WE SHOULD CONGRATULATE THE GOVT BUT...
- Keith Sansum1
- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,948
19 October 2012 07:58196668Unemployment is down and all those involved in getting the figure down should be congratulated.
But we should note within these figures a few things;
1; A lot more part time jobs are part of this figure
2;long term unemployment is rising
So whilst things in one corner look better, we still have a long long way to go.ALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS - 19 October 2012 09:08196676"No one... should be beguiled by claims that the economy is "starting to recover" primarily on the basis of rising employment levels alone, since this ignores the fact that the UK working age population has been growing consistently over time. No one would say Norway has a worse performance than Spain because it has only 2.5 million in work while Spain has 18 million. And the same applies to comparisons of UK performance over time when the population has been growing - by around 1 million since 2008 and by around 6 million since 1971. More people means more jobs, even in economies in neutral. So it makes little sense to compare performance, even over relatively short time periods, using levels when populations are changing.
The employment rate - ie the level divided by population - is a much better guide in these circumstances and that has been broadly flat, allowing for sampling variation, over the last three years - much more consistent with the flat GDP data. Add this to a fall in real wages in this downturn - not just at the bottom but across the distribution - which has traded off some jobs for incomes, unlike in previous downturns, and the employment puzzle becomes less of a mystery.
Professor Jonathan Wadsworth
Economics department, Royal Holloway College, University of London."
" If I employ a full-time worker at £12,000 a year, I pay a further £550 to the chancellor as my contribution to national insurance. When that worker leaves I can replace them with two part-timers at £6,000 and not pay any of that £550. If I replace three full-timers with six part-timers I save £1,650. If any one of those part-timers is sick or wants time off, I have five other experienced workers anxious to take up overtime and extra shifts. Further, my six part-timers are unlikely to become eligible for statutory sick pay because of "waiting day" arrangements. In addition, workforce turnover ensures they are unlikely to ever become eligible for redundancy payments if things get any worse than now.
Also, no one in Treasury forecasting seems to have noticed that when I convert three full-timers, as above, to six part-timers, the Treasury loses a total of about £5,400 in income tax, employee's and employer's NI. Thus we can have an expanding workforce that pays less tax.
Russ Russell
Weston-super-Mare, Somerset"
etc.,etc.
From...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2012/oct/18/employment-figures-puzzle-solvedIgnorance is bliss, bliss is happiness, I am happy...to draw your attention to the possible connectivity in the foregoing. - 19 October 2012 10:02196689so many things can be read into unmployment figures, governments over the years have had a lot of practice at putting spin on them.
good point in the above post, just to add we don't know how many of the new jobs created are zero hours contracts. - 19 October 2012 11:55196712Yes Howard, zero hours contracts are all too common these days
- Keith Sansum1
- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,948
19 October 2012 13:39196733some good points boys and girlsALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS - 19 October 2012 15:48196755"There are lies, damned lies, and statistics." Benjamin Disraeli.True friends stab you in the front.
- Keith Sansum1
- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,948
19 October 2012 16:00196760Being in long term unemployment, with little prospect of employment causes so many issuesALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS - 19 October 2012 22:47196840Excellent post 2, Tom. It does explain a lot.Chanters, Drums and Drones Potty Time http://youtu.be/99fMqpjnXYA
Rule Britannia!
Kent First http://youtu.be/04F3mAP3fV4 Keep banging on http://youtu.be/qYCU_SKmkGQ - Keith Sansum1
- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,948
20 October 2012 23:31196933sure our baz will be on soonALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS - 21 October 2012 00:421969351. Some of Tom's post 2 is factually incorrect regarding NICs. Sufficient to disprove the point, anyway.
2. An increase in part-timers when total employment is not falling is a classic positive advance leading indicator. (18-24 months)
3. ' More people means more jobs, even in economies in neutral.'. Yes, but such jobs are only of benefit to the economy if a. they are in the private sector and b. they are not taken by gastarbeiter who will remit the majority of their earnings abroad.
I predicted the downturn in summer 2007; it was not as bad as I thought it would be. For a whole host of reasons I now predict a major private sector-led bounce in 2014-17 if the Tories remain in the driving seat. If Labour get in in 2015 we shall see a whole lotta growth from 2016-2018 but the nation will be bankrupt by 2020, when Balls will hand it back to the Tories.I'm an optimist. But I'm an optimist who takes my raincoat - Harold Wilson - 21 October 2012 07:21196942I thought we were still bankrupt Peter after the last Labour Government ?
I though it was only people who get older, that have short-term memory loss, but it seems that all Labour people (supporters, Councillors and MPs) have it too - whatever their age.
Roger - Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
21 October 2012 07:41196943mmmm yes roger,doing a barryw by the back door.tut tut you naughty chap.can we have some tory blam,e here as well,seeing that you are saying about short term memory loss,its not its altzimers that we have got.
- 21 October 2012 07:49196946I think the blame for our current state is well established Brian, I do think though, that it seems to me that not enough is being done to put money in people's pockets so they can spend some of it - and not just on bills.
Businesses can't take on staff until they start selling more of what they make or sell. Too much austerity is not good for people as well as the economy.
Roger - Brian Dixon
- Location: Dover
- Registered: 23 Sep 2008
- Posts: 23,940
21 October 2012 07:53196947roger,i know what you meen but can some one tell cameron/osbourne that,or would they be to scared to. - 21 October 2012 08:32196950# 10...no longer a closet.....
- Keith Sansum1
- Location: london
- Registered: 25 Aug 2010
- Posts: 23,948
21 October 2012 12:33196992There we go reg;
And there was our peter saying he' s not a tory supporter!!!!!!
We can all blame the past, but we now look at what the cobbled together govt has been doing, or going to do, they have had years to put it right, and even baz is not happy they are not doing enough.
Roger of course is correct the public spending cuts, and cuts in general affect the poor
something a few of us have been saying for some timeALL POSTS ARE MY OWN PERSONAL VIEWS