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    1. Some of Tom's post 2 is factually incorrect regarding NICs. Sufficient to disprove the point, anyway.
    2. An increase in part-timers when total employment is not falling is a classic positive advance leading indicator. (18-24 months)
    3. ' More people means more jobs, even in economies in neutral.'. Yes, but such jobs are only of benefit to the economy if a. they are in the private sector and b. they are not taken by gastarbeiter who will remit the majority of their earnings abroad.

    I predicted the downturn in summer 2007; it was not as bad as I thought it would be. For a whole host of reasons I now predict a major private sector-led bounce in 2014-17 if the Tories remain in the driving seat. If Labour get in in 2015 we shall see a whole lotta growth from 2016-2018 but the nation will be bankrupt by 2020, when Balls will hand it back to the Tories.

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