The post you are reporting:
New on the Times website.
The European Union is ready to take the decision to delay Brexit hours before Britain crashes out at midnight on March 29 amid “political chaos” in Westminster. Diplomatic notes written for European leaders before a summit on Thursday indicate that the EU is deeply pessimistic that Theresa May can win parliamentary support for her Brexit deal. The notes were written before the Commons Speaker John Bercow told MPs that the prime minister cannot put her withdrawal deal before parliament for a third time without substantial changes. The EU expects the prime minister to write a letter on Wednesday to Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, asking for an extension to the Article 50 withdrawal procedure to avoid a no-deal Brexit in 11 days’ time.
She will seek a short, technical, extension, if there is a positive vote on Tuesday and a ‘long’ extension in the event of a negative vote, without excluding the possibility of an extremely difficult fourth meaningful vote next week after the summit,” said one diplomatic note. European diplomats and officials regard “a negative or unclear outcome as the most probable” and Michel Barnier, the EU’s lead negotiator, has warned of “huge political volatility” after the votes. In the event that Britain has not passed the withdrawal agreement by next week, the EU will use a special procedure, if European leaders agree on Thursday, for a long extension to Brexit “within hours of midnight” on 29 March.
In the case of a long extension of between one and two years, Britain will be required to hold elections to the European Parliament before July 1. The EU anticipates three looming issues for European governments to deal with if the withdrawal agreement cannot get a parliamentary majority. The first will be for the EU to push for a new political declaration on the future relationship by next week, committing Britain to a permanent customs union. The aim, according to comments made by Mr Barnier, will be to “help to convince Labour MPs in the event of a fourth meaningful vote”. In the event of a long delay to Brexit and a potential general election, the EU is concerned that Britain will attempt to tear-up and renegotiate the withdrawal agreement. “The withdrawal agreement requires no adjustment and applies in all situations,” said an EU note.
One diplomatic note warned that elections or a Conservative leadership context would “bring to government political forces or personalities that could scrap [the] agreement with the risk of a disorderly withdrawal, even if deferred over time”. Another concern is that Britain will use its continued EU membership to and voting power and veto to disrupt key decisions on spending, trade and other Brussels legislation. During talks last week, Martin Selmayr, the secretary general of the European Commission, said that Mrs May would have to give a “commitment in her written request not to participate in budget or other sensitive discussions”. France, Belgium, Ireland and Spain are the countries most ardently demanding a long extension. France has told other EU countries that without ratification of the withdrawal deal it would be better to have a no-deal Brexit on March 29 than a short extension for a few weeks with an extra cost to business.