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  Courtesy of the Times.
  
  How likely is a second Brexit referendum?
  
  The chances of a second referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union has become more likely since Theresa May published her Chequers negotiating plan. But it is still probably less than a 50/50 chance. Before the white paper and the cabinet resignations that followed the prime minister had largely managed to keep both sides of her warring party onboard with her negotiating strategy. That has changed and Mrs May is in the unenviable position of having to fight on three fronts: against the Brexiteers for whom her plan is a sell out; against the hardcore Tory Remainers for whom her plan does not go far enough; and against Brussels that still has deep reservations about what she is asking for. On top of this Labour will almost certainly vote against whatever deal she comes back with — meaning she has almost no chance of getting it through parliament.
  In those circumstances putting the Brexit issue back to the people could be the only option available to her.
  
  It was this political reality that the former education secretary Justine Greening acknowledged when she told The Times: “The only solution is to take the final Brexit decision out of the hands of deadlocked politicians, away from the backroom deals, and give it back to the people.”
  
  Other than Justine Greening who supports a second referendum?
  
  The idea is strongly backed by Remainers who believe it is the only plausible and legitimate way of reversing Brexit. The pro-EU group Open Britain has rebranded itself as the People’s Vote to push for a second referendum. This group is supported by several dozen, mainly Labour, SNP and Lib Dem MPs. At the moment there is no call among Brexiteers for a second vote — although this could change if they sense that the parliamentary arithmetic is against them.
  
  If there was a second referendum what would the question be?
  
  That in itself is a hard question to answer. Ms Greening has suggested that the second referendum should not be a “divisive, binary choice”, proposing instead that voters are presented with three choices: the prime minister’s negotiated deal; staying in the EU; or a clean break. The voting system should involve first and second preference votes, she added. But while this may sound logical it is fraught with difficulties. On the one hand it presupposes that Mrs May will be able to negotiate a deal with Brussels. Brexiteers argue that the EU will offer a bad deal in the hope of making Britain stay inside the bloc if they know it will be put to a vote.

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