book. It is too late now. A summer of campaigning has been lost, and when new policies are noticed they will be cast in a sinister light. Corbyn is mounting an equally stubborn resistance to a more pro-EU stance, though many allies argue there are votes in backing a second referendum and continued trade ties to the EU. Many of his young supporters will disagree with him openly on both issues at conference in Liverpool.
Frank Field is his own man, a Brexiteer with the demeanour of a holy martyr, who has never got on well with any Labour leadership. Yet his resignation letter to the chief whip spoke for many Labour MPs when it condemned “a culture of intolerance, nastiness and intimidation” that has grown up under Corbyn. Field and fellow MP John Woodcock have broken officially with Corbyn’s Labour. Mike Gapes says he will follow. Other MPs, from deputy leader Tom Watson down, are in talks as to how to dissociate themselves further. The Stalinist left has a long history of dispensing with comrades who outlive their usefulness. Corbyn will be 73 in May 2022.
Theresa May can look forward to her conference in Birmingham with the least enthusiasm of all. Another cough and collapsing-scenery climax and she’ll be out as quickly as Iain Duncan Smith after Blackpool 2003. Boris Johnson is set to stir up insurrection on the fringe. If May survives into October, she must reach a deal with Brussels and get MPs and Lords to back it. Difficult, but not impossible. At every step, her own MPs could knock her over by asking for a confidence vote, but to what end? They do not want Rees-Mogg or Johnson and might deny the mass membership the chance to vote for either. Ruth Davidson, the charismatic Scottish Tory leader, is unavailable for national service and on maternity leave, although her forthcoming book will be a timely reminder of her bright prospects.
Sturgeon was the golden girl of Scottish politics until Davidson’s rise. The first minister’s feminism is now clashing with Salmond’s paternalism. But her continuing closeness to her “mentor and friend” means she also faces uncomfortable questions about their three private meetings before the allegations became public. Party unity is crumbling. A dark cloud hangs over Sturgeon’s plans for the remainder of the year: the annual “plan for government”, for presentation on Tuesday, and a big push for indyref2 at next month’s conference in Glasgow. The SNP’s 11 years in power are due to be tested at the Holyrood elections in 2021. The most secure party leader in the UK is the least active: Arlene Foster of the Democratic Unionist Party. She said “no” to meeting the Pope last week. She doesn’t have a seat at Westminster, though her party props up the government at a price. She won’t take up the post of first minister because of disagreement with Sinn Fein. Northern Ireland holds the European record for 595 days without a government. Negativity, uncertainty and division rule in Britain today. Political leaders, parties and people have no idea in which direction they are heading and whose hands will be on the helm tomorrow.
@AdamBoultonSky