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    From the FT.




    British policing, long the envy of the world, is under pressure. Since 2010, police funding in England and Wales has fallen nearly 20 per cent in real terms, with no matching reduction in workload. The long-term fall in crime that started in the 1990s has stalled and serious violence is now increasing. The summer saw a huge spike in 999 calls, which many forces were unable to cope with. Charges and summons — admittedly imperfect measures of police performance — have dropped. Both the police inspectorate and the House of Commons home affairs committee have warned repeatedly that the service is struggling to maintain its performance.

    Calls for more cash are now deafening. London’s Labour mayor Sadiq Khan is perhaps the most vocal, arguing that “cuts have consequences and . . . our police service desperately need more funding right now”. But the government is holding firm. A key line of defence is that there is no clear link between funding cuts and increased crime. As Sajid Javid, the home secretary, said this year about the rise in knife crime: “For anyone to suggest this is caused by police numbers, it is not backed up by the facts.”

    The truth is that we can’t be certain that budget cuts have left us less safe. Crime is a complex phenomenon, influenced by many things other than policing. A major reason for the sixfold fall in car crime between the mid-1993 and 2013 was improved car security. Metal thefts in the UK fell when legislation made it illegal for dealerships to pay for metal in cash, making those selling items more traceable. Trauma in childhood can contribute to criminality later in life, as well as worse health, education and employment outcomes.

    Yet we do know that policing matters. Police strikes are usually accompanied by sharp increases in crime. In 1969, when 5,000 of Montreal’s police and fire workers downed tools in a pay dispute, bank robberies doubled before a near-instant riot. Studies have proved that so-called hotspot policing — ensuring police visit crime hotspots at times when crime usually takes place — reduces crime in those areas significantly, without pushing it into neighbouring communities.

    More money could, therefore, make a difference. However, funding can only be justified if it is spent on the right things. There are two key pitfalls to avoid. The first is seeking to reintroduce routine patrols in low crime communities. Random patrols, unlike targeted ones, make no difference to crime rates. New digital engagement channels could provide public reassurance at a much lower cost.

    The second pitfall is ploughing money back into pursuing investigations that are currently being deprioritised by the police — those that are less serious and where there is limited initial evidence. In an ideal world, all crime would be investigated, of course. But it’s not clear how effective increased conviction rates are in terms of preventing future crimes. Those earning prison terms come out no less likely to offend than when they went in, and the costs are huge compared to effective prevention.

    Not many argue for the types of prevention the police should invest in. They should not, for example, be leading the necessary effort to help children develop the cognitive skills that can prevent future criminality. It’s hard to get a family to engage with support if you knock on the door in uniform looking for little Jonny. And they are not the right agency to resolve a mental health crisis — even if negligence by other services is now forcing them to do so.

    Instead, new funds must be invested in hard-edged, evidence-based policing tools like hotspot patrols, rapid deployment to limit risks of retaliation following violent incidents, and problem solving. This last nebulous category is perhaps the most important.

    Problem-oriented policing, a term coined by the American criminologist Herman Goldstein, involves studying the details of where, when and why crime is happening and developing solutions that might be implemented by the police themselves, by communities or by other agencies.

    Neighbour disputes can sometimes be solved by mediation or threats of housing sanctions, preventing endless police call-outs. London has recently succeeded in reducing moped robberies with improved security and headline-grabbing car chases. Night-time disorder can be stemmed by improving access to transport (people too often get into fights while milling around after closing time) and by ensuring the police and security guards at licensed premises are in constant communication about risky situations and troublesome individuals.

    One of the important problems police should be focusing resources on is online crime. Deloitte consulting surveyed leaders from a quarter of UK police forces and not one of them felt ready for the challenges of technology-enabled crime. The country needs more national — and indeed internationally based — technical specialists who are not daunted (or bored) by the job of tracing IP addresses to users and understanding the ease of hacking new internet-enabled devices.

    Tackling the millions of online fraud offences each year also requires police who can engage more effectively with the banks, online platforms and retailers whose expenditure on tackling online crime now outweighs that of the state. And while more “bobbies on the beat” won’t be the answer to the biggest online threats, officers across the country will need to be equipped to deal with the vast volumes of digital evidence surrounding every crime today, and to support victims of online offences.

    If we invest in policing organisations that are focused on prevention, and responding to and harnessing technology effectively, it will be money well spent.

    The writer is author of ‘Criminal: The Truth About Why People Do Bad Things’

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