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Courtesy of the Times.
The real problem is Theresa May’s political weakness and that there is no silver bullet to kill the Brexit crisis. There is much sound and fury about the booming attorney-general Geoffrey Cox and his clashes in Brussels but the latest blow in the Brexit saga is much more fundamental. Britain went over the top with Irish backstop demands this week but that was not the real reason that European Union negotiators rejected them. To put it simply, the EU does not believe that the prime minister can win a “meaningful vote” majority next Tuesday even if Mr Cox gets what he needs to overturn his previous legal advice.
“There is no indication that talks would actually secure a positive vote. Without such an indication, EU leaders will not entertain altering the Withdrawal Agreement,” one diplomat said last night.
The EU side has noted — and banked — that there is a greater prospect of MPs voting next week to block a no-deal Brexit and to go for an extension, effectively removing the last leverage the prime minister has as talks go to the wire. This week was described by EU negotiators as Mrs May’s “last shot” and it is in big trouble. Most, in Westminster and Brussels, now expect a long extension if the current Brexit package fails to get through and the withdrawal treaty is not ratified by end of the month. As the talks drag on and new cliff edges loom, the backstop problems will still be there for whoever is in government or whoever is in charge of talks.
As for the emergence of softer Brexit, around either Jeremy Corbyn’s plans for a permanent customs union or a cross-party “Common Market 2.0”/Norway-plus option, there is trouble ahead there, too.
Soft Brexit does not do away with the Irish backstop, which will remain an “insurance policy” that the EU will insist on, come what may in the political chaos and uncertainty of British politics. If a slender majority can be found for a permanent customs union then the consensus will rapidly run into trouble as the question of losing all control over trade policy to the EU begins to bite. Inside the EU’s external tariff zone but not as full member, Britain would have have zero control over trade policy and would have to accept that economic rivals such as Germany and France would set the terms of future trading relationships with China or America.
Many in Labour are highly suspicious of the EU’s “neo-liberalism” and it is worth remembering that the biggest political movement in Britain before Brexit was “38 Degrees”, a left-leaning campaign against Brussels trade negotiations with the United States. The Common Market 2.0 or Norway-plus option will quickly be be hit by debates over vassalage and regulatory alignment without a say via level-playing-field demands that the EU will insist on. No Norwegian government has ever faced anything like it because, unlike Britain, Norway is a small economy dominated by the simplicities of trade in fish and fossil fuels. Then there is the free movement issue, which is only theoretically dealt with in EEA/Norway arrangements. There is no suggestion that it would limit EU migration in the British context, robbing it of much appeal in the Labour constituencies that voted Leave. It might not be all over for Mrs May.
Her saviour might take the unlikely form of Martin Selmayr, the EU’s most senior civil servant, known for his hostility to Britain and described as the “monster” for his abrasive style. He told an audience of Washington policymakers last night that the “EU wants an orderly end to Brexit”. These things often happen at the very last minute. We have to wait for the next couple of days and weeks. We have to be very patient,” he said. He could not resist a final word and praise for Michel Barnier, the EU lead Brexit negotiator. “Barnier, our very best divorce lawyer, has shown that it is not very attractive to get divorced from the EU,” he said.