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    I reckon the chances of that happening are somewhere between 0 and 10%, Captain.

    I see Donald Tusk and Merkel both happy to talk about an extension now - and let's be honest, the one thing politicians love is more time, to do anything! It is going to (broadly) play out how Olly Robbins described - the PM's deal or a delay, the question is how much the ERG is ready to risk its life ambition for the sake of perfection.

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