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Matthew Parris writing in the Times.
If we could rewind, would we do it again? How many times must leaders have asked themselves this question. When was the moment, the last moment, I could have relented? The rest of us are not so different. It is within the experience of us all to find ourselves drawn by events, by passion, by persuasion or even by inattention, into a project that begins to oppress us just as the appointed time for lift-off approaches. The walls close in. Options narrow. I have friends who got married like that, knowing by the time they approached the altar that it would not end well, but the marquee had been booked and it would surely have killed poor Mum; others who split up because after an angry scene they were too proud to relent; friends who bought a house they knew by the time they exchanged they didn’t like.
Unwillingness to look weak or let others down, embarrassment at upsetting the apple-cart, a half-hearted attempt to rationalise and hope for the best . . . all these things whisper “onward”; and, even as the heart sinks a kind of psychological momentum builds. Head down and just go on with it. “Too late. I’m stuck with it now.” Except you aren’t. Or weren’t. You are now but you weren’t then. Then was your last chance to stop it. Couldn’t you see that, you fool? These “no turning back now” moments are so often, in retrospect, the last moment at which we actually could have turned back. We felt trapped at the time but can see now that this was not the moment we were trapped. It was the moment before we were trapped.
So it is with Brexit. These are the weeks before the year turns that we’ll look back on and understand that this was the last time we really could have turned back. I’m not addressing convinced Brexiteers here. They’ve embraced a faith and are beyond reason. Nor am I addressing it to convinced remainers. They too have nailed their colours to the mast. My intended audience are that great swathe of Conservative MPs — I suspect at least half of them — whose heart isn’t in this but who feel torn, constrained. A most seductive piece of music is now wafting their way. I call it the Finkeltruce song and you will have caught its keynote in my Times colleague Daniel Finkelstein’s column last week (“Jo Johnson’s stance on Brexit is dishonest and dangerous”, November 13). Danny took issue with my “no surrender” message on this page, in which I suggested this was no time to grow up and back down; and snatches of the Finkeltruce song are emerging in phone calls I get from “moderate” Remainer friends on the Tory benches. The government whips are humming it, though mostly under their breath when Brexiteers are within earshot. Not in front of the children. Essentially the lyric is that it is time to heal the Tories’ internal wounds and split the difference over Brexit. Theresa May’s deal (runs the chorus) does that. This is why neither side much loves it. The fact that nobody much loves it is actually the reason why it’s the best outcome (continues the song) because if nobody really wins, nobody really loses; and the Conservative Party, and avid Remainers and Leavers in the country beyond Westminster, can step away from the fray with honour intact, shake hands, and all live happily ever after.
So with a fair wind, both sides, Leavers and Remainers, could learn to live with the May deal (whistle the whips) and give it two cheers if not three when the Commons comes to its “meaningful vote” before Christmas. Lovely stuff. Wonderfully beguiling. And total nonsense. If truce there be, it will be like that Christmas truce in the First World War when soldiers on both sides emerged from their trenches and played football. Church of England bishops love rehearsing this mawkish story in their festive sermons. What they omit to mention is that after those tinselled 24 hours both sides resumed killing each other with undiminished fury. But enough of the soft-falling snow of compromise, blurring for a while the hard outlines of the waiting artillery. Here are the facts. The case for Theresa May’s deal would be worth considering if its driving argument — that this could end the war over Brexit — were true.
It is undoubtedly false. The Brexiteers are not even pretending to accept the fuzzy “political declaration” that Mrs May unveiled in the Commons on Thursday to dispirited Tories. If May’s deal goes through they intend to step back and take another run at her plan as soon as Britain has left the EU. Be clear. They want us properly out of the EU. They have logic on their side when they say that May’s deal is worse even than remaining, and the so-called implementation period that begins after we leave will be their battleground for a new war to which they will return with refreshed ferocity.
Remainers ought to know, and I think do, that the minority Brexit hardline gang are not for meeting in the middle. Under May’s deal we face at least another two years of vicious infighting within the governing party. “Be the grown-ups,” says Danny to us Remainers. I reply that if being adult means giving way to blackmail, count me in with the kids. Fire must sometimes be fought with fire, and the Remain side have thus far surprised Brexiteers with the spirit of their resistance. The eve of this key Commons battle is no time to start conceding. Somebody has to win.
What if we block Brexit again at Westminster? Chaos? Stalemate? We must be prepared to countenance confusion or we will always be the losers, because the other side are careless what damage they do. I finish with an encouraging thought which has yet (I think) to be injected into these arguments. On what might follow defeat of the May plan, the rest of the EU has not yet spoken; nor will they (quite rightly) while our prime minister’s proposals are still alive. However, if or when they fall I would expect, in short order, an initiative from our EU partners, opening the door to extending the negotiating period should Britain wish to conduct a new referendum. This is a likelihood.
Remainer MPs should look beyond a Commons defeat for Mrs May and factor it in. It is not in the EU’s interests that Britain “crash out” without a deal. They will act accordingly. There is perhaps one reason why Remainers should vote for the deal, and I suspect it’s Ken Clarke’s and Nicky Morgan’s reason. If the government is going to lose anyway, then at least we can blame it on the Brexiteers. Should make the Christmas fund-raising do in the constituency a bit easier to navigate . . . But hush! The Brexiteers may be listening.