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    Lets be clear Imperial are one of a number of academic teams that are running epidemiological models on Coronavirus; many of these models are in the same ball-park as the Imperial one. Like all good forecasters they used their model to predict a range of outcomes based not only on different strategies but also on different amounts of testing, different levels the health services could ramp up capacity to etc. these were presented to the relevant government teams to be used as inputs to their decision making. These models are re-run regularly as further data sets become available from scientists around the world. There is still a lot we do not know, or is very unclear so they cannot be included in the models - yet! These include the role or otherwise of children/teens as carriers, the real efficacy of various lengths of isolation period (7/14/more days) in reducing transmission, whether you can re-catch it, what medicines are effective in treating the symptoms and which exacerbate them etc.etc.

    One of the models was based on a "do nothing at all" approach and indeed suggested as many as 2.5m deaths, but this has never been one of the strategies pursued by HMG. The current approach when modelled suggest a potential death toll in the 10's of thousands, this for many is too many but realistically from a population of 60+million this is low. In fact based on the latest models and representations from scientists and doctors the government will be further ramping up testing.

    As the Imperial rep said on the Today programme there is a fine line and balance between the health and wellbeing of our citizens and the economic health of our nation, take measure that are too draconian and we will have a decimated economy at the end of this do too little and the population will be decimated severely hampering our ability to work out of the inevitable recession post Coronavirus.

    Anyway lets all buckle up and enjoy the ride as it is going to get bumpy for a while

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