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Courtesy of the Sunday Times.
Theresa May will be warned today that her government faces total collapse unless she passes her Brexit deal — as the prime minister’s aides were at loggerheads over whether to accept a soft Brexit or call a general election this week. In an emergency conference call last night Brexiteer cabinet ministers agreed they would resign if May accepted a customs union or got Tory MPs to vote for the UK to take part in European elections in May. They will deliver their threat when the prime minister consults her cabinet today. More than half her Commons party, 170 MPs and ministers, have signed a letter telling May to pursue a no-deal departure from the EU rather than accept a soft Brexit. It also demands that the UK leave the EU by May 22.
But May will face resignations from at least six cabinet ministers on the party’s remain wing if she backs no-deal. In a leaked email, the immigration minister Caroline Nokes, who attends cabinet, told a constituent May’s “deal is dead” and said she would prefer “no Brexit rather than crashing out”.
Last night an opinion poll put Labour on 41%, up 5 points, with the Conservatives down 7 points at 36%, which would translate into Jeremy Corbyn being 19 seats short of a majority. MPs will seek to hijack the Commons agenda tomorrow to try to agree on permanent membership of the customs union, a Norway-style deal inside the single market, or a second EU referendum. If May does not accept the outcome, they have threatened to pass legislation to force her to do so. But two leading constitutional experts have warned that the government has the right to ask the Queen to refuse to give royal assent to any bill forced on the government by backbenchers.
A paper passed to No 10 yesterday warns that attempts by backbenchers to seize power from the government will “provoke damaging institutional conflict” and “may prompt the government to respond with countermeasures”. The document, written by Sir Stephen Laws QC, a former first parliamentary counsel — the government’s most senior lawyer on constitutional matters — and Professor Richard Ekins, head of the think tank Policy Exchange’s judicial power project, reads: “The process of royal assent has become a formality, but if legislation would otherwise be passed by an abuse of constitutional process . . . the government might plausibly decide to advise Her Majesty not to assent to the bill” — though it would be preferable for MPs not to force the matter. Senior government sources said such a nuclear option would be difficult since the Queen is supposed to be above politics. But May’s advisers acknowledged that she is facing an almost impossible situation this week.
The prime minister’s team want to put her Brexit deal before MPs for a fourth time on Tuesday. If it fails again, her spin doctor, Robbie Gibb, and political aide Stephen Parkinson are pushing for a general election — a stance that has provoked heated exchanges with the chief whip, Julian Smith.
One Brexiteer cabinet minister described a general election as “an act of ultimate self-harm” and said a customs union was “not Brexit” and would lead to Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister.
The minister accused remainers of “the ultimate act of betrayal” for seeking to push the country towards a customs union. “What they are doing is an absolute betrayal of the referendum result and of this country. I cannot understand how any of them can describe a customs union as any kind of Brexit. You may as well revoke article 50.”
Another cabinet minister said: “We have got to stick by our manifesto commitment not to join a customs union. It would be deeply damaging to hold EU elections. If they are going to happen, Labour MPs will have to vote for them.” However, May’s chief of staff, Gavin Barwell, and deputy, David Lidington, are pressing for a soft Brexit deal and a growing number of Conservative MPs are set to back a new referendum.
At least six have indicated they are prepared to back the so-called Kyle-Wilson amendment by which any final Brexit deal approved by MPs should be approved by voters too. They include Richard Harrington and Steve Brine, who resigned as ministers earlier this month, as well backbenchers Mark Garnier and Ed Vaizey. Bim Afolami, the MP for Hitchin and Harpenden, said: “We now need to come up with a stable alternative to the prime minister’s deal and I think a confirmatory referendum has to be considered.”
Labour MPs backing a soft Brexit compromise are expected to travel to Brussels soon to thrash out the details with European Commission officials, negotiating behind the back of ministers. MPs reacted with fury to the prospect of an election, saying they would vote for one only if the prime minister stood aside and let someone else lead the party into the campaign. Two-thirds of the Commons would have to back the plan to trigger an election. They said dozens of Tory association chairmen are writing to Conservative campaign headquarters warning that there cannot be an election because the Tories would face a “wipeout”. Tory whips have also told MPs to expect parliament to sit through the planned Easter recess, a move that has angered MPs. One former minister said: “It is becoming increasingly clear that those who run parliament either have grown-up children, no children or hate their family. Not all of us are rich and can afford to cancel plans at the last minute.”