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Keith, the swing of the balance from Tories to UKIP is still in process, and until there is a general election, it is quite impossible for any party to win seats in Parliament.
The exception being the by-elections, in which the UK Independence Party have a general tendency, in the English constituencies, of becoming second or third.
So if you are in reality a Labour supporter, then the last thing you'd want to see is Conservative and UKIP supporters uniting in significant - and sufficient - numbers around the UKIP banner.
By downplaying UKIP, and giving the impression the Tory party are "second", after Labour, you're only hoping that Labour will win, by banking on a split vote that would open the doors to your party at the next GE.
But most supporters of the Blues know full well that, in order to prevent a Labour victory, they would have to either vote one party (Conservative) or the other party (UKIP).
Incidentally, Keith, David Cameron has announced officially, two days ago, that the main priority of the Tories is to oppose Labour and prevent them getting in again.
That probably - and almost certainly - means the Conservatives are about to announce some pact with UKIP.
Once this happens, Keith, you will know for sure that Labour have lost, because the coming campaign will be against the Labour party, and both Tories and UKIP will put their strength together - probably in an electoral coalition.
DC has given up the idea of opposing UKIP, so a pact is on the horizon!