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  Sid - ignore National Uniform Swing, most commentators focus on that as do most predictive models, a big mistake. You are correct in the the Conservatives are doing better in the battlegrounds where it really counts.
  
  You may have missed one of my blogs recently when I addressed this matter.
  
  On politicalbetting.com a new analysis revealed that the Conservatives could get an overal majority with as little as a 5% lead. A 6/7% lead should be enough though I would want a much better working majority than that would produce.
  
  I am myself a traditional right wing Tory but what comforts me is that despite a broadening of the message/appeal to a wider range of people the core traditional values remain the same.

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