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Courtesy of the Times.
The European Union is preparing for the House of Commons to take control of Brexit talks and believes that there is new “readiness” for Britain to stay in a customs union or in Europe’s single market. Michel Barnier, the EU’s lead negotiator, is on standby for rapid developments after Commons votes next week on the prime minister’s latest proposals and on amendments on the direction of Brexit that could put MPs in the driving seat, heralding a shift in Britain’s exit plan.
“Things could start moving rapidly,” he told the Luxemburger Wort newspaper. “We are ready to be more ambitious if the British decide to shift their red lines, for example by remaining in a customs union, or participating in the single market. I believe there is a readiness in London for that.”
Mr Barnier and other European governments, notably Germany, believe that the extent of Theresa May’s parliamentary defeat over Brexit last week will herald a shift in Britain’s current red lines against a permanent customs union or a “Norway” model of single market membership. EU negotiators are banking on a change in policy and for Commons votes to push the prime minister to go beyond seeking assurances on the current withdrawal agreement’s backstop to avoid hard border in Ireland. “Looking at it objectively, I have the impression that the backstop is not the central issue. Ultimately, the debate in Britain is about what the future will look like. I believe that we can overcome the current difficulties when we discuss that issue together,” he said.
“As you listen to the debates in London, you find that there are currently two majorities in parliament. One against the agreement and one against a chaotic no-deal Brexit. Now, British politicians need to find a positive majority for something.” Senior EU officials and diplomats do not think that the British political crisis has not yet fully played out and they have ruled out any new concessions to Mrs May over the Irish backstop. There is concern in Brussels that many MPs see a motion to rule out a no-deal as a substitute to finding political consensus for a softer Brexit.
“The dynamic of the talks will be determined by whether May comes back with the same demand on the backstop or not,” said a senior EU negotiator. “Everybody knows that the default option is no deal, regardless whether there is a parliamentary motion voted or not. That motion does not get you into a deal.”